RADIO
The transactions fantasy owners make this time of year can appear odd in a vacuum, as significantly better players are sometimes dumped in favor of players who only contribute in a category or two. The roster moves make sense when you look at the standings and notice that the team in question only cares about certain categories, but the dumped player may suit your needs perfectly.
That said, you still need to avoid adding players with YTD numbers far exceeding their actual talent level. Andrelton Simmons appears to have learned how to hit at first glance, but a closer inspection reveals that he's the same guy he has always been. Tim Beckham is lighting it up in Baltimore, but nothing he's doing looks sustainable. Let's take a closer look at why, shall we?
Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo! leagues.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Andrelton Simmons (SS, LAA) 76% Owned
No one was really paying attention, but this glove-first player is slashing a solid .293/.346/.445 with 12 HR and 17 SB (four CS) this season. That actually makes him a viable fantasy play across the board! Unfortunately, nothing in his profile suggests that he's capable of keeping this up.
Let's start with the speed. Simmons tied a professional best with 10 steals (one CS) last season, but you have to go all the way back to his 2012 season at Double-A for the last time he cracked double digits. He snagged 26 at High-A in 2011, but the 18 CS accompanying that total likely explain why he had a red light for half a decade. Simmons could steal a few more bags if both he and the Angels feel like it, but you probably shouldn't bet your season on it.
Simmons's power forecast is even bleaker. Discounting 2013 when he hit 17 HR, Simmons's best power output in a single season was seven homers. His FB% is up relative to last season (25.6% to 30.5%), but remains too low to project much power out of him. His contact quality has also increased, from a below average 89.1 mph average airborne exit velocity last season to a roughly average mark of 91.1 mph this year. He's also doubled his rate of Brls/BBE, though it becomes much less exciting when the numbers involved are 1.2% and 2.7%.
Simmons is also pulling his flies (32.5% vs. 21% last year and 26.7% career) with increased frequency, so all of his power indicators are moving in the right direction. The resulting HR/FB (9.8%) is still significantly below average, however, suggesting that Simmons can only barely contribute in the power categories if absolutely everything breaks his way. You don't want to count on that for a marginal contribution, do you?
That brings us to batting average, the one area where Simmons may have upside. He never strikes out, as his excellent 10.1% K% is actually higher than his 7.9% rate from last season. The underlying SwStr% is virtually unchanged (5.5% last year, 5.4% this), suggesting that Simmons will put a ball in play nearly every time up. Simmons's balls in play have performed at roughly a league average rate so far (.304 BABIP), but that becomes harder to count on when his career BABIP of .279 is considered.
The biggest difference between Simmons this season and over his career is his ground balls, which have posted a BABIP of .264 against a career rate of .221. His average exit velocity on the ground is down relative to last season (84.5 mph to 83.5 mph), so he's not hitting the ball any harder. He's never been a pull hitter either (50.1% career Pull% on grounders), so he can't change his approach to improve his performance on the ground. Ultimately, sheer dumb luck is the only explanation for Simmons's ground ball BABIP spike.
His 19.6% LD% seems low, but it's actually higher than his career rate (18.9%). His IFFB% (7.6% to 11.4%) is also up, so nothing in his profile supports a league average BABIP. His excellent strikeout rate will prevent his batting average from completely cratering, but it won't be a huge asset once his BABIP normalizes. He won't hit for power, and his speed is iffy at best. The Angels usually hit him fifth, a batting order slot that represents almost all of his fantasy value moving forward. You don't usually want to roster guys like this.
Verdict: Chump
Tim Beckham (SS/2B, BAL) 68% Owned
Lauded by many as the steal of the Trade Deadline, Beckham has slashed .299/.347/.487 with 17 HR and five stolen bases (four CS) over 419 PAs with the Rays and Orioles. The steals are almost certainly unsustainable with a success rate that low, especially since his minor league history also includes ugly success rates. Discounting speed, we're left with HR and AVG to consider.
Beckham hit 14 HR over 438 PAs with the Rays in 2015 and 2016 combined, so his current power output isn't that much higher than it was before. His FB% has fallen considerably relative to last year (36.2% to 30.2%) though, so he doesn't have the profile to keep doing this. A 21.3% HR/FB may seem sustainable considering his career rate of 18.1%, but remember that this season is roughly half of his MLB experience (865 career PAs). The sample size isn't large enough to mean anything yet.
This doesn't mean that Beckham won't hit for any power, just that he won't keep hitting this many homers. His average airborne exit velocity is 94.8 mph, a mark considerably above the MLB average. He has also improved his Brls/BBE relative to last season, 6% to 9.3%. Beckham could be a true slugger if he starts hitting more fly balls, but as of now he should be viewed as an average power option with upside.
That's a much rosier picture than his batting average outlook. Beckham is striking out a completely unacceptable 29.1% of the time. His eye is all right (33.8% chase rate), but he swings and misses a lot (15.5% SwStr%). It takes a ludicrous BABIP to post a favorable batting average when three out of every 10 PAs ends in a strikeout, and Beckham's is currently .396.
Obviously, Beckham is not a true talent .396 BABIP hitter. His ground balls have a BABIP of .379, a number too high for even a pure speedster to sustain. His career BABIP on ground balls is .311, but remember that this season's .379 mark accounts for roughly half of his career sample. Beckham's average exit velocity on the ground is a solid 83.6 mph, but he's still due for massive regression on the ground.
Beckham's 23% LD% is unsupported by his previous MLB experience (20.6% career) or minor league track record, suggesting that he will hit fewer line drives in the future as well. An IFFB% of 2.5% also seems unsustainable for a power guy, so more pop-ups are likely moving forward. His true talent BABIP is probably 80 points lower than his current mark, making Beckham a potential batting average liability over the rest of the season.
The Orioles are using Beckham out of the leadoff slot, a batting order position he almost certainly loses when his average tanks. Beckham is poorly utilized there anyway, as power bats want runners on in front of them to pad their RBI totals. Ride Beckham while he's hot, but understand that he is not the second coming of Mike Trout. Regression is coming, and it will be painful.
Verdict: Chump
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