RADIO
The following analysis is presented with some misgivings. Both Chase Headley and Starlin Castro were moved this offseason, making them candidates for a change of scenery examination. However, these veteran players do not present an obvious fit with their presumably rebuilding clubs and have been included in trade speculation, with Castro reportedly asking to be moved to a contender. Should they swap clubs again, some of the analysis below may become outdated.
That said, there is a chance that no additional moves are forthcoming. If this proves to be the case, the colder portion of baseball's hot stove season is the perfect time to take a closer look at them.
Assuming they stay put, let's see what Headley's return to San Diego and Castro's trip to Miami might mean for their fantasy value.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Chase Headley (3B/1B, SD)
Headley provided useful roster glue in 2017, slashing .273/.352/.406 with 12 HR and nine steals while earning eligibility at both corner infield positions. Sadly, it seems incredibly likely that it was his last season of fantasy relevance.
Traditionally a solid source of stolen bases, Headley's Statcast Sprint Speed declined to 25.7 ft./sec last season. He had been below average in each of the previous two seasons (26.3 ft./sec in 2016, 26.0 in 2015), but last year's number ranks 395th out of the 451 players with at least 10 "max effort" runs. Thirty four-year olds are not known for recovering their former quickness, so Headley should not be counted on for steals in 2018.
The loss of his former athleticism could also cost Headley some batting average points moving forward. He actually managed to beat his .328 career BABIP with a .341 mark last year, but needed a 24.9% LD% to do it. Headley has an above average career LD% (22.3%) and has actually beaten that mark every year since 2012, but at least mild regression is likely in 2018.
Headley generally avoids fly balls (31.7% FB% last year, 33.3% career), a significant contributing factor to his plus BABIP. His .241 BABIP on grounders last season was virtually identical to his career mark of .242, but a loss of footspeed and borderline pull tendency (59.6% Pull% on ground balls) could cause this number to crater in the near future.
Headley's power indicators are also trending in the wrong direction. His 90.4 mph average airborne exit velocity was right in line with his previous totals (90.1 mph in 2016, 90.4 in 2015), but his rate of Brls/BBE declined below five percent for the first time ever (4.6%). He also pulled just 14.9% of his flies versus a career rate of 20.1%, making it harder to muscle the ball out of the yard with his limited raw power.
As a switch-hitter, Headley will be adversely affected by Petco Park as both a righty (93 HR Factor vs. 111 at Yankee Stadium) and lefty (88 vs. 124). He only managed a 9.9% HR/FB last season, so an even lower rate plus a general lack of airborne batted balls will make it difficult for him to crack double digits in the HR column this coming year.
To emphasize the point, he slashed .291/.378/.443 at Yankee Stadium last year against a road line of .259/.330/.376. While currently projected to hit third for rebuilding San Diego, not even a bad team will stick with Headley's road numbers in a premium batting order slot for very long. That will limit his counting stats on top of everything else.
If your league uses OBP as a category, Headley's superior eye (10.2% BB%, 25.9% chase rate) and league average K% (22.5%, 10.6% SwStr%) give him potential as a one-category guy you can take with your last pick. Otherwise, let somebody else chase his former glory.
Verdict: Chump
Starlin Castro (2B, MIA)
Castro enjoyed one of his finest seasons ever in 2017, slashing .300/.338/.454 with 16 long balls and a couple of steals. Castro hasn't swiped 10 bags since 2012 though, so anybody expecting a running game is likely to be disappointed.
Anybody expecting a reasonable HR total is also setting themselves up for failure. Castro hits even fewer fly balls than Headley does (28% FB% last year, 30.3% career), making him very reliant on his HR/FB for any power numbers he produces. His 16.2% HR/FB last year was strong, but his career 8.7% rate suggests significant regression in 2018. He managed a favorable mark in 2016 as well (15%), but his more recent success has more to do with the park he is leaving than anything else.
As noted above, Yankee Stadium inflates right-handed power significantly with a HR Factor of 111. Marlins Park did the opposite last year with a HR Factor of 92. That equates to roughly a 38 percent reduction in Castro's HR total, turning last year's 16 long balls into 12. Once again, Castro's home/road splits (.323/.363/.516 vs. .279/.314/.394 support the idea that a fair amount of his fantasy value was tied to his home park.
That's a shame, because Castro actually has the raw power (93.3 mph average airborne exit velocity last year, 92.1 mph in 2016) to do something with fly balls if he hit them. Sadly, his launch angle would need to change significantly to harness this potential. A 4.5% rate of Brls/BBE just isn't good enough.
Without power or speed, Castro relies on the BABIP gods and his lineup slot to generate fantasy value. His .347 BABIP last season helped, and his new park is more conducive to singles hitting than the old one (102 vs. 99). His LD% was normal (20.1% vs. 20% career), but his BABIP on ground balls may not prove sustainable (.284 vs. .262 career). His average exit velocity on the ground was above average (84.1 mph), but was actually Castro's lowest mark in the Statcast era (86.4 mph in 2016, 84.6 mph in 2015). His 57.9% Pull% on grounders wasn't bad, but he hit just .219 in 34 PAs against the shift last year.
Castro also set a career worst in IFFB% last season with a 12.1% rate, but his low FB% mitigates the BABIP damage pop-ups can do. More damaging is an uptick in K% (19.7%, 16.5% career) supported by a league average SwStr% (11%). Castro's eye is meh (34.2% chase rate), and he's not enough of a threat to earn a significant quantity of walks (4.9% BB% last year).
Miami's fire sale could well leave Castro as a three-hitter, warts and all, if he stays there. That situation that would give Castro a reasonable floor if he was available at a discount, especially in NL-only leagues. Unfortunately, somebody is going to pay for his 2017 stat line and end up very sad.
Verdict: Chump
