X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Danny Espinosa

By Keith Allison on Flickr [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Last season saw a significant uptick in league-wide home runs, reducing the value of power-only profiles in the fantasy game. No one has conclusively determined why homers were up, but some people are assuming that it will remain the case for 2017.

It might, but I look forward to drafting power at a discount in 2017 thanks to the assumptions of others. I'm especially interested in options at positions that traditionally do not provide fantasy owners with power.

In that vein, let's look at the newest Los Angeles Angel, Danny Espinosa.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

A Deeper Dive - Danny Espinosa

Espinosa's 24 dingers as a SS in 2016 would have attracted much more attention in any season except the last one. When everyone cracks 20 bombs, it is a lot easier to point out Espinosa's .209/.306/.378 triple slash line and 29% K% as serious red flags. Traded to the Angels for virtually nothing, I expect a career year from their new second sacker.

The first reason is simply playing time. Projected as a bench piece in Washington, Espinosa assumes starting duties in Anaheim with nothing particularly noteworthy waiting to take his job. Does Cliff Pennington really strike you as a big league regular? Espinosa also boasts a slick glove, something the Angels want to use to cover up a questionable pitching staff. Benching him would therefore be counterproductive to the team's strategy.

While I can't explain the league-wide power surge, I can explain Espinosa's. He hit more fly balls last season, increasing his FB% from 36.8% in 2015 to 43.1% last year. He also made more authoritative airborne contact, as his IFFB% decreased from 15.2% to 12.1% in the same time frame. His Pull% on flies also increased (from 26.1% to 35%), causing me to trust more in his HR/FB spike (14.1% to 17.1%) than I otherwise would. Assuming everyday playing time, Espinosa should hit 20-25 HR again next year.

He's done that before, so a career year will require improvement in some of the other numbers I described above. Let's start with his batting average, which was dragged down last year by a tiny BABIP (.261) and an insane strikeout rate. Despite his career-long struggle with batting average, Espinosa's career BABIP is .292, with a .299 mark as recently as 2015. The problem last year was his fly balls, which posted a BABIP of just .051 against a career rate of .134. The FB% spike probably prevents him from making it all the way to an overall .290 BABIP again, but a slight increase should be forthcoming.

Lest you're thinking the shift is the cause of Espinosa's struggles, it isn't. He hit .322 against the shift last year thanks in part because he can bunt for a hit. He had eight bunt hits last year, and his speedy shortstop profile suggests that it was not a fluke. Bunting is a hard skill for sluggers to learn, but Espinosa has mastered it.

Espinosa has always struck out too often, but advanced metrics suggest that he should have struck out less often last year. His batting eye actually improved, leading to a career best 33.2% O-Swing%. His O-Contact% cratered, however, falling to an unsightly 50.6%. This number is fluky low even for Espinosa. His SwStr% increased only slightly relative to 2015 (14.1% to 14.9%), meaning that swinging at fewer bad pitches mostly negated the O-Contact% problem. If the latter number regresses while the improved eye remains, a career best K% seems possible.

Don't get me wrong, Espinosa will still strike out too much. Even a K% of 24% would represent a significant improvement over last year's 29% though, boosting his batting average a little in the process. Between the BABIP and K% corrections, he could hit something like .240 next year, only a slight minus relative to the league wide average of .255. That is a worthwhile price to pay for a middle infielder with pop.

Espinosa can still run and the Angels figure to have little behind him in their batting order, so I will take the over on last season's nine steals. If you want to dream, Espinosa has some chance to go 20/20! Even if he doesn't, his power and eventual eligibility at both middle infield slots should make him worth a roster spot in our game.

Verdict: Champ

 


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

WIN MORE IN 2024

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Alexis Diaz fantasy baseball closers rankings draft sleepers waiver wire pickups

MLB Closers and Saves: Fantasy Baseball Depth Charts

Saves are an important component for many fantasy baseball leagues. Closers are one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball, and one of the highest turnover positions in MLB. Each year, closers drop like flies and many MLB teams make in-season changes due to injuries or poor performance. In addition to closers and saves, relief... Read More


Do These Prospects Matter for Fantasy Baseball?

The 2023 fantasy baseball season has been highlighted by the promotion of nearly two-dozen top prospects to the major leagues to impact fantasy rosters. This week's edition features one player who was called up as the piece was being written. Will these strong performers join the ranks of those who have moved to the majors... Read More


clayton kershaw fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

articles report test

this is a test


Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Welcome back! It's Week 24 of our fantasy baseball Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups series! There are just two precious weeks left, and every start is becoming more and more important as most of the fantasy baseball world is in playoff matchups. If you've made it this far, there's a good chance you don't really... Read More


Aaron Nola - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Starts & Sits for MLB Week 23 - All Starting Pitcher Matchups for Fantasy Baseball

Welcome back RotoBallers! Big week in fantasy leagues as we approach the end of the season and playoffs! As always, we are here with our starting pitcher starts and sits series to help you set those winning lineups for the week ahead! For those who are not familiar, RotoBaller puts out a weekly grid of... Read More


Gunnar Henderson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Points League Hitters: Waiver Wire Pickups for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Welcome to Week 24 and our fantasy baseball waiver wire hitters. We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax. Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform,... Read More


Brayan Bello - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Two-Start Pitcher Streamers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Yo, it's Jon Anderson, continuing to run the show here in terms of late-summer fantasy baseball writing. There are just two weeks left of streaming pitchers, so let's make it count! This weekly fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups column aims to identify starting pitchers expected to make two starts in the upcoming fantasy baseball week,... Read More


Fantasy Baseball Week 24 Injury News and Updates: Tyler Glasnow, Ozzie Albies, Starling Marte, Anthony Rizzo, Zack Wheeler

September is now more than half over. The baseball season is slowly coming to a close. At this point, fantasy players are pushing for their league titles or just playing for pride. Major League Baseball teams continue to do the same and injuries continue to happen, now with the dreaded term "done for the season"... Read More


Joe Musgrove - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/17/22)

Happy Saturday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More


DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/17/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups

Today's MLB slates are split up as is the norm for September baseball. Half the guys I think will play will not, so you have to be as flexible as Gumby to play MLB DFS in September, but that also means that there is a lot of money out there should you dare to dive... Read More


Max Fried - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/15/22)

Happy Friday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More


Robbie Ray - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, Draft Sleepers

DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/16/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups

Fridays are big MLB DFS days and offer a nice respite from the NFL, who command our attention on Thursdays, Sundays, and Mondays. This slate, like most Friday slates, is a big one as all MLB teams are in action today and 28 of those teams are on tonight's 14-game DFS slate. This was a... Read More


kyle farmer fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Top Hitter Streamers and Starts for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

There are only two weeks left of fantasy baseball! It's going to be very sad when the season comes to an end, but the impending end of the season means that these are the most important, and therefore most fun weeks of the year – for those of you still competing, at least. I have... Read More


TODAY’S MOST VIEWED PLAYERS

rotating JS ad test

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF