Champ or Chump: Franchy Cordero and Walker Buehler

The arbitrary service time manipulations have come to an end, providing fantasy owners with plenty of highly regarded prospects to choose from on the waiver wire. The biggest name to get the call is undoubtedly Ronald Acuna Jr., but buyer beware. I wrote him up here, concluding that he's too raw to help fantasy owners immediately. A weak start at Triple-A (.232/.321/.304 with a homer, four steals, and unhealthy 28.2% K%) did nothing to change my mind.

Instead, let's examine a couple of less heralded options. Franchy Cordero flashes four of five tools including power and speed, enticing many fantasy owners with his potential. Walker Buehler made his first MLB start for the Dodgers last Monday. Is either your missing link to fantasy success?

Let's find out!

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Franchy Cordero (OF, SD) 12% Owned

Cordero is currently slashing .234/.265/.511 with four homers and a pair of steals, a line very reminiscent of his performance over 99 PAs with the Padres last year (.228/.276/.424 with three homers and a steal). His tools are loud, but sadly the 23-year old appears unable to harness them in the immediate future.

Cordero absolutely obliterates baseballs, averaging an airborne exit velocity of 100.8 mph through 29 batted ball events this season. He probably can't sustain that, but it was almost as good in his brief taste of MLB last year (97.3 mph). Both figures come with an elite rate of Brls/BBE (20.7% this year, 14.3% last), making a 20% HR/FB believable.

Unfortunately, Cordero doesn't lift enough baseballs to truly capitalize on his raw power. His career FB% of 30.3% just isn't high enough to project that many homers out of him even if his Statcast numbers are excellent. His MLB career is a small sample, but his minor league track record suggests more of the same moving forward.

Cordero's High Minors experience is limited to 264 PAs with Double-A San Antonio in 2016 and 419 PAs with Triple-A El Paso last season. He slashed .306/.356/.478 with six big flies at the former level, managing a 15.8% HR/FB despite the ballpark's aggressive suppression of HR (0.683 ballpark factor from 2014-2016). That's a testament to his contact quality! He still wasn't on a 20 HR pace over a full season thanks to avoiding fly balls like the plague (21.7% FB%).

Triple-A El Paso is in the Pacific Coast League and inflates runs (1.085), HR (1.063), and Hits (1.083). That removes much of the excitement from Cordero's .326/.369/.603 line with 17 dingers at the level last year. Again, Cordero failed to lift the ball with any consistency (32.3% FB%), resulting in a HR total falling well short of his HR/FB (19.5%).

Cordero is also brilliantly fast, posting a Statcast Sprint Speed of 29.4 ft./sec this year after 29.8 ft./sec last year. He swiped bags at a reasonable clip at both Double-A (12-for-18) and Triple-A (15-for-19), indicating a willingness to use his speed for the benefit of fantasy owners whenever the opportunity arises. The problem is that he strikes out too often to get a lot of opportunities.

Cordero whiffed a ludicrous 44.4% of the time in his big league trial last season thanks to a high chase rate (38%) and SwStr% (21.1%). Both indicators are better this year (30.8% chase, 15.1% SwStr%), but there's still too much swing and miss here (38% K%) to project anything resembling a reasonable batting average.

Again, his minor league history suggests that the Ks are no fluke. He struck out 25.4% of the time against a 6.4% BB% at Double-A, providing some hope that he would be okay at higher levels. He wasn't, striking out 28.2% at Triple-A against a walk rate of 5.5%. His batting average was still reasonable at both levels thanks to insane BABIPs (.401 at Double-A, .431 at Triple-A), but he won't maintain those levels in the majors.

To be fair, Cordero should be a plus-BABIP guy. His ground ball exit velocity is strong (91.5 mph this year, 83.6 mph last year), he can run, and he rarely hits fly balls. However, he has no history of hitting an above average number of line drives (20% LD% at Double-A, 21.9% at Triple-A), a key piece of the ridiculous BABIP puzzle. Without liners, he's likely to top out at a BABIP of .330 or so. That's very high, but not enough to make up for a K% pushing 40%.

The Padres are also treating Cordero as a fourth outfielder, not a key piece of their future. He has already played all three outfield positions this season, suggesting that he needs defensive flexibility to stick in the major leagues. He also bounces around the lineup regularly, already hitting leadoff, second, third, fifth, and sixth.

The result is a guy with great raw power, but a launch angle that prevents him from tapping into it. Great speed, but a batting average low enough to limit its usefulness. He'll look great at times, but otherwise contribute nothing to a fantasy roster. Put another way, he's Drew Stubbs.

Verdict: Chump

Walker Buehler (SP, LAD) 24% Owned

Buehler threw 9 1/3 IP in relief last year, but made his first career start last Monday night against the Marlins. The Marlins are not really an MLB-caliber opponent, but Buehler still acquitted himself well (5 IP, 5 K, 3 BB, 0 ER). Going five innings is important because it means that he'll have an opportunity to rack up Ws.

Strikeouts are what make Buehler interesting from a fantasy perspective. He split the 2017 season (his first in professional baseball) across four levels: 16 1/3 IP at High-A, 49 IP at Double-A, 23 1/3 IP at Triple-A, and last year's cup of coffee with the Dodgers. None of those are large enough to really sink your teeth into, but look at his K% marks at each level: 42.9%, 32.8%, 34%, 29.6%. That is a lot of Ks, regardless of the quality of his opposition.

Buehler gets enough strikeouts to have a little leeway with walks, and his BB% has generally hovered between 7 and 8 percent on the farm. While he may walk a few more hitters than you'd like, he's not a total disaster in leagues using K/BB ratio or WHIP.

Buehler has a five pitch mix: fastball, sinker, slider, curve, and a seldom-thrown change. The heater is eye-popping, averaging 97.7 mph and touching 100 at the big league level. It also has a high spin rate, averaging 2,401 RPM this season and 2,441 RPM last year. This blend of velocity and movement gives the pitch a career 10.2% SwStr%.

You'd think that Buehler's sinker would be strictly inferior to his heater, but it's actually fundamentally different. Its spin rate is only 2,151 RPM, making it good at generating weak ground balls. Buehler's 51.3% GB% at Double-A was his lowest mark at any level, and this pitch is likely a reason why batters find it difficult to elevate his offerings.

His slider and curve both have underwhelming SwStr% numbers at the MLB level (6.9% and 5.4%, respectively), but his elite K% rates on the farm suggest that they are better than they have shown so far. Buehler throws each for a strike when he wants to as well (51.7% and 46.4% Zone%, respectively), suggesting that they may be effective in and out of the zone. Overall, it's an elite repertoire.

Buehler was optioned to High-A after his last start, potentially frightening some fantasy owners off. The move was just classic Dodgers roster manipulation though, and he's expected to make his next scheduled start. He's also RP-eligible based on his usage last year, adding flexibility in leagues differentiating between starters and relievers. If you have an NA slot or need a jolt of upside in your staff, Buehler is a worthwhile add in all formats.

Verdict: Champ

More 2018 Player Outlooks