Champ or Chump: Jon Gray and Luis Castillo

The early portion of any fantasy draft is filled with household names, but rarely gets truly exciting. Things don't get interesting until it's late enough to start calling out your sleepers, the guys that you just love but want to wait on because you can. Get those picks right, and you can enjoy watching your favorite players dominate your league as you coast to a title.

Unfortunately, sometimes your gut turns out to be wrong. Very wrong. Jon Gray and Luis Castillo wrong. Everybody who drafted these arms was excited to do so, and yet their performance to date probably has you dead last in most pitching categories.

I will confess that I am in the exact situation above. I'm in three fantasy leagues this year, and have two shares of Gray and three of Castillo. Is it worth holding onto them despite their struggles (and minor league demotion in Gray's case), or are the underlying skills as bad as their surface stats? Let's find out!

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Jon Gray (SP, COL) - 55% Owned

Gray's peripherals have looked great in his 92 IP this year: 28.9% K% and 2.78 xFIP. Unfortunately, he has a 5.77 ERA and his next start will be for Triple-A Albuquerque. What went wrong?

The first thing you look at is a pitcher's stuff, and Gray's remains excellent. His fastball has lost a tick (95.1mph vs. 96 last year), but its SwStr% (7.4%) is higher than its career mark (6.1%). He's throwing it for a strike more often than not (52.9% Zone%), and while its spin rate is on the low side (2,040 RPM) it always has been (2,064 RPM last year). Batters are slashing .355/.425/.590 against the pitch this season, but its career mark is .332/.405/.516. In short, his heater is performing within expected parameters.

Gray has made a pitch mix change this season, relying on his heater less (57.4% to 51%) in favor of his slider (27.5% to 32.3%). It's a good switch, because the slider is Gray's best offering. It induces whiffs at a high rate (20.3% SwStr%), gets chased outside the zone at a strong 42% clip, and even spends a decent amount of time in the strike zone (47.1% Zone%). Its triple slash line against (.247/.279/.356) is a little worse than usual (.194/.232/.284), but that's just a function of throwing it in the zone more often (41.7% Zone% career). It's hardly getting clobbered.

If anything, his curve has become more deceptive. Its 19.2% SwStr% (13.3% career) and 41.8% chase rate (32.6% career) are both trending in the right direction, with no appreciable change in Zone% (37.9% vs. 39.7% career). He has a show-me change too, but it's not thrown often enough to have any real impact on his season numbers.

Almost nobody questions Gray's stuff, but his detractors are quick to point to the pitcher's nightmare that is Coors Field as a reason to dump him. However, his ERA is actually higher on the road (5.89) than at home (5.64) this season. Gray has also called Coors home for his entire career, yet his ERA has never been this bad. Coors Field limits Gray's upside, but it does not explain his current struggles.

Contact quality could be adversely affected if Gray was tipping his pitches or something, but this doesn't seem to be the case either. According to Baseball Savant, the exit velocities, launch angles, and strikeouts Gray has allowed this year should have produced a batting average of .243. His actual batting average against is .287. If you look at xSLG, it tells the same story (.380 xSLG vs. .455 slugging percentage).

Contact quality is largely outside of a pitcher's control, so these past numbers do not guarantee that he will allow a .243 average moving forward. The Coors factor also dooms Gray to perpetually underperform his expected metrics. However, we can control for that variable by considering his work from previous seasons.

In 2017, Gray allowed a batting average against of .266 and an xBA of .251. His xSLG of .378 was also lower than his .400 slugging percentage against. In 2016, he allowed a .243 average and an xBA of .236. Likewise, his .386 slugging percentage was worse than his xSLG of .377. Finally, his 2015 season had a massive difference between his actual numbers (.319 average, .485 slugging) and his expected ones (.260, .369).

Part of Gray's problem is the defense behind him, as the team has collectively forgotten how to field. 3B Nolan Arenado is generally a superb glove (20 DRS last year), but he's been a slight minus this year (-1). Likewise, shortstop Trevor Story went from 11 DRS last year to zero this year. Second sacker DJ LeMahieu is on a pace to crush last year's DRS total (eight vs. seven already in 2018), but Ian Desmond (-3) is on a pace to be worse than Mark Reynolds was at first base (-4). The team's outfield glovework has also declined, going from a palatable -2 Outs Above Average (14th in MLB) in 2017 to a putrid -11 (28th) in 2018.

Gray's defense has been scratch both last year (-1 DRS) and this (one), so the club's defensive shortcomings aren't his fault. The team's track record is better than their current performance, so owners can hope that they right the ship.

After considering every variable imaginable, it looks like the ball just isn't bouncing his way. There are some whispers of Gray needing the MiLB time to make mechanical adjustments or correct an issue with tipping pitches, but his manager doesn't seem to think so. As quoted in The Denver Post:

"I think a lot of the mechanics have been worked out, so I think he's in a good spot there... I'm not so sure that he's in a good spot as far as his confidence to make pitches."

Gray is striking out the world, so he seems to be "making pitches" just fine. His 63.1% strand rate is low, but should increase since it has a positive correlation with K%. His .386 BABIP is also outrageous, even for Gray (.342 career). If you think he's struggling with a mental issue, why would you subject him to the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League when he could dominate at a lower level? Nothing is wrong with Gray besides the team he pitches for, making him an intriguing buy-low candidate if you need to make things happen in the second half.

Verdict: Champ

 
Luis Castillo (SP, CIN) - 57% Owned

Much like Gray, Castillo has an ugly ERA (5.85) despite a solid xFIP (4.00) in his 87 2/3 IP this season. Unlike Gray, his profile is a little more troubling.

Again, let's begin with his repertoire. Castillo uses a four-pitch mix: fastball, change, sinker, and slider. His fastball was great last year (9.4% SwStr%, 53.8% Zone%, 46% GB%) while averaging 97.5mph. Its average velocity has declined to 95.3mph this season though, hurting its SwStr% (8.1%), Zone% (52.6%), and GB% (29.4%). It was never great by spin rate (2,221 RPM this year, 2,249 RPM last year), so the lost velocity has made a huge difference.

Castillo may have realized this, as he is throwing fewer fastballs (50.4% to 37.8%) in favor of his sinker (11.7% to 22.6%). Unfortunately, his sinker is not good. It induces plenty of grounders (60.2% GB%), but doesn't have a low enough spin rate (2,103 RPM this year, 2,185 RPM in 2017) to ensure weak contact. Therefore, batters have slashed .389/.451/.644 against the sinker this year.

Castillo's best pitch is his change, and it is elite. Its 27.5% SwStr% is even better than the 22.5% rate it managed last season, as is its chase rate (49.8% vs. 45% last year). Heck, even its 37.6% Zone% is a marginal improvement over last year's 36.8% mark. It is unfathomable that Castillo only has a 22.3% K% with this weapon in his arsenal, so more strikeouts are likely going forward.

Castillo's slider is a second wipeout pitch so that the change doesn't get too predictable, but it isn't nearly as effective. Its 14% SwStr% is solid and its 39.6% Zone% is okay, but its 28% chase rate isn't high enough to count on. It was largely the same last year (15.2% SwStr%, 32.6% Zone%, 31.1% chase), so it seems safe to conclude that it is what it is.

Cincinnati is very power-friendly, so it's important for pitchers to keep the ball on the ground there. Castillo's 58.8% GB% had many owners drooling over his potential last draft season, but his MiLB resume never supported a rate that high. The expected regression has produced a 45% GB% this year, allowing his 20.5% HR/FB to do much more damage despite only being marginally higher than last year's 17.2% rate.

This can be seen in his Baseball Savant xStats. Last season, a microscopic 12.2% LD% allowed Castillo to post a .202 batting average against and .196 xBA. His .312 xSLG was also impossibly good. However, nobody sustains a LD% that low. It has regressed to 20.9% this season, causing a spike in Castillo's batting average allowed (.266), xBA (.258), slugging percentage allowed (.477), and xSLG (.483).

Those expected stats also suggest that Castillo has largely deserved his results to date. His K% should increase, and he has last year as a somewhat attainable upside. He's a great addition if you need a miracle, but may not be right for you if you're a contending team trying to maintain your place in the standings. He should be owned in nearly every league, so he gets a Champ tag. That doesn't mean that you need to be the one to own him.

Verdict: Champ

More 2018 Player Outlooks