RADIO
Hello, and welcome to the first in season Champ or Chump of 2016. For anyone that is not aware, this column embraces sabermetrics to predict whether a given player will be good (champ) or bad (chump) the rest of the way. The advanced stats are used only to predict the usual fantasy ones, so I'll never recommend a player because he has a high WAR or something.
Early in the season, the sample sizes are so small that it is difficult to discern noise from signal. Therefore, I'm primarily using 2015 statistics in the first few columns. As the season wears on, I'll increasingly incorporate 2016 data.
If Trevor Story hit four homers over three games in the middle of June, would he be receiving the attention he is right now? Probably not, but somebody has to headline this edition. Without further ado, lets look at two filler guys before we get to the part of the Story everyone cares about.
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Champ or Chump
Kevin Kiermaier (OF, TB)
If you've heard of Kiermaier, you know him as the elite defensive center fielder who dominates the highlight reel of your choice while breaking the defensive metric Defensive Runs Saved. You do not know him for his bat, because it is terrible. Therefore, you may be surprised to learn that he hit .263/.298/.420 with 10 dingers and 18 SBs last season.
While nothing to write home about in shallow mixed leagues, 20 swipes with a little pop and an average that doesn't kill you is valuable in deeper formats. Kiermaier was also efficient on the basepaths last year, compiling just five CS to go with his swipes. His minor league history is mixed in this regard, as he went 17-for-21 in 2012 only to decline to 21-for-33 in 2013. The most recent data is good, so hopefully he has figured something out.
Kiermaier's power is very much a byproduct of his glove needing to play everyday, as neither his 29.3% FB% or his 8.4% HR/FB are particularly exciting. Still, he has managed 10 HRs in each of his two full MLB campaigns, and deserves credit for this fact. After a dismal 16.7% line drive rate in 2014, it was nice to see him post a 22.9% rate last year. He may not project for an elevated rate again, but at least we can expect a league average performance from him.
Kiermaier's BB% was a pathetic 4.5% last season, severely hurting him in formats that count OBP. However, his eye was around average with a 32% O-Swing%, so he could move closer to a league average walk rate in 2016. His 17.8% K% was strong, but not supported by either his 9.6% SwStr% or an 81% Contact%. Overall, he projects for a league average plate discipline profile, better than some give him credit for.
Kiermaier is off to a solid start this year, slashing .333/.467/.333 with a steal. Tampa loves tinkering with its lineup and Kiermaier can run, so he finds himself at the top of the order on occasion (48 of 139 games last year) despite mediocre results. In turn, this gives him more counting stats than you would expect at a glance. He may not be mixed league worthy, but his glove assures him of playing time and he does just enough to produce positive roto value with his bat.
Verdict: Champ (in deeper formats)
Travis d'Arnaud (C, NYM)
d'Arnaud lost a lot of time to injury last year, but he slashed an impressive .268/.340/.485 with 12 HR in his limited time. The underlying metrics supported the strong performance, as he raised his LD% to a MLB average level for the first time and produced a FB% (41.7%) befitting a power hitter. A 8.6% BB%, supported by a 28.1% O-Swing%, completed the profile of a player trending upward.
At age 27, many pundits projected him as a top C option. Heck, I suggested that his poor glove could give him time at other positions in my bold predictions piece, giving him as many PAs as Buster Posey at a fraction of the cost. With a whopping two games in the book, I already think the TDA train has derailed. Why?
Terry Collins. Why is d'Arnaud hitting eighth? Last season he generally hit fifth (13 games), sixth (25) or seventh (18), and I (and I assume most others) slotted him in similarly for this year. Maybe Michael Conforto would benefit from a lineup slot with less pressure. Maybe fewer PAs per game would be better for David Wright's back. d'Arnaud is simply better than Asdrubal Cabrera. Why is he hitting eighth? From the eight spot, d'Arnaud's counting stats will be severely depressed. Not only will it limit his overall PAs even if he plays other positions, he also has to rely on the pitcher's slot to drive him in. Ugh.
Optimists may tell you that both Mets games were under AL rules thus far, with NL regulations somehow proving better for d'Arnaud. I doubt it. The team DHed Conforto in both games, adding Juan Lagares' glove on Opening Day and Alejandro De Aza's (what?) in Game 2. Both were slotted into the nine spot, meaning that Collins can replace them with a pitcher, have Conforto take the field, and run an identical lineup in an NL environment. This is exactly what happened for the team's home opener.
I like d'Arnaud as a hitter. The only negative thing in his profile last year was a league average SwStr% (9.8%) that failed to support his plus 18.3% K%. However, he won't compile the counting stats to accumulate top C value hitting eighth. If an injury or Collins eureka moment changes d'Arnaud's slot in the batting order, he could certainly be a champ. But as it stands...
Verdict: Chump
Trevor Story (SS, COL)
Now, the main event. The talk of the baseball world whose power production (six dingers in four games) is exceeded only by the bad puns on his name made by fantasy baseball writers. Obviously, Trevor Story is not this good - nobody is. The question is whether he is worth owning all season.
According to his minor league history, the answer is a resounding yes! In 2015, he hit 20 big flies across 575 PAs split between Double-A and Triple-A. He was more of a 15 HR guy at the lower levels, but more recent high minors performance is generally more predictive of MLB production. Even if he regresses, 15 HRs are plenty of pop from a MIFer, especially one with an ADP of 239.6.
Perhaps more exciting is that he figures to add SBs to his season line, something we haven't seen yet thanks to a BABIP near .000. Last year, he stole 22 bags with only three CS. He stole 26 (six CS) in 2014, 23 (one) in 2013 and 15 (three) in 2012. This kind of a success rate will definitely play at the MLB level, potentially making his eventual singles as exciting as his current power streak.
Speaking of singles, he was consistently a high BABIP guy in the minor leagues and has every chance to repeat that in the majors. Not only does he have the speed to beat out a few extra base hits, he also calls Coors Field home, the best BABIP park in all of baseball. DFS players and shallow league owners should remember that growing accustomed to Coors makes road hitting more difficult, so a stark home/road split seems likely for his final season totals.
The only question for Story is the foreboding specter of Jose Reyes, looming in the shadows to rob the promising rookie of his opportunity. That is not going to happen. Even if his wife refuses to cooperate with the authorities in the recent domestic abuse case, Reyes has already lost in the court of public opinion. Playing him now would draw the ire of a variety of activist groups.
Setting aside the legal issues, Reyes was already detested by a lot of Rockies fans for being the face of the return in the unpopular Tulowitzki trade. He compounded this problem by publicly questioning both the team and its home city in a newspaper quote. His physical ability has declined rapidly, regressing to the point that there is no valid baseball argument to play him, especially on a club that should be rebuilding. Story needed to be dreadful for Reyes to reclaim his job, and he has already proven he belongs.
You don't want to trade for Story right now - his current owner would ask for the moon and likely be justified. Instead, wait for him to not hit a homer for a couple of days, and try to time your offer with something out of the Reyes camp about wanting to play. Colorado fans would riot before they let that happen, but your trade partner doesn't need to know that.
Verdict: Champ
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