RADIO
By now, most 2015 fantasy leagues have already been decided. In an all season roto league, someone probably has a big enough lead in enough categories that the last week doesn't matter. H2H formats are winding down their playoffs, if they haven't already finished. You've set your last lineup in any weekly format, and any remaining daily leagues require constant scrutiny as real teams that pay people to play baseball for them look for reasons to prevent them from playing baseball.
Maybe this wasn't your year. It can't be everyone's as most leagues have a minimum of 10 entrants while paying only the top two or three. Whether you're gearing up for the next round in your keeper league or looking for an edge in 2016 drafts, we have three more names that figure to matter next year. Francisco Lindor is garnering considerable support for Rookie of the Year despite a late callup, David Wright is heading to the postseason for the first time since 2006, and Max Scherzer refuses to keep the ball in the ballpark. Will these trends continue?
Francisco Lindor (SS, CLE)
Fantasy owners get excited when a shortstop does anything at the plate as the position is kind of a black hole for fantasy production. Lindor's triple slash line of .320/.358/.485 with 10 HR and nine swipes in 404 MLB PAs is more than enough to deserve attention at the position. Minor league history suggests that the steals are real -- he averages a little over 20 bags per season with a reasonable success rate. Sadly, it argues against every other aspect of his stat line.
Before reaching the majors this year, Lindor hit .284/.350/.402 with just two bombs in 262 PAs at Triple-A. The same level last season produced .273/.307/.388 and five homers in 180 PAs. He spent the rest of last year putting up a .278/.352/.389 line with six dingers in 387 PAs at Double-A. Nowhere was he a .300 hitter. Nowhere did he show power. These things just materialized against the best pitchers the world has to offer.
A .356 overall BABIP explains a good deal of the batting average production. His 21.1% LD% is essentially league average and does not explain the elevated BABIP. It is explained by a .349 BABIP on groundballs, which has a large influence on Lindor's overall BABIP because 50.8% of his batted balls have been on the ground this year. This is fine for Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon, players with elite wheels that do not need to hit for power to have fantasy value. It is not fine for Lindor, whose 15-20 bags are nice but not reason enough on their own to roster him, even at shortstop. He probably won't fare quite as well on grounders next year, causing his overall BABIP and batting average to plummet. If he hits a comparable number of grounders, there is little room for power growth. Something would need to change significantly for Lindor to be helpful in 2016.
On the bright side, Lindor does seem to know the zone. His 15.1% strikeout rate is several ticks better than league average and is completely supported by a 8.4% SwStr% and a minor league history filled with similar numbers. His 5.9% walk rate is lower than his minor league rate of around 8 or 9%, and may be expected to go up as he adjusts to his new league. His 33.1% chase rate this season is actually quite good for a 21 year old at the MLB level.
Unless you play in some kind of bizarre format that weights Lindor's production because he is young, he is likely not worth paying for next season. His reputation is a glove man that will maybe contribute offensively, and those guys rarely do much with the bat in their first full season. He has been hitting second most of the time, which will boost his counting stats if it continues into next year. In deeper formats where shortstops that play everyday have to be rostered, Lindor could be a decent selection for lineup spot alone. Bear in mind, however, that some managers hesitate to give the 2 hitter the green light to steal in front of the middle of the order, jeopardizing Lindor's floor even as it raises his ceiling.
Verdict: Chump
David Wright (3B, NYM)
Once upon a time Wright was viewed as a first round selection, and he still enjoys the name recognition that came with that status. His current production, .307/.378/.464 with five bombs and a couple of steals, has been held back by the fact that he has only 156 PAs on the season due to injuries. Even before that, however, Wright disappointed last season with a .269/.324/.374 line accompanied by a paltry eight each of home runs and stolen bases. He also randomly fell off of the wagon in 2011, inexplicably slumping to a .254/.345/.427 triple slash line with 14 homers and 13 swipes. Other than these three seasons, Wright has been a model of 20/20 consistency with 30/30 upside throughout his career, but his outlier campaigns have been so bad that their hard to recover from if you invested heavily.
I looked for a reason he was so bad last year and in 2011 but really good otherwise, but I couldn't find one. His batted ball distribution shows a startling lack of flyballs last year but nearly a 40% FB% in 2011, so it does not link the two seasons. The bad years also have decent BABIPs, with a league average .302 in 2011 and an above average .325 last season. His plate discipline has been fairly consistent from year to year even if is no longer as elite as it was in his younger days. Overall, he just seems to stink every so often with no common thread separating the weak campaigns from the strong ones. That is inherently risky in fantasy.
I am not a doctor, but Wright still has a medical issue that figures to impact his career going forward. He has been diagnosed with spinal stenosis, a narrowing of the spinal column with symptoms including numbness, weakness, cramping, and limb pain. There is no cure for the condition, so Wright will need to deal with it until the day he retires. It actually forced former Met Lenny Dykstra to retire early, though modern medicine likely allows Wright to manage it enough that his career can continue. That said, he will need more days off than most infielders, especially day games after night games and the occasional two day break when the schedule allows. That leaves him with a catcher's workload going forward, likely spelling doom for his 20+ SB seasons in the process.
Overall, it is impossible to accurately predict Wright's fantasy value moving forward. He has looked good this season, but the sample is so small and involves a .358 BABIP and 26.1% LD%. While Wright's career average LD% is a high 22.7%, his current number still seems unsustainable. He is extremely likely to require extra rest and a DL stint every season, but should still produce well on a per game basis. His lineup slot figures to be premium for the rest of his career, boosting his counting stats as his time on the field decreases them. Ultimately, I think fantasy owners will take one approach to an extreme -- either they shortchange Wright completely, making him a bargain, or they pretend nothing is wrong at all, making him a bust. In daily leagues that allow you to sit him when he doesn't play, Wright is more valuable, and any roster he's on needs a respectable backup for when he inevitably misses time. The best course of action is to zig when others zag. Accept the discount if it is offered, but don't bet your season on him.
Verdict: Unknown (depends on how others see him)
Max Scherzer (SP, WAS)
In my no-hitter themed article a few weeks ago, I ignored Scherzer because "everyone agrees he's a champ." Since then, he has struggled and people are jumping off of the bandwagon. Now, he is among the featured three. Scherzer has gone 12-12 with a disappointing Washington club despite a 2.98 ERA and almost identical 2.97 FIP. His 10.59 K/9 are utterly dominant, representing an uptick from last season's already excellent 10.29/9. His control has also improved, from 2.57 BB/9 last season to a sparkling 1.32/9 this year. Sure, his .277 BABIP against seems too low while his 79.6% strand rate seems too high, but those strikeouts can at least help with the latter number.
Of course, the only thing anyone wants to talk about is the gopher ball. Perceptions are actually correct -- Scherzer's 19.1% HR/FB in the second half is ridiculously high. However, the people complaining about it fail to mention that he allowed almost no dingers in the first half, posting a HR/FB of just 6.3%. The second half is unfathomably bad while the first half was ridiculously good. They ended up largely evening out for an overall figure of 10.8%, only slightly worse than league average. The sky is not falling, and Scherzer will put up elite production next year.
If it will make you feel better, I can explain that last statement with Pitch f/x data. Historically, Scherzer only has one pitch that generates a lot of grounders -- his changeup. This year, his change usage is down to 13.6% from 20.8% last season. Throwing fewer changes has led to more flyballs (46.3% vs. 41.5% career), in turn leading to more home runs. The change is still effective when used, as evidenced by its 53.3% GB% against its career 53.9% rate. It also keeps the ball in the yard with a tiny 4.5% HR/FB. Scherzer could throw it more and solve the gopheritis tomorrow. Do fantasy owners really want him too, though?
Scherzer's fastball has gained velocity this season, averaging 94 on the gun instead of last year's 92.8. As a result, it is thrown more often -- 59.4% this year against 53.1% last year. It has also been more effective, as its SwStr% has jumped from 9.1% to 12.4%. That is great on its own, but most pitchers build their entire repertoire around their heat. Now that the heat is better, the rest of Scherzer's arsenal also plays up. The slider has a 24.4% SwStr% when it previously averaged 19.4%. The change is up from 14% to 15.3%. The curve's 12.2% is better than its previous 9.1%. Scherzer's uptick in strikeouts are directly attributable to the better heater being thrown more often, and that is not something most owners are in a hurry to give up.
The heater is also a strike an insane 66.2% of the time, explaining the minuscule walk rate. It might actually be a strike too often. The strikes took batters by surprise in the first half, but now that they expect something in the zone they are prepared to crush every mistake. This would explain both the dominant first half and the homer prone second half. If so, the solution is to throw slightly fewer strikes, quite possibly the easiest change to make in all of baseball. Again, Scherzer will be fine.
Should anyone still want Scherzer to sacrifice some Ks for a lower HR/FB, consider that despite its success this year the change still has a career HR/FB of 12.2%. Since the sample size is almost always small for one non-fastball pitch, a stat like HR/FB can vary wildly from year to year with no lasting impact. You could make the argument that Washington is a franchise on a downward trajectory after this terrible season, but that is really the only negative thing you can say about Scherzer. He is a champ through and through.
Verdict: Champ
MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room
[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]
