Last season, most fantasy owners decided to fade Yankees ace Masahiro Tanaka in light of reports that he was attempting to pitch despite needing Tommy John surgery. Those who invested were rewarded with a quality season, as Tanaka went 14-4 with a 3.07 ERA in a full season of pitching (199.2 IP). Last year's discount is gone, if his current 70.7 ADP is any indication.

However, fantasy owners have not learned from the experience. Angels ace Garrett Richards is attempting the same thing Tanaka did last year, but his 224 ADP suggests that he is being faded more than Tanaka ever was. He could break down, sure, but the same thing is true of every pitcher in the game. Let's take a closer look at the fantasy prospects of both of these arms.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Masahiro Tanaka (SP, NYY) ADP: 70.7

I mentioned Tanaka's solid numbers above, but his 3.61 xFIP and 20.5% K% suggest that he may have issues in 2017. His best pitch is a slider with a 16.4% SwStr%, 40.2% chase rate, and 49% Zone%. Tanaka seemed to realize this, increasing its usage from 21.1% in 2015 to 27.5% last year. He also features a serviceable split, with a 14.7% SwStr% and 48.7% O-Swing%. Unfortunately, its low 34% Zone% prevents Tanaka from using it as anything more than a put away pitch when he is ahead in the count.

Tanaka throws a good variety of pitches, but none of the others offer strikeout upside. The rest of his repertoire offers strong Zone% numbers (the sinker's 52.3% rate is the worst of the lot), so at least Tanaka doesn't have issues with walking people. You can bump up his value in leagues that penalize pitcher walks heavily as a result. Two pitches can be enough to post plus strikeout rates in standard formasts, but he currently carries a low end ace's price tag. I need more reliable Ks to label someone a fantasy ace.

His .271 BABIP against would seem to add to an anti-Tanaka argument, but his defensive metrics suggest that he helps himself enough defensively to sustain lower BABIPs. Consider that defensive wizard Andrelton Simmons posted 18 DRS in 1,045 innings while Tanaka generated seven in just 199.2. Per inning, Tanaka was a lot better. The Yankees defense also wasn't quite as bad as I thought it was, with geezers Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner combining for 20 DRS in 2016. Tanaka should be a low BABIP guy again in 2017.

Tanaka projects as a solid SP3 or low end SP2 that carries an ace's price tag, making him an avoid at his current price. Add in the fact that the injury concerns are just as real as they were last year without a discount to compensate, and your top 100 picks are probably better spent elsewhere.

Verdict: Chump

Garrett Richards (SP, LAA) ADP: 224

Richards went 1-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 3.91 xFIP last season, but the small 34.2 IP sample renders it almost meaningless. He showed what he was capable of in 2015 though, when he threw 207.1 IP of 3.65 ERA (3.80 xFIP) baseball. His attempt to rehab instead of undergoing Tommy John may or may not work, but his repertoire strikes me as that of an ace if it all comes together.

Back in 2015, Richards' best pitch was a slider with an 18% SwStr% that was ably complemented by a strong heater (9.1% SwStr%). Last year, the slider remained strong (16.8% SwStr%) while Richards flashed an intriguing changeup (15.4% SwStr%). He also threw his cutter much less often (24.8% in 2015 to 7.7% last year), leading to a massive SwStr% spike (7.1% to 19.2%). His heat did not lose any velocity, so it could return to 2015 levels of dominance. If he gets that back with the strong secondary stuff he seemed to be developing in his brief 2016 campaign, the sky will be the limit on his fantasy value.

I also like the Angels as a supporting cast. Projection systems give the team a real shot at a Wild Card playoff birth, but the narrative of the team as "Trout and Garbage" continues to color the perceptions of most fantasy owners. Simmons and Danny Espinosa's excellent glovework should allow Richards to post a low BABIP, while the team's competent offense could produce more Ws than many owners expect.

Admittedly, there are a lot of ifs in the above argument. If Richards is healthy, and if his heat regains plus SwStr% numbers, and if his secondary stuff was not a small sample mirage, and if the Angels are good, then Richards will be a fantasy ace. For these reasons, Richards is a pure upside play. What else are you looking for from the 224th pick, though? If there is a significant discount on league-winning upside, I say you take it.

Verdict: Champ