RADIO
If you look at any baseball coverage with an analytical bent, you are sure to see the word "regress" or one of its derivatives. Baseball writers frequently cite it when a given player's performance, whether good or bad, seems likely to revert to a previously established level.
The word is widely misinterpreted, however. If Player A has a .446 batting average a month into the season, he will not suddenly have a .150 BABIP to "make up" for his previous good fortune. Likewise, a guy projected for around 20 dingers that hits nine in April will not have a HR/FB of zero in May because he already used up his "allotment" of homers.
Instead, regression means that the player will go back to his expected level of production. Player A won't hit .446 the rest of the way, but his final average will be higher than expected because he hit .446 for a month. Player B won't continue his 54 HR pace, but the hot start will allow him to surpass 20 barring injury. Player A and Player B both exist, and are discussed with an additional Player C below. Are they destined to be fantasy baseball champs or chumps the rest of the way out?
The Fantasy Baseball Jury Is Out
Aledmys Diaz (SS, STL)
Jhonny Peralta's preseason injury opened a door for Jedd Gyorko, who had power upside for a SS. The Cardinals blocked him by acquiring Ruben Tejada's brand of blah, and the team worked enough miracles in the past that some put him on the fantasy radar. Defensive questions and injury have derailed both backup plans, bringing us to Player A, Aledmys Diaz.
Diaz is currently slashing .446/.478/.785 with four big flies. Let those numbers sink in for a moment. It is one of the top offensive lines in baseball, and you never even heard of him before his hot start. You would expect a ridiculous BABIP to contribute to such numbers. You would be right, as Diaz's BABIP stands at .431. It is fueled by both an elevated 22.6% LD% and a .464 mark on ground balls.
Can he sustain that? His minor league history is very limited, including just 179 professional PAs prior to last season. Last year, he managed plus BABIPs in short stints at Rookie ball (.328 in 82 PAs) and Triple-A (.372 in 58 PAs). He spent most of the season at Double-A, where he posted a normal .294 BABIP in 409 PAs and a pedestrian .264/.324/.421 line. I'm inclined to trust the largest available sample, so Diaz's minor league history does not support his current BABIP.
Incoming regression does not make Diaz a bad player, though. His start is so strong that he could hit .250 the rest of the way and still hit .300 for the year. He also has pop for a middle infielder, as he connected for 17 homers in 549 PA across his three minor league levels last year. His four in April are a pace for around 20, a solid contribution from a guy that didn't cost fantasy owners anything. His current 32.3% FB% will need to increase to get there, though.
Finally, he makes the most of whatever BABIP he has by not striking out. His 4.3% K% is nothing short of minuscule, and it is supported by both a history of favorable strikeout rates in the minor leagues (15.2% at Double-A) and a strong 7% SwStr%. A 5.8% BB% is also respectable for a guy that almost never Ks, especially when supported by a 25% O-Swing%.
Diaz swiped eight bags in the minors last year, but six CS suggest that speed is not really his game. He's also been hitting eighth, torpedoing his counting stats with the pitcher behind him. His production certainly justifies a batting order promotion, however. I have no idea what the Cards do when Peralta is ready to return, but Diaz should be an asset until then. Don't expect a .400 average moving forward, but ride the wave if you took a chance on him. There is a solid player hiding beneath the good fortune.
Verdict: Champ
Neil Walker (2B, NYM)
Walker has been worth any number of Jonathan Nieses so far in 2016, as his nine homers are tied for the MLB lead with Trevor Story and Bryce Harper. Player B in the example above, Walker was projected for 20 bombs at best this year and is already half way there. Can he keep it up?
Walker hit 16 home runs last season, a number that is fairly typical of his career production. His career best was 23 in 2013, the only time he eclipsed the 20 mark. This year, his power surge is partly the result of an elevated HR/FB (28.1%, 9.9% last year) that seems incredibly unsustainable. His FB% also skyrocketed from 36.8% last year to an insane 51.6% this year. Power breakouts tend to be rooted in additional fly balls, and Walker's rate could easily lead to a career year even if it regresses a little.
The rest of his game has taken a hit as he sells out for power, but the results have been worth it. Walker's strikeout rate has increased (18.2% last year to 21.7% this) thanks to a jump in SwStr% (current 11.5% rate would be a career worst), but neither metric is truly bad. His walk rate has decreased from 7.3% last year to just 3.6% this, but his eye has actually improved to the tune of a 23.1% O-Swing%. His career rate is 31%, and he had a 32.6% mark last year. The increased selectivity likely has something to do with the power uptick. Walker's BABIP has also fallen to .283 from a .307 career figure, but it is probably just the natural result of the increased FB%.
His lineup slot is not perfect, as the 5th and 6th slots provide some RBI opportunities at the expense of runs and PAs. He has three bombs against LHP this year, representing 33% of his career power production against southpaws. That is a lot for a month in a veteran's career.
Walker won't hit the 50+ bombs he is currently on pace for, but a 20 HR pace the rest of the way gives him around 16 more. The resulting total of 25 would be a career best, in a free agent year to boot! He is definitely worth owning in fantasy.
Verdict: Champ
Joey Votto (1B, CIN)
Player C above, he didn't really fit into the regression narrative in the intro. He is also disappointing fantasy owners that invested in him with a .221/.311/.312 triple slash line and only two homers. After going .314/.459/.541 with 29 dingers a year ago, his production to date is troubling. Can he rebound?
Votto's BB% (20.6% to 11.1%) and K% (19.4% to 23.3%) are both trending in the wrong direction relative to last year. His eye is still amazing (19.9% O-Swing%), and his SwStr% remains a strong 8.4% even if last season's 7.7% mark was a little better. The change in his plate discipline numbers seems to be seeing more strikes (49.6% zone% vs. 43% career) and especially first pitch strikes (64.4% vs. 55.5% career). This is the opposite problem from what was expected preseason, as the Reds didn't seem to have anybody else in their offense to make pitchers challenge Votto.
The other part of Votto's problem is his .268 BABIP. The owner of a .356 career mark fueled by a very high 25.3% LD%, I initially thought Votto to be the victim of poor batted ball luck. LD% can be a fickle mistress, but his 25.9% rate is right on his career norm. Instead, his BABIP has been reduced on all batted ball types by the dreaded shift.
Votto's overall Pull% is up to 46.7% from 35% last year, but that stat doesn't really tell you anything. Far more concerning is Votto's increased tendency to pull ground balls. So far, Votto has pulled 71.4% of his grounders against a career average of 55.8%. That is a lot of additional balls for the shift to eat. Meanwhile, his fly balls are hit to the opposite field 52.9% of the time, suggesting a reverse shift might work for outfielders. His pull rate on flies is in the single digits, so there is really no reason not to do so. As a result, a player with a career .313 average against the shift is hitting just .167 against it this year.
Sure it's early, but the increased Pull% on ground balls combined with the inability of others to beat the shift makes me extremely leery of Votto's fortunes moving forward. He is hitting .344 when no shift is on this year, but it figures to become more commonplace as the scouting report gets around. He doesn't even have the power potential most shifted guys do, as pulled flies are the most likely to leave the yard and Votto barely hits any of them. He has alternated between 20 HR power and 10 HR power for a few years now, and it's the weakling's turn.
Votto loses his elite eye if the opposition throws nothing but strikes, and his new batted ball distribution leaves him vulnerable to the shift. His supporting cast still isn't great, and he never profiled as a lock for elite power production. It is time to trade Votto, as his name is the most valuable component of his fantasy profile.
Verdict: Chump
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