RADIO
While everyone follows the pennant races this time of year, many also become fascinated by who will win the end of season awards. Who will be MVP? Is so and so good enough for the Cy?
This year is no exception, with particular attention paid to NL Cy Young and AL MVP. Josh Donaldson made the latter award kind of a cinch, remarkable in that his name isn't Mike Trout. Greinke's season has been ridiculous enough to be considered a shoo-in for the Cy Young award as well, but Jake Arrieta enjoys some support as part of the Comeback Cubbies narrative.
Yet fantasy owners need to know if this level of production is the new normal going forward. After all, none of the above players were projected to be anywhere near this good. Regression to their previous mean could torpedo any 2016 squad that invests heavily for this season's numbers. If that is to happen, Rotoballer readers will want to stay as far away as possible.
Note that all three of these players will be good next year, and a Chump tag in this article is not a warning to never roster the player as much as a reminder to not completely buy in to 2015 totals. Taking these guys in Round 7 is fine, using a first round pick on them is a riskier proposition.
Jake Arrieta (SP, CHC)
If you like Ws, you love Arrieta's 19-6 record. His 1.99 ERA is also a sexy number to look at. Considering Draft Day cost, you are very likely winning your league if you drafted this guy. But you got this guy relatively cheap for a reason. His breakout 2014 involved only 156.2 IP, and prior to that he was nothing more than one of the millions of pitchers with promise that had yet to produce in the Show. Do we trust him?
Maybe. He does strike out over a batter per inning (9.23 K/9), though that is actually a downturn from last year's 9.59/9. His control has improved at the same time, declining from 2.36 BB/9 last year to 2.08 this year. Both changes are likely attributable to a change in pitch selection, as Arrieta's sinker use has risen from 24.8% to 35.5% at the expense of all of his other offerings. His fastball absorbed the brunt of the hit (21.5% last year to 15.8% this), continuing a consistent downward trend dating back to 2011.
Fantasy owners that look at Pitch f/x learn one thing very quickly: Sinkers stink at strikeouts. Despite averaging 94.5 mph on the radar gun, Arrieta's sinker generates whiffs at just a 6.3% clip. League average for all pitches hovers around 9.6%, and Arrieta has three pitches with plus whiff rates: the curve (16.2%), slider (14.2%), and a seldom used change (13.7%). More sinkers mean fewer strikeouts, and while Arrieta's walks might rise as a result (the curve's 33.3% zone% and change's 24.8% figure are particularly low), fantasy owners generally want the punchouts.
Arrieta has set a personal best in GB% (54.3%), buoyed by the sinker's 55.4% groundball rate. When the wind blows at Wrigley Field, grounders are definitely the way to go. However, every single pitch in Arrieta's repertoire sports a GB% of at least 50% while the curveball offers a superior 60.8% mark. In prior seasons, his arsenal did not lean as much on inducing groundballs. This implies that Arrieta has changed not only his pitch selection but his entire pitching approach to focus almost exclusively on worm killers. Since it has led to success this season, human nature mandates that Arrieta will continue to do this next season. The strikeouts may not come back, and it wouldn't be a total shock to see them dip below one per inning.
Pitching philosophy aside, Arrieta has also seen plenty of good fortune this year. 19 Ws are the first example of this, and he figures to win fewer next year just because of modern bullpen usage. While he has established himself as a low BABIP guy (career .275), his current number of .254 still feels fluky. This is especially true when all of the groundballs are considered, as while grounders keep the ball in the yard they produce a much higher BABIP than flies on average. The Cubs have played strong defense as a whole, but Starlin Castro has his share of flubs - it is not an unmitigated good. Arrieta's LD% of 22% (and 22.3% last year) also doesn't support a well below average BABIP. Overall, BABIP correction seems likely heading forward.
Finally, Arrieta's strand rate of 79.4% seems rather high while his 8.4% HR/FB seems rather low. I do not mean to suggest that Arrieta will be a bad pitcher in 2016. His current FIP of 2.51 clearly indicates that he is a good pitcher. However, more seeing eye singles and fewer strikeouts will make for a fantasy package that is likely to be overvalued on Draft Day.
Verdict: Chump
Josh Donaldson (3B, TOR)
At the time of the trade, many people were questioning what Oakland GM Billy Beane was thinking when he traded away his best player. After a .307/.374/.590 triple slash line with 38 HR and six swipes, those people seem to have been right. Previously a 30 HR threat at best, Donaldson seems like a lock for 40 and maybe more, with over 110 runs scored and RBI. He is having the stereotypical MVP year.
A big part of that is a power explosion, with his current .283 ISO higher than his .278 career batting average. While his ISO has been trending upward for three years now, this kind of spike seems a bit much. The newfound power is built largely on a 22.4% HR/FB when 14.6% represents his previous career best. He is hitting slightly fewer balls in the air (41.1% last season to 38.3% this), and the opposite is generally true of power breakouts. Donaldson's BABIP is also up to .322 from a .305 career figure.
Despite the improved results, the underlying metrics do not appear to have changed much. His overall K% is in line with career norms (18.7%), while he is walking slightly less than he used to (from 10.9% of the time to 9.6%). His eye is still quite good (25.2% O-Swing%), and while he is swinging slightly more often overall (43.6% to 46.6%) he is making enough contact on pitches outside of the zone (58.7% to 61.6%) to make it work for him. What has changed?
His ballpark. On the road this season, Donaldson is hitting .275 with 16 HR - nearly a perfect half season of his prior production. At home, Donaldson is hitting .337 with 22 HR, just five less than his career home total in Oakland's Coliseum. His BABIP of .337 at home is higher than his .303 career home BABIP, but trading in Oakland's vast expanses of foul territory for Toronto's artificial surface justifies such a stark split. Likewise, Donaldson gave up a pitcher's park for one of the most big fly friendly stadiums in all of baseball, so a spike in home HR/FB was also to be expected. Even the reduced walks can be explained away by having teammates casual baseball fans have heard of.
Donaldson has also been aided by regression to the mean. In 2014, Donaldson hit a line drive in just 13.5% of his PAs, a remarkably low number for a good hitter. This year, Donaldson's LD% has spiked to 18.2%. While he is still three percent shy of a league average rate, Donaldson has at least found the acceptable range - his new rate would seem to have much more staying power than the old. By batted ball type, Donaldson's BABIP is really not elevated. His .254 figure on grounders is slightly lower than his .256 career mark. His .159 on flies is only slightly better than his career figure of .146. His .741 BABIP on liners is also only slightly better than his career .716 number. The real change in Donaldson's BABIP is from more line drives, and since the increase brought him closer - not farther - to a normal rate it can be expected to continue going forward.
Finally, while the stolen bases seem random he has a 100% success rate two seasons running. As long as he makes it, there is no compelling reason to stop him. Toronto should offer bountiful R and RBI opportunities for at least one more season in addition to a favorable home park. Donaldson will cost a fortune next year, but he'll be worth the cost.
Verdict: Champ
Zack Greinke (SP, LAD)
If I told you before the season that a Dodger would win the Cy Young award, you would tell me that it was kind of obvious. Of course, everyone thought a lefty would be that guy, not Greinke and his Nintendo 16-3 record and 1.68 ERA. There are a number of red flags moving forward, however. His BABIP against is a minuscule .236, a far cry from his .299 career number. His 86.2% strand rate is ridiculous, especially since he is striking out a batter less per nine (9.21 K/9 last year to 8.13 this). He is walking fewer to offset the loss of punchouts (1.91/9 to 1.49), but only his fastball is a consistent strike (54.7%). Everything else is a strike less than half the time, with the curveball's 47% zone% the next highest figure. That does not seem to be enough to justify the elite walk rate.
It could be argued that Greinke did something with his pitch selection that has led to his success, but this does not seem to be the case. Greinke is using his heater way more often (33.5% last season to 43.3% this) at the expense of the 2-seamer (20.5% to 9.6%). He has also completely cut out a seldom used cutter (2.4% to 0%) and is tossing a few more changeups (15.5% to 18.9%). This is a lot of changes for someone with Greinke's experience and pedigree, and no one will miss the 2-seamer's .263/.330/.425 triple slash line, the worst in Greinke's repertoire.
Yet that triple slash line begins to reveal the truth. For Greinke's career, his 2 seamer allows a .290/.340/.394 triple slash line, meaning it has been much better this year than it had been previously. Greinke is clearly not more confident in the offering, as he has cut its usage in half. Therefore, we can conclude that sheer dumb luck is helping the baseball find Dodger leather.
You want another example? Greinke's heat, the pitch thrown most often both this year and in his career, has a .197 BABIP this year. Over Greinke's entire career, its .297 - 100 points higher! The pitch's zone% (54.7% vs. 54.2%) and SwStr% (7.7% vs. 7%) are largely the same - only BABIP has changed. This same unjustifiable pattern can be seen in all of Greinke's pitches, showing good fortune regardless of what pitch Greinke selects. Unless all of Greinke's pitches have improved in some magical manner that Pitch f/x cannot capture, his magic carpet ride will not continue into next season.
Greinke is still a good pitcher with two solid strikeout offerings in his changeup (18% SwStr%, 43.9% O-Swing%) and slider (20.7%, 45.1%). However, his BABIP should not be as low as it is, his strand rate should not be as high as it is, and his HR/FB stands at a favorable 6.9%. Toss in fewer Ws because that always seems to happen when magic carpet rides end, and you have a guy with a great possibility to be a 2016 Draft Day bust.
Verdict: Chump
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