RADIO
Imagine your favorite position player on your favorite team, real or fantasy. How did he do five games ago? 17? What about 24? You don't remember, do you?
I don't either, yet we as a baseball fandom hold hitting streaks on a pedestal despite needing to ask someone if one is going on. If Jackie Bradley Jr. failed to get a hit in game 25 of his streak, but the media pretended he got one using footage from a different game, I posit that it would take days for anyone to notice the error. Joe DiMaggio had one though, so hitting streaks are cool despite logic.
Like DiMaggio in 1941, someone else has been better than Bradley over his streak. We'll look at both below, plus a struggling arm that really has nothing to do with hitting streaks.
The Fantasy Baseball Jury Is Out
Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF, BOS)
I am done pretending I care about the streak, but Bradley's overall numbers this year are worthy of recognition: .338/.390/.607 with seven dingers and two steals. It is kind of surprising, as Bradley has profiled as an offensively challenged gloveman since before his MLB debut. Should the fantasy community buy into Bradley or expect significant regression?
The pro-Bradley side points out that Bradley raked at Triple-A last season, compiling a .305/.382/.472 triple slash line in 318 PAs. He also set a career best in home runs, posting 19 between the above and his MLB time last year. He posted a double digit BB% in the majors last season, and continues to improve his plate discipline profile by slashing his K% to 20.8% from 27.1% a year ago. Therefore, Bradley can be trusted as a legitimate hitter.
A skeptic would point out that despite Bradley's apparent power breakout, he only has a 29.2% FB% in 2016. The power thus far is the result of a sky high 21.2% HR/FB, suggesting the fluky kind of pop. He is also trapped in the bottom third of the order despite his recent hot stretch, limiting his overall PAs and counting stat opportunities even if he were to keep up his current pace.
His batting average is the result of a .396 BABIP, a number that seems too high for anyone to realistically sustain. Part of the equation is a career best 19.5% LD%, a number still below the league average of 21%. That mark may be sustainable, but Bradley has also enjoyed great fortune on every type of batted ball. His ground balls have a BABIP of .328 against a career .242 mark. His fly balls sport a .269 figure that is much higher than his .194 career number. Finally, his liners have a .727 mark against a career figure of .689.
The most surprising part of this is the fly ball BABIP, which usually declines when HR/FB spikes. The reason for this is simple - if all of a batter's well struck fly balls leave the yard, none are left to be counted in BABIP. Bradley has a career high Hard% at the moment, but not even Giancarlo Stanton's non-homer flies are this productive. Regression seems quite likely.
Bradley's improved plate discipline is also a mirage. Despite the massive decline in K%, Bradley's SwStr% has only improved modestly (11.5% vs. 12.5% last year) and the rest of his advanced plate discipline metrics are largely unchanged. He also currently sports a career worst 30.3% O-Swing%. While this number is not bad per se, it would seem to rule out the return of a double digit walk rate.
Bradley also doesn't steal bases at the rate fantasy players expect him to. While he is a perfect 15 for 15 at the MLB level, his minor league success rate is far worse at 35 for 58. Unlike the rest of his pedestrian profile, this did not improve at Triple-A last year (4 for 8). Even if we acknowledge Bradley as a hitter, fantasy owners almost certainly shouldn't roster him for speed.
At the end of the analysis, a hot 318 minor league PAs are the only thing in Bradley's favor. He is a career .234/.307/.393 hitter with blah numbers throughout most of his upper minors history. His current performance is built on an unsustainable BABIP and HR/FB. His batting order slot is poor, and he does not steal too many bases. Feel free to ride him while he's hot, but his current production should not be expected moving forward.
Verdict: Chump
Daniel Murphy (2B, WAS)
Murphy is the Ted Williams to Bradley's DiMaggio. Sporting a .397/.429/.636 triple slash line with six homers and a swipe, Murphy has been a revelation in a Nats uniform. Like Bradley, his .415 BABIP seems utterly preposterous at first glance. Unlike Bradley, he may be able to sustain the elevated figure.
Murphy has a LD% of 27.9% this year, a very high figure. He has a history as a plus line drive guy, however, with a career 23.3% rate and a personal best of 28.2% in 2014. He had nearly 600 PAs in 2014, so a ton of regression is not a given.
Murphy's ground balls currently sport a BABIP of .528, a number almost certain to decline to a much lower figure. His liners are actually under performing their career average though, .632 against .684. This figures to mitigate the expected BABIP hit somewhat. Murphy also sports a FB% of 45.6%, easily a career best. Should any of his flies become grounders instead, Murphy's BABIP would improve even if the grounders don't find pay dirt 50% of the time. Murphy's overall BABIP probably dips below .400, but .370 or so seems possible.
Whatever his BABIP, Murphy makes the most of it by almost never striking out. His current 10.4% K% is supported by both a tidy 4.9% SwStr% and 95.7% Z-Contact%. Amazingly, last year's 7.1% K% was even better than his current rate. Murphy's not going to walk a ton, but a league average 31.2% O-Swing% doesn't hurt him too much in that regard. If anyone is going to hit .400 again, this is the profile that would do it.
Murphy also has some power, as anyone that saw the playoffs last year is aware. He has six bombs already, a power pace rooted not in a Bradleyesque HR/FB spike but in the 45.6% FB% mentioned above. His HR/FB is up slightly (8.3% last year, 9.7% this) and his IFFB% is down (10.1% last year to 8.1% this) despite the extra flies, so Murphy is lifting the ball with authority. Murphy has also been promoted to the cleanup slot in Washington's order, a cherry assignment for runs and RBI. If teams continue to treat Bryce Harper like Barry Bonds, it may be the best in baseball.
The only bad thing I can say about Murphy is that the SB spike I expected for him has not come to fruition. He is still putting up one of the best campaigns in baseball right now, and any decline in BABIP should be mitigated by the counting stats the cleanup slot offers. I expect him to be the second best second sacker in fantasy, not bad for a guy that didn't cost a premium on draft day.
Verdict: Champ
Zack Greinke (SP, ARI)
No one expected a repeat of last season's 1.66 ERA. Everything broke in Greinke's favor, including a .229 BABIP against (.299 career), 86.5% strand rate (74.7% career), and 7.3% HR/FB (9.2% career). However, his current 5.08 ERA seems to be an over correction. Just as Greinke was never as good as he looked last year, he is not this bad either.
The three metrics listed above have all turned against Greinke. His .345 BABIP against is well above his usual level. His strand rate is down to 67.9%, and his HR/FB is up to 13.7%. The uptick in HR/FB should have been expected considering Greinke's new address, but a decline in overall FB% (32.9% last year to 28.7% this) should control the damage. It actually has on the road, where Greinke is yet to allow a homer and boasts an excellent 2.25 ERA.
The declining strand rate can likewise be explained by a declining K%, as strikeout artists tend to strand more people. Over the past three seasons including the current one, Greinke has seen his strikeouts drop from 25.2% in 2014 to 23.7% last year to 20.9% this year. That sounds bad, but he still records nearly a K per inning - the fact that this is only league average now is an indictment of batters more than a fault of Greinke's. Both Greinke's slider (24.4% SwStr%, 52.5% O-Swing%) and change (17.4%, 54.5%) remain excellent K pitches, so a rebound is possible.
The BABIP is the hardest to explain, but a comparison between last year's 19.1% LD% and this year's 22.5% mark seems a logical start. Greinke's career average is 21.2%, so last year is the outlier. This season's moderate uptick has something to do with the fastball. Batters are teeing off on it to the tune of .377/.402/.662, while its career line is just .254/.312/.409. Its whiff rate has also been nearly cut in half, from 6.9% career to just 3.7% so far this year. It was once effective, but now it's not.
I'm not sure what is going on. The velocity is mostly unchanged, declining less than a full tick relative to last season. Greinke has not changed his pitch selection to make it more predictable. He is not leaving it in the zone too often, as the pitch's zone% is actually down to 52.9% (career 54.2%). The LD% has spiked to 40% (24.4% career), but that does nothing to explain the declining SwStr%. Whatever the problem, Greinke can always fix it by relying on another fastball more, so I'm not too worried about it.
Greinke has an xFIP of 3.35, and I think that is a reasonable expectation for his ERA going forward. I think he gets a few more Ks and a little more luck to be a SP2 in fantasy, so I'm giving him a champ tag. If you were expecting a repeat of last year, you made the error.
Verdict: Champ
