RADIO
Another day, another hitting streak that I don't care about for a Boston player. This time it's Xander Bogaerts, a shortstop that I dismissed in the preseason for lacking obvious fantasy skills. Jose Abreu is another guy I never really cared for, as he never posted a FB% that made me trust his impressive HR totals. I honestly never paid attention to Detroit's Nick Castellanos because I never felt I had to, but his current numbers make him look relevant in all formats.
Sometimes it is beneficial to look again at players you feel you already know. The underlying metrics may have changed, or perhaps you are more familiar with a given stat than the last time you looked at it. Fantasy baseball is a game of luck with a little skill sprinkled in, and you can't afford to miss an opportunity because of preconceived notions.
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The Fantasy Baseball Jury Is Out
Nick Castellanos (3B, DET)
Coming off of a .255/.303/.419 triple slash line and 15 HR last year, Castellanos may have been the least interesting starting 3B to draft this year. His current .321/.350/.558 line with 10 HR is worthy of notice, however. It is only natural to wonder if he can keep it up.
Castellanos has a .389 BABIP this year, a very high figure. Despite not boasting any foot speed, Castellanos figures to maintain a higher than normal figure thanks to a 27% LD% (career 25.7%) and a microscopic 1.6% IFFB%. The third sacker's three MLB seasons are not really adequate to conclude that he can maintain such a high LD%, but a three year worst of 23.3% (MLB average is around 21%) suggests that an elevated LD% should be expected moving forward.
Castellanos hits a bunch of fly balls (44.7% FB% this year), but they do not hurt his BABIP too much thanks to the tiny IFFB%. The problem is that he has always hit a ton of liners, he always avoids useless pop ups, and he still never hit .260 over a full MLB campaign, much less .320. While an elevated BABIP should be expected, his grounders are currently exceeding their career BABIP by 58 points (.275 vs. .217) while his line drives are over performing by 60 (.789 vs. .729). These numbers are probably unsustainable.
Castellanos also makes the least of his plus BABIP by striking out way too often. His 25.6% K% is easily high enough to make hitting .300 a challenge, and a 13.8% SwStr% suggests that no improvement is forthcoming. His improved play is also not the result of improved pitch recognition, as his 35.8% O-Swing% would be a full season career worst. His 4.9% BB% is therefore believable despite his pop.
Castellanos does have some pop, produced mostly by volume of fly balls rather than their quality. His 44.7% FB% is a nice jump from last year's 40.4% rate, setting him up for a few more dingers. His current 30 HR pace is also the result of a HR/FB spike, however, jumping to 15.9% from a career 9.5% rate. With 10 already banked, Castellanos should set a new career best (15) but fall short of being an elite power bat.
Improved play has elevated Castellanos to the fifth spot in the batting order, but Detroit's star power likely prevents him from rising to a truly coveted position. He has some pop, but never cracked as many as 20 bombs in even a minor league season. He could hit for a decent average if he could stop whiffing so often, but there is no evidence that he can. The productivity spike buys him a few more years to figure it out, but owners in shallower leagues can probably do better in the short term.
Verdict: Chump
Xander Bogaerts (SS, BOS)
When one guy has a 20+ game hitting streak, it seems like the media feels compelled to tell us of every active eight-game streak too. We could all save a lot of time if Bogaerts took an o-fer in his next game. Regardless, a .348/.397/.507 line with six homers and seven swipes from a middle infielder is extremely roto-friendly.
The six homers are the result of an 11.8% HR/FB, normally a sustainable rate. However, Bogaerts posted just a 5.3% rate last year, and his career rate is just 7.3%. This suggests regression, but a deeper look reveals that Bogaerts is pulling 29.4% of his fly balls this year, up from a career rate of 22.4%. It still doesn't seem like a lot, but it is hard to pull fly balls. Most batters pull twice as many grounders as flies, so the 29.4% represents real skill growth.
Sadly, Bogaerts still doesn't hit too many flies to any field, sporting a FB% of 27.3%. Sluggers usually look for 40% rates, and 30% is expected from most major leaguers. The newfound tendency to pull balls in the air makes me bump my Bogaerts HR projection to low teens instead of sub-10, but more flies are required for the power breakout people keep expecting.
Bogaerts has a very high BABIP for the second year in a row, sporting a .401 mark. Bogaerts rarely strikes out (16.2% K%), so an elevated BABIP makes him a tremendous batting average asset in fantasy. The question becomes whether he should be expected to sustain it. Unlike Castellanos, Bogaerts sports neither the LD% (20.3%) or the IFFB% (11.8%) to expect a high BABIP. He can run a little, but he is not fast enough to Dee Gordon his way to a .400 BABIP either. His .357 BABIP on ground balls and .267 mark on fly balls despite the HR/FB spike (presumably taking well hit flies out of BABIP) seem particularly luck driven.
The many grounders he hits are the only piece of his batted ball profile suggesting an elevated BABIP, but the fact that he has done it twice in a row is also worth considering. How long before we assume Bogaerts possesses a skill we cannot accurately measure? I am not at that point yet, but it is harder to dismiss than it was a few months ago.
Bogaerts gets plenty of counting stats thanks to hitting third in a potent lineup, but he still doesn't profile as the prototypical guy for that role. His seven steals (and two CS) are solid, and his less than stellar minor league history matters less and less as he steals successfully at the MLB level. He needs more fly balls to join the elite, but gaining them would likely cost the BABIP responsible for most of his current value. A Bogaerts breakout is certainly possible moving forward, but this isn't it. I'm still calling him a chump, but I like him much more than I did earlier this year.
Verdict: Chump?
Jose Abreu (1B, CWS)
Happy stat lines end here, as no one is happy with Abreu's .242/.305/.379 line with six homers. He never had the FB% to believe 40 HR campaigns, but he is not even on pace for 20. Is he done?
Abreu's BABIP stands at .285, a far cry from his .335 career mark. The reason is actually quite simple to identify - a 17.7% LD%. Abreu burst onto the scene with a 23.3% LD% in 2014, which regressed to an essentially league average 20.7% figure last year. This year's is roughly as low as the rookie season's was high, leading me to conclude that a league average figure, on par with last season's, should be the expectation moving forward.
Abreu's HR/FB is harder to explain. After excellent marks of 26.9% and 19.7% in his first two MLB years, it has fallen to a slightly below average 10.5% this season. This is surprising not only because of his pedigree, but also his home park. The Cell is usually great for power hitters.
The best explanation I have is the opposite of Bogaerts's power spike. Abreu is pulling only 15.8% of his flies this year against a career rate of 20.4%. A career high in FB% (still only 34.8%) is simply not enough when such a small percentage are hit with any realistic chance of going for a big fly. This rate will need to go back to Abreu's career rate, at least, before the power returns in a big way.
Abreu's plate discipline statistics are largely unchanged from his established career norms: 6.5% BB% (career 6.9%) and 21.6% K% (21.1% career). His Swing% is completely unchanged (49.5%), while his 12.3% SwStr% and 75.1% Contact% suggest a few more Ks may be in Abreu's future.
Jose Abreu is a prime example of what happens when a power hitter relies too heavily on HR/FB to sustain his HR numbers. The stat can randomly fluctuate, but Abreu's refusal to pull fly balls suggests a skill problem. His batting average should rebound when his LD% bounces back, but Abreu needs to have power to be a plus fantasy asset. I can't guarantee it's coming back anytime soon.
Verdict: Chump
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