RADIO
Nothing can tank a fantasy season quite like an early round champ performing like a chump. I was personally burned by Jon Lester's horrific 2012 season, and have not been able to trust him since.
James Shields in 2015 reminds me a lot of 2012, and I'm sure Ian Desmond would as well if I drafted any shares of him. Yet Lester has been good since 2012, and Shields has a career best strikeout rate despite his gopheritis.
Should you shun these guys as the pariahs that cost you fantasy glory, or embrace their rebound potential in your next quest for fantasy gold?
Ian Desmond (SS, WAS)
Lets start with the one I have the least long term investment in. Desmond has become the poster boy for the Nats failing to meet expectations, with his .225/.275/.385 triple slash line (with 15 HR and 10 SB) disappointing every owner that selected him expecting a career year in the final year of his contract. That scenario can go both ways, as the pressure can make someone fold up his tent just as easily as it propels him to new heights. Just being in a career year is a bad reason to draft anyone.
As for his future, it is likely too late for Desmond to get his season numbers in order, meaning that his payday may not be as big as initially anticipated. Still, it may not be entirely his fault. His .320 career BABIP dwarfs his current .287 mark, so bad luck may be playing a role. The reduced BABIP is partially responsible for the decline in his SB numbers, as his success rate (10 for 13) is on a par with his career norms despite the down year. His walk rate is also down from 7.1% in 2014 to 5.8% this season, but his career rate is 5.9%. Last season, not this, was the aberration. Reaching base less often means less SB opportunities, but the speed is still there and could easily show up again in the future.
His power production is also comparable to his career norms and still qualifies as borderline elite from a shortstop. He is hitting fewer balls in the air (32.1% last season to 30.7% this), but has made up for it thus far by posting a higher HR/FB (16.5% against career average of 13.2%). Since he was never a huge flyball guy and it is not a huge drop, Desmond's 20 HR power should be seen as safe to expect going forward as well.
He strikes out way too often at 28.4% of the time, but this number is not effectively different from last year's 28.2% mark. Furthermore, he has significantly cut down on his whiff rate this season, posting a SwStr% of 12.7% against last year's 13.8% figure. While an average rate of around 9.6% would be much better, Desmond seems to be making more contact despite less than stellar results. This actually suggests that his propensity for striking out is trending in the right direction.
Finally, Desmond has looked like the elite option he was drafted to be in August, posting a triple slash line of .296/.356/.556 for the month. His K rate is down to 22%, his walk rate up to 8.5%, and his BABIP essentially career normal at .324. His lack of RBI to date stems in part from the struggles of the Nationals as a whole, but his .178 average with runners in scoring position is not helping. Still, that stat has no predictive value for future performance. Owned in just 78% of FleaFlicker leagues, far too many owners have cut bait at the worst possible time. Their mistake could be your advantage.
Verdict: Champ
James Shields (SP, SD)
Full disclosure - I thought Shields was the steal of the offseason. Sure his 2014 postseason wasn't great, but he really helped the Royals get that opportunity to begin with. Max Scherzer ended up with more money than God, and I don't trust Lester at all. Shields' contract is the most affordable of the three, and all three seemed like roughly equivalent arms.
Oops. Shields's 8-5 record is adequate, but I expected much more than a 3.89 ERA. Even his 3.42 xFIP would barely be acceptable. Despite these pedestrian totals, his current 9.84 K/9 represent a career best by a substantial margin (previous best: 8.82 K/9 in 2012). Sadly, his 3.18 BB/9 are a career worst, with the next worst all the way back in his rookie 2006 season (2.74 BB/9). With both Ks and walks jumping, it seems logical to assume that Shields has made a big change in his pitch selection.
Such an assumption is right on the money. Shields is prominently featuring a knucklecurve for the first time in his career, up to 19.3% usage from 11.3% last year and 0% prior. This pitch has massive strikeout potential, with a 19.3% whiff rate and 42.9% chase rate. Hello strikeouts! It is also in the zone just 30% of the time. Hello walks. Prior to developing the knucklecurve, Shields' put away pitch was a change that still offers a 42.9% chase rate and 20.2% SwStr%. It is also rarely in the zone. These two offerings, combined with a cutter that manages an above average 11.7 SwStr%, mean that the Ks are for real going forward. The walks are too.
More Ks in exchange for a few more walks is a trade fantasy owners make every time, but the gopheritis should not be part of the future package. Shields's 17.4% HR/FB is ludicrously high, especially in the generally pitching friendly environment of the NL West. All of Shields' pitches have been victimized by the longball, so it is not a pitch selection issue. This sort of bad luck can happen to a pitcher, but Shields is actively compounding the problem by overcompensation.
Shields's repertoire features only one pitch that produces groundballs at an above average rate, a 2-seam fastball (56.5%). Apparently looking to avoid fly balls and the homers they can become, Shields is throwing this pitch more often, from 12% of the time to 14.9%. That may not seem like much, but this pitch is bad. Very bad. Hitters have a .330/.365/.549 triple slash line against the pitch, and whiff at it only 7.6% of the time. Its increased usage is also at the expense of the cutter (25.3% to 19%), which is actually a strong pitch. Avoiding bombs is a good thing, but not if it turns the competition into Ted Williams.
Ultimately, I'm inclined to bet on the strikeouts and expect the HR/FB to return to his 11.6% career average. Shields has been luck neutral besides the homers, as his LOB% is somehow an elevated 78.3% despite the bombs. However, his two K pitches have line drive rates over 30% after being under 20% last year. Despite this, his BABIP is a normal .306 on the season. Both stats fluctuate randomly, so I'll call it even. Shields also has a dramatic platoon split this year, with lefties hitting .282/.362/.539 while their right handed counterparts are held to just .214/.283/.374. Shields does not have that kind of split for his career, so it is likely just noise. I would want to invest, especially at a discount.
Verdict: Champ
Jon Lester (SP, CHC)
Remember when the Royals stole about a million bases against Lester in a one game playoff, and then the rest of the league caught on and embarrassed the pitcher in the beginning of this season? If you are not a Cubs fan or Lester owner, this is likely the opinion you still have of the Cubbie ace. His numbers to date may well surprise you: 8-8 with a 3.21 ERA and 3.02 xFIP. Sure the wins are lame, but most fantasy owners know that wins are a coin flip anyway. His 9.21 K/9 and 2.22 BB/9 are both better than career average, and nothing seems out of place with a .314 BABIP against, 72.9% LOB%, or 9.5% HR/FB.
Lester's flyball rate has plummeted from 37% to 29%, but nothing in his pitch selection substantiates the change. In fact, his pitch selection really hasn't changed at all. He is throwing his change of pace twice as often, but that is still only 4.6% of the time. His fastball is up a whopping 3.6% (now 44.7%), but that could just be situational. His sinker (77% GB rate!) is down a whole 4% (to 11%), but that should make FB% go up, not down, and it is likely too small a change to put much stock in anyway.
Lester could probably get more Ks by throwing more changeups (19.8% SwStr%, 40.5% O-Swing%), but he isn't. He continues to rely on his curve (18.2% SwStr%, 37.9% O-Swing%) as his only put away pitch, capping his strikeouts at merely an above average level. The cutter isn't bad for a pitch that stays in the zone a lot (12.2% whiff, 40.4% chase).
Overall, this is garden variety Jon Lester doing what everyone expected him to do. A fluky 40% line drive rate in April led to a luck driven slow start, and the highlights of his inability to field look worse than they actually are. I was still following April's narrative, so I decided to include him in case anyone else was too. That said, I still won't draft him as I continue to blame my entire 2012 fantasy failures on him for no rational reason.
Verdict: Champ
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