RADIO
The no hitter. Few events in sports can make a stadium root against the home team, but a no-no can. There is a virtual guarantee of a great defensive play to preserve the effort, adding to the excitement of the event. Like a championship, these gems live on well after their season has faded into a distant memory, allowing anonymous names like Bud Smith to stand as equals with immortals such as Nolan Ryan or Sandy Koufax.
So far, the 2015 season has blessed us with five of these gems. One was by Cole Hamels, previously discussed in this column. Another was Max Scherzer, whom everyone agrees is a champ. That leaves three arms who have more in common with Bud Smith than Sandy Koufax: Chris Heston, Mike Fiers, and Hisashi Iwakuma.
The fact that these guys threw no-nos proves that they can be useful when everything goes right, but should not guarantee them spots on fantasy rosters. Even if some leagues have a no hitter bonus, lightning rarely strikes twice. Should they be rostered?
Chris Heston (SP, SF)
As of this writing, Heston is toiling in Triple-A Sacramento despite a solid line of 11-7 with a 3.34 ERA in the Show this season. This is simply roster management - he'll be back up when the roster expands on September 1. Once he is back, the only thing standing between him and a regular spot in San Francisco's rotation is Ryan Vogelsong. I'm pretty sure he starts again this year.
From a fantasy perspective, Heston's 6.8 K/9 leave a lot to be desired. His 2.97 BB/9 are way too many for a pitcher with a below average strikeout rate. His 3.63 FIP suggests an uptick for his current ERA, and his performance in August has not been good (0-2, 4.58 ERA, 6.12 FIP). Heston's stuff lacks K upside, as he throws a sinker that rarely generates whiffs or called strikes (90.1% contact rate) 59.3% of the time. Heston's secondary offerings, a curve (17.1% SwStr%) and change (15%), are all right, but the sinker is so hittable that they rarely have an opportunity to put a hitter away. This condemns Heston to be a pitch to contact type.
Heston was not always that guy. At Triple-A in 2013, Heston managed a decent 8.03 K/9. Repeating the level last season, it nosedived to 6.50/9, roughly where it stands in the majors today. His ERA in 2013 was an unpalatable 5.80, while 2014 saw a drastic improvement to 3.38. His walks dropped at the same time, from 3.81/9 to 2.65/9. It seems likely that this episode convinced the young hurler that chasing Ks would never work for him, while pitching to contact could (and did) get him to MLB. His FIP improved only from 4.98 to 4.50 between the seasons, but most athletes do not dig that deeply. It is highly unlikely Heston turns into a real K threat.
Heston's .286 BABIP is essentially normal on a team with a strong defense, and his 53.9% GB rate and 8.8% HR/FB (in a favorable park) suggest that he will not fall victim to the longball. Despite recent struggles, the Giants remain a contending club so Heston figures to have a few more Ws before season's end. If you need an arm that hopefully won't kill your ERA while earning Ws, Heston could be your guy. Otherwise, he does not offer enough in standard leagues to be of fantasy interest.
Verdict: Chump
Mike Fiers (SP, HOU)
Don't let Fiers's 6-9 record fool you - his is a solid arm with a 3.63 ERA and 3.72 FIP. Most of the losses came on a dreadful Milwaukee outfit, so he should have much more win potential going forward. Fiers was touted as a possible sleeper heading into this season with 9.54 K/9 in 71.2 IP last season, and the Ks are largely still present at 9.13/9. Starters that K a batter per inning are valuable, though sadly his walk rate has ballooned from 2.13/9 to 3.25/9.
Fiers's Pitch f/x data shows that he is throwing fewer fastballs (63.1% to 56.8%) and more changeups (9% to 15.7%) this season, a good change (pardon the pun) for fantasy owners. The change is Fiers's wipe out pitch, offering a 42% chase rate and 15.7% whiff rate. No other pitch in Fiers's repertoire has comparable upside. The fastball does its job in setting up the change, but the other pitches let Fiers down. The curve is only a strike 31.2% of the time, is not chased at an above average clip, and is whiffed at a pedestrian 9.4% clip. The cutter is even worse, finding the zone just 41.1% of the time, generating whiffs at a pathetic 3.4% clip, and getting tattooed for a .370/.390/.500 triple slash line. Generally, every pitch should get a pitcher ahead in the count or put the batter away - neither of these two do so.
The cutter currently sports a LD% of 28.8% while the heater is even worse at 30.3%, so luck may have something to do with these offerings' ineffectiveness. Still, the cutter should probably be scrapped. Fiers has a normal HR/FB (9.9%), BABIP (.300), and LOB% (74.1%), so there is nothing unsustainable about his numbers to date. All of his pitches offer an above average IFFB% as well, which could allow him to consistently beat his FIP going forward (think good Matt Cain). Starters that K a man per inning on contending clubs have to be rostered in fantasy regardless of any underlying warts, so Fiers earns a Champ tag. A decent secondary offering would make him a breakout candidate, and he will have new voices to listen to in Houston to make it happen.
Verdict: Champ
Hisashi Iwakuma (SP, SEA)
Iwakuma has long been a favorite of fantasy owners that wait on starters, as he generally puts up strong numbers in relative obscurity in Seattle. Despite missing much of the season spending time on the disabled list, Iwakuma has a solid 5-2 record for a terrible team. The 3.74 ERA is less impressive, and the 4.17 FIP less impressive still. His 1.47 BB/9 is great for a fantasy roster's WHIP, and his 7.26 K/9 is acceptable if not exciting. Still, both rate stats were stronger last season (1.1/9 and 7.74/9 respectively).
The decreased ratios are almost entirely the product of a change in pitch selection that has seen fastballs (from 27.1% to 15.1%) and splitters (26.8% to 18.8%) go down in favor of sinkers (22.2% to 38.7%) and curveballs (3.8% to 7.6%). This has been a bad change, as Iwakuma's sinker is weak. It gets hit at a .279/.310/.450 clip and posts a lackluster 6.6% SwStr%. The split is not hit hard at all (.191/.243/.324) and posts a 46.9% O-Swing% and 15.9% SwStr%. The sinker does generate grounders 58.2% of the time, but the split is still better at an elite 73.5% figure. Why do you need grounders at Safeco Field anyway? The split is almost never a strike (24.3% zone%), but the rest of Iwakuma's offerings live in the zone so he is not desperate for called strikes. Iwakuma's slider and curveball both post above average whiff rates as well (11.5% and 11.6% respectively), so he could really be a strikeout per inning guy if he stopped throwing the sinker.
Iwakuma probably feels he should do something about his terrible 18.6% HR/FB (career 14.1%), but that is almost certainly just bad luck that will correct on its own with time. His current .242 BABIP against is almost as extreme in the other direction, representing a stark improvement on his .267 career mark. The improved BABIP is rooted in an extremely low 16.5% LD rate, which is likely to come closer to his career 19.1% figure with time. Overall, the increased homers hurt more than fewer singles help, so he'll be a little better with neutral luck.
The only thing holding Iwakuma back from being a fantasy ace is a refusal to throw the terrible sinker, a problem that could correct at any time. His other pitches offer above average whiff rates, he throws in a pitcher's park, and he seems to have a bizarre knack for wins despite his weak team. A ridiculous HR/FB likely dooms him to sub-par season stats this year, but he will be one to target in 2016.
Verdict: Champ
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