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It takes a little while for the advanced stats to have any significance at all, so we're continuing to look at guys with unexpected roles and analysis of 2015 data.
This week, we have a closer that came out of nowhere, a struggling St. Louis slugger, and a perennial All-Star enjoying an early season resurgence. Shall we begin?
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Jeanmar Gomez (RP, PHI)
The first closer in the history of Champ or Chump! Gomez wasn't on anyone's radar as a saves guy. David Hernandez was assumed to be the guy with Dalier Hinojosa the guy to own to bet against him. Andrew Bailey was also signed to further muddy the waters, and the Phillies were projected to be so bad that a lot of fantasy owners decided to ignore the situation completely. Hernandez and Hinojosa both managed to blow saves in the opening week, adding to the chaos.
Enter Jeanmar Gomez. A competent arm with a better than average ERA in each of the last three seasons, Gomez wasn't considered for the role due to his poor 15.7% K% last season. The Phillies were desperate, however, and gave him the ninth against the Mets last Saturday night. He converted it and three more, owning four saves, a 1.80 ERA and a clear title as closer of the moment.
Can he keep the job? He doesn't have the strikeouts or strikeout stuff (career 7.4% SwStr%) most owners look for, but he does have one useful attribute: GB%. Any pitcher looking to succeed in Philadelphia needs to throw ground balls, and Gomez has done so over his career (50%). His career rate is buoyed by an elite 55.4% mark over 80.2 IP for the Pirates in 2013, so he has that in him as a best case scenario.
Gomez primarily features a sinker that he threw 63.5% of the time in 2015. It generated grounders 57.6% of the time. The sinker's usage is again over 60% this year, so it seems that he has embraced a ground ball or bust approach. He also doesn't beat himself with walks. Considering his lack of strikeout stuff and home park, this is probably for the best.
The other point in Gomez's favor is the lack of competition. In addition to blowing his first opportunity, Hernandez has a career 4.17 ERA and has not posted an elite K% since 2014 Tommy John surgery that robbed him of a little velocity. He is also a fly ball pitcher (48.9% career FB%) that has proven particularly susceptible to left handed power bats. That is not a recipe for a closer in a bandbox stadium.
Dalier Hinojosa has thrown all of 28.1 IP over his MLB career. He was the beneficiary of a ton of luck last season, with a .212 BABIP against and 93.8% (!) LOB%. I have no idea what he'll do with neutral luck, but the Phillies may have a financial incentive to ensure it doesn't involve saves. A Cuban defector originally signed to a minor league contract by the Boston Red Sox, Hinojosa is probably eligible for the arbitration system. If so, he'll be able to command much more money from the Phils if he can point to saves in his hearing. Giving him that opportunity doesn't make sense for a rebuilding club.
Andrew Bailey has the talent and experience to seize the ninth inning, but he struggled during Spring Training and has thrown all of one inning at Triple-A as I write this. He is always hurt, so holding Gomez as a handcuff and speculative saves play makes sense even if Bailey does get the job at some point. The rest of the pen is populated by boring league average guys and three lefties, so Gomez has a shot to keep the job.
In the interest of full disclosure, I should point out that I added Gomez to an NL Only roster that includes only Fernando Rodney as a "sure thing closer", so I may be biased in Gomez's favor. Still, Gomez has little competition for the role and might not be exciting enough for a contender to want to add at the deadline. The Phillies will win a few games, and somebody has to save them.
Verdict: Champ
Randal Grichuk (OF, STL)
Grichuk came out of nowhere to post a .276/.329/.548 triple slash line with 17 dingers and four swipes last season. The Cards decided to believe in his performance, deciding not to retain Jason Heyward's services or replace him with an established asset. His start does not inspire confidence that this was the right decision, but it is far too early to draw conclusions based on that.
It is the perfect time for conclusions based on his 2015 numbers, however. Grichuk struck out a completely unpalatable 31.4% of the time last season, and his 15.5% SwStr% doesn't figure to make it any better. He also sported a below average walk rate of 6.3% despite his power thanks to a 35.1% O-Swing%. He hits for enough power that his OBP shouldn't completely crater, but he is hardly an asset in this regard.
His solid batting average despite the Ks was the result of a .365 BABIP, a number made even more unsustainable than it looks by his batted ball profile. While a 41.6% FB% suggests that his power is real, the elevated popup rate that goes with it can be added to his strikeouts in the useless outs column. When 45% of your PAs are over before they begin, it is really hard to post a respectable batting average.
A high LD% guy might be able to keep his batting average out of the doldrums, but Grichuk is not that guy. There was nothing exceptional about his 20.6% LD% last year, nor did he post consistently elevated BABIPs throughout his minor league career. Optimists with some sabermetric knowledge may argue that Grichuk can repeat based on the league's best exit velocity, but I think that is wrong for two reasons. One, currently available StatCast data is missing a lot of batted balls, so we do not have a complete data set for exit velocity. Two, we would still need launch angle data to go with exit velocity, as an 110 mph ground ball right at someone is still an out most of the time.
Grichuk's FB% and minor league history suggest that around 25 HR should be possible with a full season of PAs, but the Cardinals are not giving him that kind of playing time to start the season. Grichuk did not start in three of nine games thus far, losing time to Jeremy Hazelbaker's hot hand and sensational story. Hazelbaker lacks staying power, but it is discouraging that the flavor of the week came at Grichuk's expense. The Cards figure to find other hot hands as the season goes on, and Grichuk will have a disappointing final line if he loses time to all of them.
Finally, caution is advised regarding his four SBs last season. They came with just a 66% success rate, and his success rate in 2014 (8 for 15 across Triple A and MLB) inspires little confidence. Sell Grichuk now if you can, as he may not even be rosterable in July.
Verdict: Chump
Robinson Cano (2B, SEA)
It was the best of Cano, it was the worst of Cano. "It" is of course Cano's 2015 season, which saw him post a dreadful .251/.290/.370 triple slash line in the first half only to rebound tremendously to .331/.387/.540 in the second. Cano attributes the poor start to a stomach parasite that prevented him from eating, sleeping, or working out the way he usually did. He also lost his grandfather to lung cancer in March of 2015, so he may have had emotional baggage to go with his physical issues.
The biggest difference between the two Canos was power, as parasite-ridden, sad Cano hit just six homers while healthier Cano hit 15. Cano already has five dingers this year, so he seems to be on pace to put up good Cano numbers over a full season.
There are a couple of problems with that narrative, though. Cano's stomach issue was not completely resolved until a double hernia surgery in October, meaning that he still had the bug in the second half last year. Why the treatment changed from parasite antibiotics to double hernia surgery, I have no idea. The increased power production also masked a declining FB%, which fell to 24.6% in the second half. A 25.9% HR/FB led to strong power numbers in that time frame, but nothing in Cano's history or environment suggests that it is even remotely sustainable.
He should be better than his 8.1% HR/FB in the first half, so it is still safe to project Cano for power. Just, expect high teens rather than the 30 HR pace suggested by his second half. He is entrenched in the third spot of the batting order, so he should continue to deliver elite counting stats as well. The quality of his supporting cast remains an open question.
Cano's batting average is historically rooted in a high BABIP fueled in turn by an elevated LD%. He has run an above average LD% in each year since 2011, so it appears to be a repeatable skill for him. Last year's .316 BABIP was his lowest in that time frame despite maintaining his LD%, so it may be time to expect a .300 average rather than .330.
I know I said a lot of pessimistic things about Cano, but I still really like him. He is better than every second sacker sans Altuve even if he has begun to lose something to the aging process. This is how he was drafted and how he is generally regarded, so a champ he shall remain.
Verdict: Champ
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