RADIO
My plan was very simple. Last week I profiled three struggling aces, intending to shift over to slumping bats this week. Then Scherzer decided to strikeout 20 Tigers amid concerns that he was off to a slow start, so I felt I should look at him.
Thus, we have two slumping bats and whatever you call a guy with an ERA over four coming off a 20 K performance. Shall we get started?
The Fantasy Baseball Jury Is Out
Adam Jones (OF, BAL)
Jones was once among the safest selections on the draft board, but a few years of decline and his current .236/.294/.355 triple slash line with three dingers have fantasy owners jumping ship in a hurry. I've even heard of him being cut entirely in some leagues. Is that the right call?
I don't think so. While his batting average has declined every year since 2012, the actual numbers are .287, .285, .281, and .269. The first three are essentially identical, and even .269 doesn't hurt your team. His power has trended downward since 2013, but again the actual numbers aren't so bad: 33 HR, 29 HR, and 27 HR. Yes it is trending downward, but 27 bombs are still quite good. Too much is being made of his recent decline.
With that out of the way, how is he doing now? His low .236 batting average is the result of a low .274 BABIP, itself fueled by under performing ground balls and a low LD%. Jones's grounders have a BABIP of .213 this year against a career mark of .267, so positive regression seems to be in order. If you think Jones's power profile suggests that he is losing hits to the shift, you would be mistaken - he's hit .354 against the shift over his career. Eventually, his grounders should find outfield grass again.
With a career LD% of 18.4%, Jones never relied on it to produce a serviceable average. Still, his current 12.8% mark is probably headed north, and it will take his overall BABIP with it. He'll still finish with a rate well below league average, but even 1 or 2% more liners can do miraculous things to BABIP.
His power forecast is a little less sunny. Jones has lost ground in both of the advanced power metrics, FB% (32.6% versus 36.3% last year) and HR/FB (10.7% vs. 16.8% last year). Neither stat has stabilized yet, so optimists could say, "small sample size" and move on. Still, the possibility exists that his power is fading. He continues to enjoy a great park for power hitters and a favorable batting order slot in a strong lineup, so the counting stats should be there even if he is limited to something like 20 homers.
The best indicator for Jones is a massive improvement in O-Swing%, improving to 35% this year after a horrific 46.5% mark last season. Even better, Jones has not lost his aggressiveness in the zone to achieve it. His Z-Swing% has only declined from 80.6% a year ago to 77.4% this year. Jones is reaping the rewards with a 6.7% BB% that would be his best since 2009, though neither SwStr% or K% are showing the improvement. Plate discipline stats start to stabilize sooner than other metrics, so this is very encouraging.
It should be pointed out that his fly balls have a .200 BABIP and a career average of just .132, but fantasy owners won't care if a few more go over the fence. His running days also appear to be behind him. Still, I wouldn't outright cut anyone with Jones's lineup spot, and there are enough positive indicators that he could be a solid buy low. There is some risk that the power never returns, but he could offer league winning upside if it does.
Verdict: Champ
Yasiel Puig (OF, LAD)
Puig started the year hot, but then cooled off in a big way. Overall, his .230/.276/.365 line with three homers and steals leave his owners wanting a lot more, relative to the price they paid. For the life of me, I can't figure out why he commanded such a high price to begin with.
Puig's best season was a .383 BABIP driven .319/.391/.534 in his rookie year of 2013. Some people accept this as Puig's baseline because it happened first, but the smart money suggests that he was fortunate that year. His career LD% is just 16.7%, so he does not build a sustainable BABIP on line drives. He can run but is not a pure burner in the Billy Hamilton or Dee Gordon mold, so he cannot grounder his way to an excellent BABIP either. Last year's league average .297 BABIP (and the .255/.322/.436 line it produced) makes more sense for Puig than the lofty heights of his first two seasons.
This year his BABIP is .280, but it makes sense considering his batted ball profile. Puig's 40.6% FB% would be a career best, but it murders his BABIP with a very high 23.1% IFFB%. Even flies that make it to the outfield are caught much more often than not, so an uptick in FB% (his career rate is just 34.5%) should be expected to decrease his BABIP.
Does the higher FB% open the door to a power breakout? Probably not, as pulled fly balls are the recipe for power and Puig is allergic to them. He is pulling only 23.1% of his flies this year, while 46.2% are hit to the opposite field. Over his career, the split is starker still: 17.2% Pull vs. 45.5% Oppo. Despite an increase in overall Pull% (35.5% last year to 43.8% this), Puig's HR/FB has plummeted to 7.7% from 13.1% a season ago. His airborne contact is simply not that good, and his rookie year's 21.8% HR/FB is increasingly looking like a fluke.
Puig has also seen his plate discipline erode. His 37.9% O-Swing% is a couple ticks higher than last year's 33.7% mark, and it shows in his SwStr% (13.9% last year to 16.7% this) and BB% (8.4% to 4.5%). Even last year he didn't hit for enough power (11 HR) to justify that many whiffs, so he has a long way to go to make this profile palatable.
Unlike Jones, the Dodgers are giving their "star" extra days off to figure it out. This could easily be a prelude to the Dodgers exploring other options, especially when Andre Ethier is available again. When he does play, he has hit seventh the last three days in a row and eighth in one of the two games before that. That means that his counting stats would be bad even if he righted the ship. The Dodgers are a win now team with seemingly limitless resources, and there were already whispers that Puig was a cancer in the clubhouse before his recent struggles.
Never has one guy lived off of a lucky start for so long. People keep expecting the .383 BABIP and 21.8% HR/FB from his rookie year to come back, but there are no signs that they are. Despite a perfect three for three this year, Puig has even struggled on the bases with a 28 for 46 career success rate. He can't be counted on to help in any fantasy category.
Verdict: Chump
Max Scherzer (SP, WAS)
Twenty Ks in a single game is amazing, matched only by Kerry Wood, Randy Johnson, and Roger Clemens (twice) in MLB history. The scarcity of the event proves that it takes more than talent alone. Even top-flight closers who are asked to pitch one inning at a time seldom post anything above 15 K/9.
Scherzer has been mortal this year when not making history, posting a 4-2 record and 4.15 ERA (3.09 xFIP). His 31% K% received a major boost last Wednesday night, but fits in perfectly with his 30.7% K% last season. Scherzer's strikeouts never abandoned him, as he posted a 23.1% K% even in his mediocre April. Most fantasy leagues count strikeouts, and Scherzer provides them in bunches.
PITCHf/x data is not really necessary to prove this point, but his repertoire certainly suggests a lot of Ks. His slider is the biggest weapon, offering a 26% SwStr% and excellent 52.6% chase rate. The pitch is ably supported by a changeup with a 15% SwStr% and a fastball that somehow boasts an 11.7% SwStr% despite a high zone% of 62.1%. Altogether, it adds up to a 14.5% overall SwStr%. Yes, expect the strikeouts to continue to pile up.
Scherzer's bugaboo has been the home run ball, as his 20.4% HR/FB is far higher than last year's 10.5% mark or his career 10.3% mark. It is also too high to pass the sniff test, especially for a guy with such overpowering stuff. Scherzer may remain homer prone, but it won't stay this bad for an entire season. That should bring his ERA closer to his xFIP.
He has also had a problem with left handed hitters this early season, as they have tattooed him for a .323/.414/.615 triple slash line. By contrast, he is dominating righties to the tune of .149/.162/.327. Scherzer's career platoon split isn't anywhere near that big: .252/.322/.418 vs. .210/.262/.354. The biggest difference seems to be a .357 BABIP vs. lefties this year against a .312 career rate. It is probably not a major concern moving forward.
Scherzer's velocity is steady relative to last season, and he has not made any major changes to his pitch selection. He might be making a few too many mistake pitches, but the HRs should decline while the Ks continue to roll in. I have no problem calling him an ace in fantasy.
Verdict: Champ
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