RADIO
Astute readers may have noticed that this column has increasingly made references to 2016 in predicting what the future may hold for featured players. While the statistical trends referred to hold value over time, there is simply not enough season left to assert that they definitely - or even probably - will impact a player this season.
If a player has sustained a fluky BABIP for five months, he may do it for six. He will not do it for 12. That is not to say that the data presented can't have an impact on 2015. Frequently, September foreshadows the breakouts of the next season. Even more frequently, players have a hot month against Triple-A opposition and then end up the next season's biggest bust.
September breakouts justified by underlying data over a larger sample are the true sleepers heading into next year, while guys with fluky season long BABIPs or HR/FBs are the busts. This week, we look at a former stud catcher, a new stud shortstop, and an elite third basemen. Do we want these guys moving forward?
Yadier Molina (C, STL)
It wasn't that long ago that the top fantasy C was disputed - Buster Posey put up the best numbers per game, but Yadi played more games and contributed a number of SBs to make it close. Those days are gone, as Posey plays first to register more PAs while Molina has declined to a .281/.316/.366 triple slash line with just four bombs on the season. Molina has been derided as a bust by many fantasy owners this season, and he is clearly no longer in the conversation with Posey.
Molina's walk rate has declined from 6.3% last season to 5.5% this year, but that is not really a huge drop off and Molina was never rostered for elite walks anyway. More promising is a decreased strikeout percentage from 12.4% to 10.9%, which is nothing short of elite. However, his underlying metrics argue against improved plate discipline as his O-Swing% (34.5% to 37.6%), Swing% (49.9% to 55.3%) and SwStr% (6.8% to 7.8%) are all up compared to last season. Still, a 7.8% SwStr% is really good so it looks like Molina has a few years left of solid batting average production.
Most fantasy owners want to know where the power went, and the answer is a HR/FB of just 3.3%. While never elite, Molina's career mark of 6.8% would represent a better than 100% increase on his performance to date. A .280 hitter with four bombs is second catcher at best, .280 with 10 HR is a value pick for primary C or a strong second option. His flyball rate has actually increased this year (26.6% to 31.2%), generally indicative of a power spike, not drop off. Molina won't ever post an elite HR/FB, but even a career normal rate with the increased flies should net him 10-15 bombs next year. The Cardinals still bat him 5th or 6th and even cleanup recently, so Molina will have middle of the order RBI and R to go with next year's power spike. I think his power production makes at least a partial rebound.
Molina has a bizarre platoon split against LHPs, hitting just .245 against them in 2015. His career average is .278, and as a right handed stick the ability to hit LHPs should be among the last things to go as he ages. He also walks against LHP at a strong rate (10.3%), so I think his platoon struggles are statistical noise rather than the start of a new trend. There is no rational reason that a catcher that runs like a catcher should be stealing even a handful of bases every season, but he is with three (one CS). Since he has always done it, it seems logical to expect it to continue. Molina's current BABIP of .306 seems high for someone with no speed at all, but Molina is a proven batting average contributor that should hit for just enough power to be more than viable at a perennially thin position.
Verdict: Champ
Xander Bogaerts (SS, BOS)
Bogaerts actually has a fairly similar profile to Molina. His batting average of .313 is the best aspect of his .313/.343/.405 triple slash line, he also has four HR, and he contributes a handful of steals (seven against one CS) at a thin position. Unlike Molina, Bogaerts is a hyped prospect in the Boston organization. At the tender age of just 22, the Boston shortstop's campaign seems destined to be labelled "breakout" and cause his Draft Day price to skyrocket.
While a talent like Bogaerts could break out at any time, he hasn't in 2015. The steals are fluky, as 7 matches his professional best across two levels in 2013. He also has a history of less than stellar success rates in the minors, frequently hovering around 50%. If you watch him play, you can see that he can run a little but isn't a burner. He might match this year's total going forward, but there is no room for growth and regression could occur if the CS come back.
While a decline in SBs would be a minor annoyance for most fantasy owners, a batting average dip would be catastrophic. His plate discipline indicates that he walks never (3.9%) but has cut way back on his strikeouts, from 23.2% of the time last season to just 14.9% this. His current mark would be a professional best since 280 rookie league PAs back in 2010 (13.2%). Discounting a small sample of rookie league games, his next best mark came in 256 2013 Triple-A PAs (17.2%). You could argue that he has changed his approach from anything he had done previously in his career, but his SwStr% has only modestly improved from 9.8% to 9.1% compared to last season. League average is around 9.5%, so he has essentially been average two seasons in a row. He is also chasing more offerings outside of the strike zone (30.3% to 36.8%), so he does not seem to be picking pitches any better either. The strikeouts will likely increase to a league average 20% rate to go with his league average peripheral stats, taking a big bite out of his average in the process.
His .363 BABIP also does not seem sustainable, predicated as it is on a .313 BABIP on groundballs. Major league average is .249, and even those with elite wheels have a hard time maintaining .300 for any significant length of time. Bogaerts's rate is even higher, and he is just not fast enough to expect a huge number. Nearly all of his 2015 value is tied to his average, so if it regresses without a power spike, he'll be a sure bust.
Power is just not in the cards. Bogaerts is supposed to hit for power at some point, but his 26.8% flyball rate does not indicate that it is coming anytime soon. Sluggers routinely elevate the baseball 40% of the time, and Bogaerts had a 41.3% mark just a year ago. Now, he isn't even cracking 30%. The few flies he does have are weak, indicated by a paltry 3.7% HR/FB. Molina has a track record of producing better than that, so he could return to his mean. Bogaerts has no established baseline, making it less of a sure thing. His grounders have spiked to 52.7%, but that is only a good thing if he is going to run ludicrous BABIPs. Otherwise, he is rapidly becoming an automatic out.
Between his strong surface numbers, his elite prospect pedigree, and the team he plays for, somebody is going to select Bogaerts in the top 10 rounds in 2016, or spend a valuable keeper slot on him. Don't let it be you. The average is a mirage and he has no other skills that can help a fantasy team in the near term. Dynasty leaguers that can keep him at no cost forever should be encouraged that he has improved his defense enough to stay at SS, but otherwise he has done nothing to excite anyone but master the seeing eye single. Pass.
Verdict: Chump
Nolan Arenado (3B, COL)
It took some baseball fans a while to realize how good Troy Tulowitzki was because he played out West on a team that was never any good. Allow me to introduce Tulo 2, a budding superstar that does not get the national attention he deserves because of the team he plays for. Arenado has an impressive triple slash line of .276/.314/.545 with 30 HR already. That is already a superstar's year, and Arenado has another month to add to it.
The power might be seen to have come from nowhere, as his previous career high in bombs was 26 in the Low Minors and he had just 28 in his first two MLB seasons combined (981 PAs). However, his underlying power stats have consistently been trending upward. His FB% has gone up in each of his three MLB seasons, from 33.7% to 41.8% to 45.2%. This will be his second consecutive year with a 40+% flyball rate, so he elevates the ball like a true slugger. He is also elevating it with more authority, as his HR/FB rates show the same upward trend: 7.1% to 11.4% to 16.4%. The current 16.4% mark is not unsustainable for a player in a hitter's park, and seems about right for a slugger just entering his prime (age 24). He seems to be swinging harder, as evidenced by a slight increase in K% (12.4% to 15.7%) and SwStr% (8.1% to 10.4%). The change seems to be working for him.
Maybe you knew that already. What you probably didn't know is that Arenado is going to get better, as he has actually been unlucky this year. His .272 overall BABIP is on the lowest end of the normal spectrum, but there is nothing normal about his home park. Indeed, trading 81 baseball games for 81 of whatever they play at Coors Field should add around 20 points to any player's BABIP. The only thing that could potentially circumvent this is the shift, but the shift primarily takes away groundball hits and Arenado actually has a slightly elevated .257 BABIP on grounders. Arenado has been weaker on balls in the air, where altitude and the massive dimensions can help the most. His .230 overall BABIP on the road is bound to go up, as he is not merely a Coors Field product. 18 of 30 HR this season have come on the road. Even a modest batting average bump would make Arenado a first round talent available at a discount, and that is what wins fantasy leagues.
Ideally, we would want to see some improvement in his walk rate (5.4% to 5%) as plate discipline will be important as the Rockies try to develop some decent hitters to go with their stud 3B. Still, almost anyone can provide passable offense at Coors, and Arenado is locked into the heart of the order. He also shouldn't run at all (one SB and a 25% success rate), but speed is always available at end game. Third base is not as deep as it used to be, and Arenado won't leave anyone disappointed.
Verdict: Champ
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