RADIO
If a player slumps in June, it is easy to avoid overreacting. His overall numbers still look acceptable, to the point that standard rotisserie league owners may not realize the slump exists until it is over. Slow starts to the season, however, are far more noticeable.
OH MY GOD! DAVID PRICE HAS A 6.14 ERA! THE SHIP IS SINKING, I NEED TO SELL SELL SELL TO RECOUP MY INVESTMENT BEFORE HE LOSES HIS NAME VALUE TOO!
Or something like that. Sometimes players really do lose "it" and a move really is in your best interest, but you really don't want to overreact to the June slump if it comes a couple of months early. I've always been particularly interested in slow starts by pitchers, as they can bury you in two rate categories that strong performances elsewhere have a hard time covering up.
Without further ado, here are three pitchers that celebrated the end of a miserable April (stats current through May 5). Will they be champs or chumps the rest of the way?
The Fantasy Baseball Jury Is Out
Adam Wainwright (SP, STL)
The Redbird ace has a 6.68 ERA so far this season, indicating an extremely slow start despite an acceptable 2-3 record. As with most weak performances in a small sample size, most of the things out of his direct control are not going his way. His BABIP against (.322 vs. .292 career), LOB% (59.9% vs. 75.1% career) and HR/FB (10.3% vs. 7.6% career) are all off his established level. He seems like a reasonable rebound candidate.
The underlying metrics suggest real problems, however. The elevated BABIP can be explained by a 25.9% LD%, which itself seems unsustainable. He hasn't maintained a LD% better than the league average since 2010, however, so assuming significant regression feels wrong. His HR/FB may improve a little, but his FB% is also up (33.6% vs. 30.5% career). This will make him more susceptible to dingers even if the HR/FB improves. The biggest driver of LOB% is K%, and Wainwright's has dried up.
His 12% K% indicates that he would not help fantasy owners even if his ratios improved, as we really like our strikeouts. It seems odd, but he hasn't posted a league average K% since 2013. Most fantasy owners (myself included) still viewed him as an ace after glancing at his 20-9, 2.38 ERA season in 2014, but his xFIP was a full run higher that year. His smoke and mirrors act was bound to be discovered eventually, but an injury masked it last year. It only seems like the wheels fell off the wagon suddenly because the results are only now reflecting the underlying metrics.
Nowhere is that more apparent than his PITCHf/x data. Wainwright's curve has been his signature pitch since keeping Carlos Beltran's bat on his shoulder in the 2006 NLCS, but it is in massive decline. Over the course of Wainwright's career, the curve has a 15.6% SwStr% and 42.1% chase rate. This year, it's down to an 8.8% SwStr% and 36.4% chase rate.
Compounding the problem is that Wainwright never really had a second wipe-out offering. He was able to play up individual pitches in his best years, but only the curve was a consistent weapon. That hasn't happened yet this year, leaving a cutter with a 10.2% SwStr% as the highest in Wainwright's arsenal. That is just not ace caliber.
Wainwright's problems have nothing to do with velocity or pitch selection, as neither has experienced a significant change since 2014. His stuff is simply more hittable without the plus curve, leading to an increase in z-Contact% (95.5% vs. 89.5% career) and decrease in overall SwStr% (7.8% to 6.8%). The luck metrics figure to improve to make his actual results match his 4.70 FIP, but fantasy owners need much more from an ace. He probably can't be traded for value with this start, but his season-long prospects don't look bright either.
Verdict: Chump
David Price (SP, BOS)
The winner of the Bizarre Line Award is David Price, who has somehow managed to compile a 4-0 record and 6.14 ERA in his first month in Beantown. His 2.88 FIP looks a lot better. Once again, the things out of Price's control have gone awry. His current 57.3% LOB% is well below his 74.6% career mark. His .362 BABIP against is well above his career .288 figure. His 13.8% HR/FB is a lot higher than his career 9.1% rate.
This time, however, the underlying metrics suggest the struggles are a fluke. Price's ridiculous BABIP is being caused by a 29.5% LD%, a metric that sometimes spikes and then regresses for no apparent reason. The HR damage should be limited by a decrease in FB% (36.4% last year vs. 30.5% this), an especially encouraging sign for Price's first full season in a hitter's ballpark. As for LOB%, we need to look at K numbers to determine what to expect.
Currently, Price sports a K% of 30.6%. Wow. Last year's 25.3% rate was already excellent, and Price has completely surpassed it. It is not a total surprise, as Price's K% has been trending upward for three years running now. Lest you think it is still an accident, Price's overall SwStr% is up to 15.5% from 11.9% last season.
The big change is exactly that: a changeup. Price has completely mastered the change of pace for a 29.1% SwStr% (18.7% last year) and 46.3% chase rate, making it one of the best K offerings in baseball. He doesn't have a second wipe out pitch, but the change has been so good he hasn't needed one. Unlike Wainwright, Price's other pitches also pull their weight. His 2-seam fastball sports a 10.4% SwStr%, the cutter has an 11.1% rate, and the straight heat has an excellent 14.3% mark. All of these pitches also sport zone% numbers over 50%, meaning that they consistently beat MLB hitters in the strike zone.
PITCHf/x thinks that Price flip-flopped his 4-seam and 2-seam usage patterns, but they also swapped ground ball rates. It is possible that the system is having a hard time distinguishing them from each other. Regardless, Price will throw one of three fastballs that will beat you in the zone, and put you away with a ridiculous change when the opportunity arises. Price's velocity is down from last year, but who cares? I can't imagine a bigger champ going forward. Now is the time to buy low, if possible.
Verdict: Champ
Dallas Keuchel (SP, HOU)
Last year in this space, I called Keuchel a chump, arguing that he could never continue his hot start with so few strikeouts. He proved me wrong by winning the Cy Young award. He proved me right by setting a career high in K% to do it.
This year, his 2-4 record and 5.11 ERA are nowhere near the Cy Young discussion. His 18.6% K% is also nowhere near his 23.7% rate from last year. I think these two things are related. Keuchel is only an elite SP with Ks, and he only had one year of getting them. His career rate is 18.8%, right in line with his current total.
The biggest change in Keuchel's PITCHf/x data is a declining O-Swing%. Last year, his pitches out of the zone were chased at a 33.3% clip, already only slightly better than the 31% MLB average. This year, the number is down to just 26.2%, indicating that the scouting report to lay off of Keuchel's pitches is getting around. Keuchel is compensating for this by throwing more strikes (41.9% zone% vs. 37.6% last year), especially with his 2-seamer.
Keuchel's 2-seamer is frequently called a sinker, and serves as his bread and butter offering regardless of the name. This year, it is a strike 56.8% of the time. That is way too predictable, and it's getting hammered as a result: .442/.490/.581 with a 31.6% LD%. Ouch. The offering's SwStr% has also dropped to 2.8% with a 17.1% O-Swing% after a 6.6% SwStr% and 24.3% O-Swing% last season. It was never great for Ks, but at this point it might need to be scrapped.
Keuchel is throwing it less (35.7% last year, 28.3% this) along with his 4-seamer (21.9% to 11.3%) to make room for more sliders (20.3% to 26.1%) and cutters (8.3% to 23.2%). In theory, this pitch mix change should increase strikeouts, and his overall SwStr% is up slightly (10.3% to 10.4%). However, both of his K offerings, a slider and change, are being chased less often this year compared to last. The slider's 18.5% SwStr% and 37.8% O-Swing% are still good, but last year's 43% chase rate was better. The change gets plenty of whiffs (22.9% SwStr%) but barely gets chased at all (34% vs. 47.6% last year). Keuchel has had a hard time putting batters away.
This is reflected in his LOB%, which has fallen to 65.4% this season. His BABIP against is also up to .348 from his career .298 rate, though last year's .269 was probably always unsustainable. He has actually been lucky with homers this year, posting a 4.3% HR/FB after last year's 12% mark (career 13.5%). Since his GB% is also down (61.7% last year to 55.5% this), homers could make this line worse than it has been so far.
Throwing the change for a strike is a bad idea, as hitters have tattooed it for a .294/.333/.412 triple slash line with a 38.5% LD%. It has to be chased to be good. Meanwhile, the 2-seamer is way too predictable and has lost velocity as well (86.3 mph last year to 85.5). As often as it is in the strike zone, Keuchel is essentially throwing batting practice at that velocity. I am calling him a chump again, so he'll probably win another Cy Young award. You're welcome, Dallas.
Verdict: Chump
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