RADIO
Last week's column was kind of a downer, harping as I did about my least favorite MLB player. This week I figured I should do the opposite and profile three of my favorite players.
I'm a sucker for a good knuckleballer (or even a bad one), so Steven Wright continues the trend of a Red Sox player per week. I was also high on Lackey in the offseason, believing that many projected too much regression for a solid SP on a great team. Finally, who doesn't love Andrew McCutchen? Shall we begin?
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The Fantasy Jury Is Out
Steven Wright (SP, BOS)
I boldly predicted that Wright would take his short term 5th starter slot and make it mean something in fantasy in the offseason this year. I was thinking viable streamer in deeper leagues. I got 8-4 with a 2.22 ERA so far this year. His FIP is significantly higher at 3.37, but knucklers have been the exception to DIPS theory since it was invented. We'll have to dig deeper to determine if he can keep it up.
Wright's .251 BABIP against is on par with his .252 mark from last season. The knuckler suppresses BABIP, so I don't think Wright has benefited from too much fortune on balls in play. He is stranding a slightly elevated 75.5% of baserunners against him, but a couple of percentage points off the MLB average can't be the difference between a swingman and an ace. Strand rate is correlated with strikeouts, and Wright is getting a lot more Ks this year.
Last year's 16.8% strikeout rate was not going to cut it for fantasy purposes, but his current 20.3% rate is much more appealing. The big change has been the knuckler, which has seen its SwStr% rise from 9.2% last year to 12.4% this year. It has been dancing all over the place, which you know if you've seen poor Ryan Hanigan's futile attempts to try to catch it. Wright's BB% is up as well (8.7% to 9.3%), but it's a small price to pay for a respectable strikeout rate.
Unlike many other knuckleball guys, Wright actually has another decent pitch. His curve has a SwStr% of 13.4%, giving him two different offerings that can beat a batter in the zone. Wright lacks the wipeout type offering required for a plus strikeout rate, but two viable weapons in the zone should allow him to be respectable moving forward.
The final "luck" stat for a pitcher is HR/FB, and Wright certainly seems fortunate to have a 4.8% mark. The league average is around 11%, and Fenway Park shouldn't be expected to do him any favors. His FB% is down (43.2% last year to 33.3% this), indicating that HR regression won't hurt as much as it could. However, almost all of the balls leaving the FB bucket are now line drives (13.7% to 21.7%), suggesting that last season's minuscule LD% was the result of misclassified batted balls more than anything else. Airborne baseballs against Wright are largely the same as last year.
Wright does have a crutch to lean on, and it actually brings us back to Hanigan and anyone else that tries to catch him. Using RA9, or runs allowed per nine innings, Wright is allowing 3.02 runs per game. This means that Wright is allowing a disproportionate number of unearned runs that are not included in his earned run average. The "errors" in question are mostly wild pitches and passed balls, events that come with the territory of being a knuckleball guy. He'll probably continue allowing a bunch, helping his fantasy-relevant ERA by allowing runners to score without counting against him.
Wright's breakout year has nothing to do with pitch selection, as it's hard to meaningfully change your pitch selection when one pitch is used 72.9% of the time. His career best 59.1% F-Strike% (First Pitch Strike Percentage) also suggests that he can throw a strike when he absolutely needs to. A few more dingers could lead to a slightly higher ERA, but I think Wright remains viable for the long haul.
Verdict: Champ
John Lackey (SP, CHC)
No one believed in Lackey's 2.77 ERA last year. His 82.6% LOB% and 9.8% HR/FB did not jive with his extensive prior history to that point. Naturally, his LOB% has declined this year (77.7%) but his HR/FB has gone down with it (8.9%). As a result, Lackey is 7-2 with a 2.66 ERA, repeating the unrepeatable. What?
If Lackey was lucky to strand so many runners last year, batted ball luck has prevented them from reaching in the first place this year. His current .255 BABIP against is not only contrary to his career history (.304), but is also not suggested by his increased LD% (20.6% last year to 22.1% this) and decreased IFFB% (11.6% to 7.6%). His FB% is up (33.3% to 37.1%), but that could hurt much more than it helps if his HR/FB reverts to established levels.
Luck is not the only reason for Lackey's success, however. His K% has exploded, rising from a meh 19.5% last year to a scintillating 27.1% this season. Many are calling foul, pointing out that such a rate has never been approached in Lackey's career. Indeed, his 18.9% career K% and career best of 22.3% way back in 2005 do not suggest anything like what he is currently doing. K% is one of the most stable stats though, so just saying "revert to career norms" is not really a valid argument. Variables like pitch selection or a new pitch can create lasting K% changes at any age, so lets see if Lackey could have improved.
Lackey is throwing fewer 2-seam fastballs (32.1% last year to 20.5% this) and mixing in his other pitches about evenly to make up for them. Specifically, his heater (35.4% to 39.4%), curve (9.6% to 13%) and change (2.3% to 5.6%) have been the primary beneficiaries. No one is going to miss the 2-seamer. Its 5% SwStr% and .300/.358/.517 triple slash line against are simply not good. Can the other pitches support the improved strikeout rate?
Lackey's wipeout pitch is a cutter with an excellent 27.3% SwStr% and 52.1% chase rate. It is certainly capable of piling up Ks, but its Zone% of just 29.2% prevents Lackey from throwing it too often. Lackey needs another weapon to turn to when he can't afford to throw a ball. The change is showing flashes of being that weapon with a 15.5% SwStr%, but the sample size is still too small to conclude that hitters won't be able to adjust to it. The curve's 11.6% SwStr% and league average chase rate are likely not good enough, especially considering it was less effective last year (8.8% SwStr%).
Therefore, Lackey's seldom-used change appears to be the key. If it remains viable as Lackey throws it more often, a late career resurgence is possible and perhaps probable. If it is scrapped or loses effectiveness as the league grows accustomed to it, Lackey will revert to his career K% and be little better than league average. Of course, even a league average arm might win 20 for the Cubs juggernaut.
FIP buys into Lackey's breakout with a 2.99 mark, but that is rooted in the high K%. Notably, the only offering in Lackey's repertoire with a noticeable velocity uptick relative to last year is the change (83 to 84.7 mph). Lackey's Ws should make him fantasy useful even without strikeouts, so he gets a champ tag regardless of how the change holds up. An effective change is the difference between fantasy ace and third or fourth SP in mixed leagues, though.
Verdict: Champ
Andrew McCutchen (OF, PIT)
The Pirates are not playing to expectations thus far, and their superstar's .242/.319/.418 triple slash line has a lot to do with why. There are two key components to Cutch's struggles. The first is troubling plate discipline statistics that have both K% and BB% trending in the wrong direction. The second is a .295 BABIP far shy of his .334 career mark. Is there any hope?
McCutchen's 24.6% K% is much, much higher than the 19.4% number he put up last season. The uptick is supported by SwStr%, which has jumped to 12.5% from last year's 10.5%. On the bright side, most of the additional whiffs are outside the hitting zone. His 60.6% O-Contact% last season has fallen all the way to 54.9% so far, while his Z-Contact% is virtually unchanged (82.6% to 81.6%). If you are going to whiff more often, this is how you want to do it. Most balls out of the zone turn into weak outs if you hit them anyway.
McCutchen's declining BB% is likewise overblown. Sure, it has fallen to 9.5% from 14.3% last year, but he is still walking at a reasonable clip. Likewise, his 26.4% O-Swing% is higher than 2015's 23.7% mark, but it is hardly bad. It seems as though elite plate discipline is turning into a mere plus. Kind of sad, but far from the end of the world.
McCutchen's BABIP is a far more concerning issue. He is hitting a lot more fly balls (38.2% FB% last year is up to 46.2% this), and more of them are of the infield fly variety (11.6% IFFB% would be a career worst). Normally, fantasy owners would willingly sacrifice a few points of BABIP for the power offered by a 46.2% FB%, but a declining HR/FB (13.6% last year to 11.6%) has prevented owners from reaping the benefits thus far. His 10 bombs to date aren't bad, but fall well short of elite.
The other BABIP killer in McCutchen's life is the shift, and there doesn't seem to be any easy answers to it. Always prone to pulling grounders (61.2% career), Cutch is pulling 71.4% of his ground balls this season. For comparison, shift-bait personified Mark Teixeira only pulls 68% of his grounders. The trend has led to a batting average of .241 against the shift vs. a .322 mark when it is not in place. McCutchen's flies and liners are performing at roughly career average rates, so the shift is the biggest reason behind the decreased BABIP.
A loss of foot speed may be behind McCutchen's inability to beat out hits. His SB attempts have been trending downward for the past four seasons: 37 in 2013, 21 in 2014, 16 in 2015, and four this season. The fact that he was only one for those four compounds the problem. SBs are not the only measurement of speed, but UBR doesn't support McCutchen's case either.
UBR stands for Ultimate Baserunning Runs Above Average, and the exact calculation requires far more math than most fantasy owners are comfortable with. In a nutshell, the stat captures a player's baserunning value by measuring his performance in things such as tagging up on fly balls, advancing multiple bases on a teammate's hit, and not getting thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double; relative to the league average in similar situations. Boneheaded decisions may negatively impact UBR without reflecting foot speed at all, but it can still be a decent proxy when combined with other evidence.
Back in 2013 UBR loved McCutchen, assigning him 4.5 runs above average. He fell off the wagon thereafter, however, posting a -1.3 in 2014, -1.5 in 2015, and -0.6 so far this season. For the last three seasons, McCutchen has actually been a net minus on the bases. This fact, combined with his increasingly infrequent SB attempts and inability to beat out ground ball base hits, leads me to conclude that Pittsburgh's electrifying centerfielder has lost a step. Defensive metrics suggest that he has become a minus defensively as well, which may or may not be related.
Overall, McCutchen seems to have lost the wheels that made him a household name, leading to a reduced BABIP. He seems to have realized this, changing his approach to sell out for power (more pulled grounders, increased SwStr%). He is also pulling slightly more of his flies (22.5% career to 24.5% this year), which combined with his increased FB% could lead to 35 bomb campaigns in the future. That would allow McCutchen to remain a superstar. However, that is not the profile owners thought they were buying this year, and an unlucky HR/FB has prevented them from taking advantage of it regardless.
Verdict: Chump
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