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Through the first five weeks of the season, the Chargers looked like one of the best teams in the NFL. Not only did they start the year with a 4-1 record, but they also possessed one of the best offenses in the NFL, scoring 35 points per game between Weeks 3-5. They looked unstoppable.
However, things haven't gone as planned since then. Los Angeles is averaging just 19.25 points per game over their past four games. Unsurprisingly, they've lost three of four in that span; suddenly, they've gone from a division favorite to trying to squeak into the postseason.
For fantasy purposes, the decline of the Chargers' offense has not been a welcome sight. What is the root of their problems, and can they fix them? Let's take a closer look.
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Justin Herbert: An Identity Crisis
There's a lot to be excited about with Justin Herbert. The 23-year-old is Pro Football Focus' fourth-highest graded quarterback, and has established himself as one of the premier talents in the NFL.
Still, the past four games have not gone as expected. Herbert is averaging just 6.59 yards/pass attempt, while he's completed under 60% of his passes in three of those games. Since Week 6, he's averaging 18.2 points per game, finishing as a QB1 just one time in that span.
When you think of Herbert, you think of a strong-armed quarterback that is going to take shots down the field. His 7.5-yard average depth of target ranks fifth-worst among 36 quarterbacks. I'm sorry, what? Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi comes from New Orleans, but Herbert is no Drew Brees; he's meant to throw the ball down the field.
In fact, according to Pro Football Focus, here are Herbert's stats when throwing 20+ yards down the field:
- Adjusted Completion Percentage: 55.2% (4th)
- Passing Grade: 94.9 (5th)
- Yards/Pass Attempt: 16.6 (T-6th)
Yet, Herbert is attempting a pass 20+ yards down the field just 8.2% of the time. The only quarterbacks with a lower attempt rate? Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan, and Daniel Jones. For Herbert to reach his peak potential, the Chargers need to allow him to throw the ball down the field. His average depth of target has been under six yards over the past two games, and until that changes, this offense is going to be limited.
A Change In The Wide Receiver Pecking Order
Heading into the season, Keenan Allen was expected to be the Chargers' clear top receiver. Per Fantasy Data, Allen had the ninth-highest ADP among wide receivers, placing him within the third round of 12-team drafts. Mike Williams? 44th.
In other words, it's safe to say few were expecting Williams to come out of the gates performing as one of the top receivers in the NFL, but that's exactly what has happened. Through the first five weeks of the season, his 22.8 points per game ranked 3rd amongst receivers, while his six touchdowns ranked first. Since then, his 5.9 points per game is tied for 84th at the position, and he's yet to find the end zone.
So, what's the cause behind this? Look no further than how Williams has been used. Here is his average depth of target, accompanied by the amount of fantasy points he's scored.
- Week 1: 10 yards (18.2 points, WR14)
- Week 2: 9 yards (18.6 points, WR10)
- Week 3: 9.8 yards (27.7 points, WR1)
- Week 4: 18 yards (1.6 points, WR105)
- Week 5: 15.5 yards (32.5 points, WR2)
- Week 6: 16.2 yards (3.7 points, WR73)
- Week 8: 14 yards (2.9 points, WR79)
- Week 9: 13.4 yards (6.8 points, WR46)
- Week 10: 1.6 yards (5.3 points, WR45)
To start the year, Williams was serving as more of a traditional "X receiver", allowing him to be peppered with more targets. Since then, though, he's gone back to being more of a pure vertical threat, which is the role he served previously, where he had less fantasy viability. As you can see, when Williams isn't getting the ball, it's impossible for him to put up the numbers we'd come to expect from him.
- Week 1: 12 targets (18.2 points, WR14)
- Week 2: 10 targets (18.6 points, WR10)
- Week 3: 9 targets (27.7 points, WR1)
- Week 4: 2 targets (1.6 points, WR105)
- Week 5: 15 targets (32.5 points, WR2)
- Week 6: 5 targets (3.7 points, WR73)
- Week 8: 4 targets (2.9 points, WR79)
- Week 9: 5 targets (6.8 points, WR46)
- Week 10: 5 targets (5.3 points, WR45)
This may seem obvious, but targets are heavily correlated to fantasy production. Since Williams first appeared on the injury report due to a knee injury, his targets have gone down significantly, as has Herbert's aggressiveness.
Instead, it's been Keenan Allen who has been peppered with targets. The veteran receiver has finished as a top-14 receiver in all three games since the bye, receiving double-digit targets in each of them. As things currently stand, he'll continue to produce at an elite level. The question is: will the same opportunity be given to Williams?
Poor Luck Combined With Conservativeness
For this passing game to reach its full potential, the Chargers need to get back to passing the ball at a high level. Between Weeks 1-6, they ranked sixth in early-down pass rate, excluding the fourth quarter (where game script plays a major factor). Since the bye, they rank just 12th, as demonstrated by Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy
Chargers are getting too conservative https://t.co/EyjhZLlpZl pic.twitter.com/92TFjVxMiO
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) November 16, 2021
In Week 9, Herbert finished as the QB2, leading his team to its only victory since Week 5. Is it a coincidence that their neutral-down pass rate was higher than in the other two games since the bye? I don't think so.
Luckily for the Chargers, there is some positive regression coming their way even if they don't become more aggressive. Over the past four games, Herbert has thrown four interceptions, yet he has just three turnover-worthy plays. Turnovers can really throw an offense out of sync, and as Los Angeles benefits from less of them, the offense should naturally be more effective.
One last observation that may be of interest: the Chargers have remained an effective team on first down, but they're getting destroyed on second down, ranking 30th in successful run rate and 28th in successful pass rate during that span. That's less than ideal, to say the least. Believe it or not, this makes me more confident in an offensive improvement.
Right now, Los Angeles is being forced into too many third downs, where performance can be fluky on a week-to-week basis. However, they're already starting off their drives well on first down. Thus, as they improve their sequencing after first down, they should get back to being the offense they're capable of. Unleashing Herbert would surely help.
Fantasy Outlook and Overview
So, what should one take away from this? Can Herbert and the Chargers get back on track? In my opinion, there isn't any reason why they can't.
For that to happen, though, Herbert needs to throw the ball down the field more. With a lot of playmakers and a quarterback thriving when throwing 20+ yards down the field, they're built to be an explosive passing offense, which they haven't been as of late. Furthermore, they need to get back to letting Herbert air it out, as opposed to running the ball more.
Eventually, Los Angeles is going to perform better on second and third down, while their turnover luck should improve. With that in mind, I still see them as a fringe top-10 offense that should be able to make the playoffs, starting with a rebound performance against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. Herbert should be started comfortably as a QB1 for the rest of the season, while Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen are amongst the top players at their respective positions. As for Mike Williams, he may be trending to being more of a boom-or-bust WR2, but he's still going to have spike weeks with a lot of points scored. As such, he might be an ideal trade target to buy low on.
Simply put, there's too much talent on this offense to not believe in them. By the time the Chargers get to play the Giants, Chiefs, and Texans in the fantasy playoffs, the hope is that they'll be back to being the offense they were at the beginning of the year. If so, their players could be league winners. Will that happen? Only time will tell.
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