RADIO
Heading into the NFL preseason free-agent frenzy, the Miami Dolphins had the most salary cap space of any franchise with $63 million. With a new head coach in town and a GM/ownership group that has come under fire recently, we knew they had to make a splash on offense. Rather than landing a big fish like Allen Robinson, Leonard Fournette, or JuJu Smith-Schuster, they opted to make two smaller deals.
On March 14, Miami signed running back Chase Edmonds and wide receiver Cedrick Wilson to fill holes on the roster. Both had been trending upwards despite playing limited roles on their respective teams and each received a substantial pay raise from their rookie deals.
Between the remainder of the free agency period and the NFL Draft, the Fins aren't done adding pieces. But who will they get to complement these new Dolphins and how should early best-ball drafters or dynasty managers view Edmonds and Wilson?
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What Edmonds Brings to Miami
Chase Edmonds wasn't the most high-profile running back on the free-agent market but he could end up being one of the most fantasy-relevant in 2022. The Dolphins are an RB-needy team and the payout he earned makes it look as if he will be starting in the backfield. But if he is so good, why did the Cards let him go?
On the same day he agreed to terms with Miami, the Cardinals re-signed James Conner, Since Edmonds was playing for under one million dollars last year and Conner was one a one-year deal for less than two million, the Cards were not realistically going to pay to keep both.
Conner was clearly the better back in terms of fantasy points, finishing the season as the RB5 in PPR leagues. Most of that was on the strength of 15 rushing touchdowns. Edmonds missed five games due to injury but still wound up as just RB28 on a per-game basis.
By all accounts, Edmonds was the more efficient RB though. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry while Conner was at 3.7 behind the same offensive line. According to NFL NextGen Stats, Edmonds was eighth-highest in Rushing Yards Over Expectation per Attempt at 0.56, ahead of players like Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, and Javonte Williams. Meanwhile, Conner was 10th-lowest in that category at -0.28 RYOE/Att. The difference is speed and that's why Edmonds got the bigger payday.
Chase Edmonds generated +10.2 rushing EPA on his carries last season, the 3rd-most among RB.
Edmonds adds speed to a Dolphins backfield which had the fewest 15+ mph carries (52) in 2021.
» Edmonds (2021): 23.3% of carries reached 15+ mph (1st among RB, min. 100 carries) https://t.co/PMvF944Ha0 pic.twitter.com/KxwHZDaxrU
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) March 14, 2022
Chase Edmonds, RB1?
There have been some rumblings that the Dolphins overpaid in order to get a running back that is essentially the same as what they already had in Myles Gaskin. But are they really the same?
| Totals Table | ||||||||||||
| Player Details | Rush | Rush | Rush | Rush | Rec | Rec | Rec | Rec | ||||
| Rk | Player | From | To | G | Att | Yds | TD | Y/A | Rec | Yds | TD | Y/R |
| 1 | Chase Edmonds | 2018 | 2021 | 57 | 333 | 1551 | 9 | 4.7 | 128 | 921 | 5 | 7.2 |
| 2 | Myles Gaskin | 2019 | 2021 | 34 | 351 | 1329 | 7 | 3.8 | 97 | 673 | 6 | 6.9 |
The career totals are similar indeed but look at the key stat: rushing average. Gaskin averaged fewer than four yards per rush attempt (3.8) while Edmonds was closer to five (4.7 Y/A). Both are effective pass-catchers but Edmonds simply has more burst. Gaskin fell out of favor by season's end, losing his starting job in Week 14 to unsigned free agent Duke Johnson. Those who thought a new coaching staff might give Gaskin a fresh start must acknowledge that he is not part of the team's plans.
The team did bring Salvon Ahmed back on a one-year deal for $895,000 but he will simply serve as depth. Ahmed only carried the ball 54 times last season and averaged a pitiful 2.8 Y/A.
Duke Johnson had a couple of monster games late in the season but is an unrestricted free agent. There is no guarantee he will stay home and if he does, it won't likely be to compete for the starting job.
The Fins could certainly add depth in the NFL Draft but it would appear that they are bent on not spending an early pick on a running back with this signing. They have two fourth-round picks, so it might make sense to take a bigger back to complement Edmonds such as a Brian Robinson Jr. or Hassan Haskins. Neither will necessarily threaten Edmonds' workload a great deal other than around the goal-line, which is the inherit problem.
Edmonds has only taken six rush attempts in the money zone, inside the opponents' 10-yard line. The Cards didn't trust the 5'9", 210 lb back with that duty. The Dolphins are likely to let him get more chances there but since his prowess lies most as a receiver and open-field runner, whoever is the RB2 or possibly 1B will do the occasional vulturing.
At the end of the day, it's hard to predict exactly how many touches Edmonds might see because we're dealing with a new coaching staff and the uncertainty of NFL Draft outcomes. Ideally, Miami spends its draft capital on offensive linemen to bolster a poor-performing unit and passes on a running back altogether. If that is the case, Edmonds can be viewed as a solid RB2 for fantasy heading into 2022 with more value in full PPR than standard leagues.
Where Does Cedrick Wilson Fit In?
The Dolphins' front office is showing a lot of faith in Wilson by handing out a three-year deal worth $22.8 million. Back before the 2019 season, Wilson was waived by the Cowboys and then brought back to the practice squad. He only caught five passes that season before bumping up to 17 receptions in 2020.
Wilson was the number four receiver for Dallas at the start of 2021, but Michael Gallup's ACL injury opened up a window of opportunity. He actually started four games out 16 played and wound up with 45 catches for 602 yards and six touchdowns. He showed solid hands with a 73.8% catch rate and just one drop.
Wilson isn't exactly Deebo Samuel but his strength comes in the form of run-after-catch ability. His 5.6 yards after catch per reception (YAC/R) ranked 15th among all receivers last year, tied with teammate CeeDee Lamb.
New Dolphins WR Cedrick Wilson Jr. gives Tua Tagovailoa a legit WR3 in Miami’s offense.
Wilson was super reliable last season in Dallas. Very versatile as far as where he can line up, and he moves well in space for a 6-foot-2 wideout. #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/HHvfI9Jlah
— Luke Chaney (@luke_chaney4) March 14, 2022
The Slot Dilemma
The size of Wilson's contract in relation to his track record may be fair to question but the more important dilemma is: how does this affect Jaylen Waddle? Ever since coach Mike McDaniel was hired, he has been talking up Waddle and how much he will be used in the offense. The team already has DeVante Parker on board, just used the franchise tag to keep Mike Gesicki, and now signed Wilson to a big deal. Maybe the early Waddle hype was overblown.
? Jaylen Waddle played 374 snaps in the slot (60%) last season
? Mike Gesicki played 370 snaps in the slot (62%) last season
? Cedrick Wilson played 342 snaps in the slot (90%) last season in DAL
I’m not keen on the idea of Waddle seeing less snaps in the slot in 2022 tbh
— Matt FF Dynasty ? (@MattFFDynasty) March 14, 2022
The notion that living in the slot makes a receiver more productive, at least for fantasy purposes, is only partly true. Sure, we just saw Cooper Kupp set NFL records as a slot receiver and often it leads to a high target share. It doesn't necessarily lead to more yardage, though.
Jaylen Waddle 2021 stats
From the slot:
- 73 targets, 55 rec, 454 yards, 3 TD, 75% catch rate, 6.0 air yards per target, 8.3 yards per route, 23% shareOut wide:
- 60 targets, 43 rec, 524 yds, TD, 72% catch rate, 8.3 air yds per target, 12.2 YPRR, 28% target share— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) March 14, 2022
We knew Miami was going to bolster their receiver corps one way or another. The fact they opted for Wilson rather than bringing Amari Cooper back to South Florida or going after another bigger name should actually be a relief for Waddle's dynasty owners. He should still be targeted a ton and has the chance to make more plays down the field. Those 10-catch games might not come as frequently but he should definitely go over 10 yards per reception unlike the 9.8 Y/R mark he posted as a rookie.
Wilson should be the primary slot receiver although both he and Waddle will move around in different formations. The presence of Gesicki also makes it clear that no single player will occupy the middle of the field. Wilson also might fall behind Waddle and Gesicki in terms of target share, not to mention Parker if he isn't dealt this offseason. He will provide a solid target for Tua Tagovailoa and help the offense become more explosive but he can't be viewed as more than a WR4 in fantasy terms. An injury to Waddle would make him a must-add, however, so don't discount his potential upside.
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