Chris Ivory (RB, BUF) - 2018 Fantasy Football Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Target ~165

CURRENT ADP: ~180

ANALYSIS: It’s always tough to deal with legal situations in fantasy football, especially since the NFL has proven to be inconsistent with its punitive measures regarding domestic violence situations in the past. Regardless, the fantasy fallout of a potential LeSean McCoy suspension would shift the entire outlook of the Bills offense and the landscape of the first three rounds. The Bills were a team that relied heavily on the run last season, having the fifth most rush attempts in the league under head coach Sean McDermott. Part of their reliance on the run was certainly because of McCoy’s talent, but new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has also used a rush-heavy approach in his previous stints as an offensive coordinator. He had top talent with Jamal Charles in Kansas City and Reggie Bush in Miami, but also got career seasons out of Peyton Hillis and Jerome Harrison in Cleveland. A starting running back is always valuable in fantasy football, but the Bills look like a team that is going to run a lot regardless of whether they have McCoy or Chris Ivory.

He is starting to rise, and his climb up the draft board reflects his running style; slow, plodding, but on the move. He only went up seven picks from 14.09 to 14.02. Even with the very real prospect of becoming a starting running back nobody wants Ivory. His two years in Jacksonville left a bad taste in fantasy owners’ mouths. When he was crowned starter in Jacksonville they had an atrocious offensive line, and the coaching staff showed a reluctance to give Ivory the volume he needed to succeed. He only topped 15 carries twice with the Jaguars in 2016, his year as a starter. Effectiveness was an issue for him, but it’s hard to put all the blame on Ivory in a situation that was not conducive to his success.

Even if McCoy only winds up with a partial suspension or no suspension there is reason to be bullish on Ivory as a handcuff. Between last draft season and now McCoy crossed two important thresholds. He now has over 2000 career carries and turned 30 last week. He finished with the second most carries in the NFL last season (287) and if the Bills plan on using him as much again this season the risk for injury is only going to increase. Ivory is also 30 but has over 1000 fewer carries in his career. Behind McCoy the Bills’ depth chart at RB is barren, mostly consisting of small, pass-catcher types like Travaris Cadet and Taiwan Jones. Only Ivory has the size and experience to handle a full load. For those that worry about effectiveness, remember that Frank Gore was the number 18 running back in standard scoring last season averaging just 3.68 YPC. Ivory is a potential low-end RB2/RB3 going in the last round of drafts.