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When the unofficial period of NFL free agency began, the Jacksonville Jaguars wasted no time and went on a spending spree that would have made Congress blush. Every time I refreshed my Twitter feed it seemed like the Jags were agreeing to terms with another free agent. It was some positive news for the Jags after their 2021 season was nothing short of a disaster.
The Jaguars ranked dead last in scoring at 14.9 ppg and 27th in yards per game, which is obviously terrible for fantasy purposes. Urban Meyer was fired before the season ended and the Jags bottomed out at 3-14. General Manager Trent Baalke was retained, but he appears to be on thin ice with ownership as help from outside the organization was brought in to assist him.
Sometimes having a General Manager on the hot seat can make things even worse for an organization in the long term, because their sole focus is going to be on the short-term and trying to get as many wins as possible in the upcoming season to stay employed. While no one can fault the Jaguars for wanting to build around Trevor Lawrence, some of these signings will be crushing for their salary cap flexibility going forward, but if Lawrence doesn't pan out I guess it doesn't really matter right?
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Spending Spree in Duval
Once the dust had finally settled on Day One of free agency, these were the newest Jaguars additions:
The biggest winner in all of this was Christian Kirk, who became the third-highest paid receiver in the NFL per Spotrac. While many have been criticizing the Jaguars' recent spending spree, no one can deny that it was good for the development of Trevor Lawrence heading into year two.
There is an old saying that goes: "A rising tide raises all ships" and I still view Trevor Lawrence as a rising tide. While his rookie season was a large disappointment, I am still a big believer in him. With Doug Peterson now in the fold to give Lawrence the coaching he so desperately needs, it's not unrealistic to see Lawrence finishing close to a QB1 for 2022.
In redraft leagues, I am only focused on production for the upcoming season, but in keeper & dynasty leagues, I am always factoring in a wide receiver's, quarterback's, and head coach's stability when it comes to having them on my roster. I am always looking for continuity and Kirk and Lawrence could be a solid combination for years in Pederson's up-tempo offense, especially as a stack in best ball formats.
What Kirk brings to Jacksonville
To provide you with a little background and context on Kirk, he was a 5-star recruit on Rivals back in 2014 where he starred at Saguara High School in Scottsdale, AZ. He then went to Texas A&M where he produced right away as a true freshman and went over 1,000 yards. Kirk finished up his career at A&M where he posted nearly 3,000 career receiving yards and 26 touchdowns. He then went in Round 2 - Pick 47 to the Arizona Cardinals in the 2018 Draft. Still just 25 years old, he is set to begin a new chapter of his career in Jacksonville.
As Kirk is now seemingly the bonafide number one receiver of the Jaguars, it is important to project future offensive performance and how we can rank Kirk on our draft boards accordingly. While Kirk doesn't have the consistent production in the NFL just yet as he played second-fiddle to DeAndre Hopkins the last two seasons and Larry Fitzgerald before that, he wasn't able to see the steady volume in order to produce consistently for fantasy purposes. Kirk excels in the slot and was one of the best slot receivers in 2021. This can add to his volume (which is great for full PPR), but typically when a receiver plays from the slot it can limit his big-play ability, the lone exception to that being mostly Cooper Kupp.
Christian Kirk, WR1?
The biggest challenge for all of us in the fantasy community will be trying to spot who is this year's Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs before him as both players flew under the radar and completely broke out when they got an upgrade at quarterback. Could Kirk be the one to continue that trend in his new home? While Kyler Murray has proven himself to be a solid quarterback, Trevor Lawrence is more of a pure passer and could feed Kirk from the slot on a more consistent basis than Murray could. However, given Kirk's past production and metrics it has hard for me to even put him in the WR2 category right now.
The Jaguars wide receiver room is still largely unsettled with Kirk, Laviska Shenault Jr., Marvin Jones, and Zay Jones now in the fold. Factor in newly-signed tight end, Evan Engram and his ability to line up out wide in the slot, it is somewhat difficult to project snap shares and exactly how to map out volume for the Jaguars offense in 2022 at this point. As you can see from Kirk's stats, he is yet to produce at an elite level, but that doesn't mean I am out on him in fantasy. I love his grit and his toughness on the field.
The good thing with Kirk is that he does come with some upside, but I don't have him anywhere near mapped out as a WR1 just yet. I think he is a borderline WR2/WR3 with upside, somewhere in the 24-30 overall range. That is not to say that Kirk can't perform, but given the other wide receivers who will be selected in this range I am having a tough time drafting him among his peers due to his lack of explosive plays.
As you can see from his combine data and RAS (Relative Athletic Score), Kirk does not possess elite size or speed. He is more of a gritty player with good hands who is versatile when it comes to lining up all over the field.
As the top wide receiver in Jacksonville, he will likely see the opposing team's top cornerback. However, due to the reality that last year was the complete floor for the Jags offense and his versatility to line up everywhere, I think Kirk can see plenty of consistent volume.
One thing that matters greatly to a quarterback is trust. If Kirk can establish the trust and confidence of Trevor Lawrence, there is no doubt that he could see more volume than he has ever seen before in his career. Running back Travis Etienne is expected to make a full recovery from his previous Lisfranc injury, which caused him to miss his entire rookie campaign, which should help the Jaguars offense greatly. The health of their other running back, James Robinson is still up in the air as he tore his Achilles tendon very late in the 2021 season.
The upcoming season for Kirk and the Jaguars is going to be an important one. The disparity here is that I don't quite view him as being on quite the same level that the Jags clearly do when they decided to pay him as such. While I am in no way telling you not to have Kirk on your fantasy rosters, my advice is to do so with the expectation that he still hasn't proven himself in this league yet to be an elite performer. Don't overthink your strategy on draft day by taking him over another wide receiver who has already produced at an elite level for fantasy purposes.
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