RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~190 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~213
Even though getting 10+ points per game from your defense is beneficial, we still don't want to reach and draft a D/ST early in our fantasy drafts. While some defenses like the Ravens, Steelers, and Bears have proven to be season-long holds in years past, you're far more likely to stream defenses each week. With that in mind, I'm going to focus on my D/ST's on teams with strong defensive talent as well as their early-season schedules.
I've created a D/ST Rankings metric that weighs together all of the stats I've come to believe are most important for determining if a defense will be a strong fantasy unit: pressure rate, sacks, quarterback hurries, drives ending in a turnover, drives ending in an offensive score, and yards allowed per play.
ANALYSIS:
The Browns are one of my favorite defenses coming into this season. They finished 16th in my defensive rankings from last year, but a lot of that had to do with injuries making it hard for them to get after the passer. They finished 16th in sacks and 24th in pressure rate, which capped their overall upside. They were a top-10 unit in terms of creating turnovers, which led to some strong weeks, but my optimism comes from the moves they made in the offseason. Since the end of last season, Cleveland has signed Jadeveon Clowney, Malik Jackson, John Johnson, Anthony Walker, Ronnie Harrison Jr., and Troy Hill to add to a defense that already features some elite talent in Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward.
I expect the Browns, who are a well-coached team, to easily push into the top-10 with the new talent in the fold. I also think they'll benefit from their offense hitting its stride towards the end of the season. With the Browns' offense looking more explosive, teams will be forced to pass often to keep up, which will create more opportunities for sacks and turnovers from this defense. They have a tough first game against the Chiefs, but then follow it up with games against Houston, Chicago, and Minnesota, which I'm absolutely here for.
EARLY SCHEDULE: @Chiefs, vs. Texans, vs. Bears, @Vikings
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