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After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
One team that shook up their coaching staff this offseason was the Detroit Lions. The Lions fired head coach Matt Patricia, offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, and defensive coordinator Cory Undlin to bring in Dan Campbell as the new head coach, Anthony Lynn as the new offensive coordinator, and Aaron Glenn as the new defensive coordinator.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Lions players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Lions coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Lions' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
34.87 | 251.78 | 1.56 | 3.56 | 15.04 | 0.16 |
| 2020 League Average | 35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
21.77 | 92.96 | 0.68 | 5.10 | 6.64 | 40 | 0.19 |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
12.05 | 19.59 | 158.39 | 0.95 |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
4.70 | 6.88 | 50.99 | 0.38 |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 22.8 | 235 | 112.9 | 63.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | |
| 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
Previous Coaching Staff
In order to get an understanding of how the Lions fantasy players may be impacted this year, we also need to look at some of the key members of the Detroit Lions previous coaching staff: former head coach Matt Patricia, former offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, and former defensive coordinator Cory Undlin. By doing this, we will have a better understanding of where the new regime is starting from and where the primary changes will occur.
Former Head Coach: Matt Patricia
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2019 Lions | 16 | 26.44 | 284.44 | 115.94 | 68.38 | 5.86 | 1.13 |
| 2020 Lions | 11 | 29.82 | 262.82 | 133.36 | 66.09 | 6.00 | 1 |
| Patricia's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 139 | 21.25 | 249.80 | 110.49 | 64.91 | 5.55 | 1.44 |
Former Offensive Coordinator: Darrell Bevell
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Lions | 16 | 35.69 | 261.69 | 1.75 | 3.13 | 15.5 | 0.06 |
| 2020 Lions | 15 | 36.73 | 283 | 1.8 | 2.07 | 8.53 | 0 |
| Bevell's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 223 | 31.40 | 232.55 | 1.48 | 4.23 | 20.35 | 0.12 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Lions | 16 | 22.06 | 86.56 | 0.38 | 4.75 | 6.31 | 31.31 | 0.13 |
| 2020 Lions | 15 | 20.6 | 83.73 | 1.13 | 5 | 6.53 | 41.6 | 0.2 |
| Bevell's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 223 | 23.83 | 103.50 | 0.76 | 4.25 | 5.69 | 36.14 | 0.14 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Lions | 16 | 12.44 | 20.31 | 185.5 | 1.38 |
| 2020 Lions | 15 | 12.27 | 19.2 | 176.53 | 1.07 |
| Bevell's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 223 | 10.66 | 17.86 | 147.35 | 0.93 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Lions | 16 | 4.13 | 7.31 | 43.44 | 0.19 |
| 2020 Lions | 15 | 5.27 | 8.07 | 58.4 | 0.53 |
| Bevell's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 223 | 4.01 | 6.28 | 45.25 | 0.38 |
Former Defensive Coordinator: Cory Undlin
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 2020 Lions | 15 | 31.47 | 272.07 | 136.47 | 66.53 | 6.14 | 0.80 |
| Undlin's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 15 | 31.47 | 272.07 | 136.47 | 66.53 | 6.14 | 0.80 |
2021 Offense
2021 Head Coach: Dan Campbell
Dan Campbell was a bit of a surprising head coaching hire for the Detroit Lions initially, but he's definitely got potential to be a good NFL head coach based on his resumé. Campbell played tight end for ten years in the NFL, spending time with the New York Giants (1999-2002), Dallas Cowboys (2003-2005), and Detroit Lions (2006-2008). After his playing career, he joined the Miami Dolphins coaching staff initially as an offensive coaching intern (2010) before becoming the team's tight ends coach (2011-2015). During the 2015 NFL season, head coach Joe Philbin was fired after a 1-3 start for the Dolphins and Dan Campbell served as the team's interim head coach for the rest of the season, going 5-7 over their last 12 games. Over the next five seasons, Campbell has served as the New Orleans Saints assistant head coach and tight ends coach (2016-2020) before becoming the Lions head coach. Given Campbell's offensive background, let's take a look at how the 2015 Miami Dolphins offense performed during his time as the head coach.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2015 Dolphins | 12 | 34.75 | 262.58 | 1.42 | 2.25 | 9.33 | 0.08 |
| Campbell's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 12 | 34.75 | 262.58 | 1.42 | 2.25 | 9.33 | 0.08 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yards | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
| 2015 Dolphins | 12 | 19.83 | 86.5 | 0.75 | 5.42 | 6.83 | 49.17 | 0.17 |
| Campbell's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 12 | 19.83 | 86.5 | 0.75 | 5.42 | 6.83 | 49.17 | 0.17 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2015 Dolphins | 12 | 13.42 | 21.83 | 184.08 | 0.92 |
| Campbell's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 12 | 13.42 | 21.83 | 184.08 | 0.92 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2015 Dolphins | 12 | 3.42 | 5.5 | 28.58 | 0.33 |
| Campbell's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 12 | 3.42 | 5.5 | 28.58 | 0.33 |
Dan Campbell Takeaways & Expectations
Over the course of the 12 games where Dan Campbell was the Miami Dolphins interim head coach, his offense averaged 34.75 passing attempts per game. This is a fairly average number of passing attempts but given the small sample size and expectation that Anthony Lynn will be the team's primary play-caller in 2021, there's not a lot we should take away from this.
Besides passing, it is also important to look at the rushing usage of Campbell's quarterbacks during his time as an interim head coach. Over the course of his time as a head coach, Campbell's quarterbacks averaged 2.25 carries per game.
Overall, the Miami Dolphins offense in 2015 under Dan Campbell had a mediocre number of passing opportunities for his team and provided his quarterbacks with a below-average number of carries. While we should put more stock into Anthony Lynn's offensive history since he'll be the primary offensive play-caller, this information is less than inspiring if you plan on rostering Jared Goff in your fantasy league.
Looking at the running back position, Dan Campbell was subpar in utilizing the group during his time in Miami. When Dan Campbell was the interim head coach of the Miami Dolphins, the team's running back room averaged 19.83 carries and 0.75 rushing touchdowns per game.
While it's only 12 games, the 19.83 carries per game are on the lower end of the spectrum for running back carries while the 0.75 rushing touchdowns per game are slightly above average. Hopefully, Anthony Lynn's numbers are better on the ground, otherwise D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams could be in trouble from a fantasy perspective.
But besides the amount of volume (carries) on the ground that Campbell saw from his running backs, we also need to consider how that volume was distributed during this time - was Dan Campbell's team rolling with a bell-cow or a running back by committee approach?
Looking at the data, it's clear that Dan Campbell's team took the bell-cow approach with lead back Lamar Miller taking 157 of the team's 238 tailback carries (65.97%) for 741 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns over the last 12 games of the season. While we should weigh Anthony Lynn's coaching history significantly more since he will be the team's primary play-caller, this is a good sign for D'Andre Swift's potential usage in 2021.
The final aspect we should look at regarding Dan Campbell's running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them as pass-catchers. During his time as the Miami Dolphins interim head coach, Campbell's running back room averaged 6.83 targets per game - which is fairly average.
Overall, the running back usage from Dan Campbell's time as the Miami Dolphins interim head coach is nothing to write home about, and it will be more important to look at how offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn will utilize the group since he will be the primary play-caller.
Looking at the wide receiver position, Campbell's offense provided the Dolphins wide receivers with 21.83 targets per game during the last 12 games of the 2015 NFL season.
This usage is above-average relative to other NFL play-callers. While it's a small sample size and he won't be the primary play-caller, this usage is encouraging to see if you roster one of the Lions wide receivers in your fantasy league.
Lastly, the Dolphins' usage of tight ends during the 2015 NFL season under Dan Campbell was a little subpar. Over the course of his career as a head coach, Campbell's tight end room has averaged 5.5 targets per game.
While this usage is below average, it's important to remember three things before drawing too many conclusions from this time Campbell was the Dolphins' interim head coach.
- T.J. Hockenson is significantly better than any of the Dolphins' tight ends from the 2015 season.
- 12 games is a really small sample size, especially since Dan Campbell was in an interim role.
- Anthony Lynn will be the Lions' primary play-caller in 2021.
2021 Offensive Coordinator: Anthony Lynn
Anthony Lynn will be the Detroit Lions offensive coordinator in 2021 and serve as the team's primary offensive play-caller. He previously spent 14 games as the Buffalo Bills interim offensive coordinator (2016) before spending four seasons as the Los Angeles Chargers head coach (2017-2020). Given Lynn's offensive background, let's take a look at some of Lynn's offenses during his career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Chargers | 16 | 37.31 | 290.5 | 1.5 | 1.38 | 2.25 | 0 |
| 2020 Chargers | 16 | 39.19 | 284.25 | 1.94 | 3.88 | 14.94 | 0.31 |
| Lynn's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 78 | 35.13 | 267.88 | 1.65 | 2.92 | 10.77 | 0.14 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Chargers | 16 | 20.81 | 86.81 | 0.69 | 9.06 | 11.06 | 82.81 | 0.63 |
| 2020 Chargers | 16 | 24.31 | 95 | 0.38 | 7.75 | 9.31 | 54.06 | 0.13 |
| Lynn's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 78 | 22.81 | 101.26 | 0.82 | 6.71 | 8.50 | 57.15 | 0.35 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Chargers | 16 | 11.13 | 18.31 | 156.19 | 0.5 |
| 2020 Chargers | 16 | 12.69 | 20.31 | 170.63 | 1.19 |
| Lynn's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 78 | 11.47 | 18.76 | 159.53 | 0.92 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Chargers | 16 | 4.25 | 6.13 | 49.5 | 0.38 |
| 2020 Chargers | 16 | 5.06 | 8.13 | 58 | 0.5 |
| Lynn's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 78 | 4.33 | 6.59 | 49.27 | 0.36 |
Anthony Lynn Takeaways & Expectations
Over the course of Anthony Lynn's 78 game career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role, his offenses have averaged 35.13 passing attempts per game. In his past two years with the Chargers, the usage has been higher than his career average, with the Chargers attempting 37.31 passes per game in 2019 and 39.19 passes per game in 2020. This passing volume suggests that Jared Goff will get at least an average number of passing attempts in 2021, and maybe even an above-average amount.
But besides passing, it is also important to look at the rushing usage of Anthony Lynn's quarterbacks over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach. Over the course of his career, Lynn's quarterbacks have averaged 2.92 carries per game.
Given Jared Goff isn't the most nimble quarterback, we should expect this ground usage for the Lions quarterbacks to remain low in 2021. Overall, based on Anthony Lynn's previous coaching tendencies and Jared Goff's ability, we should expect Jared Goff to be more in the QB2 or streaming option range of fantasy football leagues in 2021.
Looking at the running back position, Anthony Lynn has been one of the best in the business in utilizing the position. Over the course of his career, Lynn's tailbacks have averaged 22.81 carries and 0.82 rushing touchdowns per game - both of which are above average.
Looking at the graph above, clearly, Anthony Lynn will provide his running backs with work on the ground - which bodes well for any fantasy players rostering D'Andre Swift or Jamaal Williams. But besides the amount of volume (carries) on the ground that Lynn has historically provided, we also need to consider how that volume has been distributed over the course of his career - is Anthony Lynn typically rolling with a bell-cow or a running back by committee approach?
Looking at the data, at the start of his career, Anthony Lynn took more of a bell-cow approach to the position (2016 & 2017). But over the last three years, his lead back in season carries has topped out at 175 carries (Melvin Gordon in 2018). It is important to note that injuries may be skewing the data a bit over the last three seasons since the lead-backs Melvin Gordon (2018 & 2019) and Austin Ekeler (2020) each missed 4+ games, but this will be something to pay attention to going forward - especially since both D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams have flashed talent in the past.
The final aspect we should look at regarding Anthony Lynn's running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them as pass-catchers. Over the course of his career, Lynn's running back room has averaged 8.50 targets per game - which is one of the better marks among play-callers in the NFL.
If you are rostering one of the Detroit Lions running backs in your fantasy league, the Anthony Lynn hiring should make you ecstatic since the bread and butter of Anthony Lynn's offenses has been the running back utilization - with an above-average number of opportunities provided both on the ground and through the air. Based on this information, D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams should be great draft targets in your fantasy league.
Looking at the wide receiver position, Lynn's offense has provided his wide receivers with 18.76 targets per game over the course of his career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role.
Looking at the graph above as well as comparing Anthony Lynn's career averages to the 'baseline' averages over the last two years, it's clear that Anthony Lynn's offense typically provides a slightly below-average number of targets to his wide receivers. Based on this information, it's likely that only one Detroit Lions wide receiver will have an opportunity to be fantasy-relevant in 2021.
Finally, Lynn's historical usage of tight ends is fairly mediocre. Over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach, Anthony Lynn's tight end room has averaged 6.59 targets per game.
While Lynn's career average is fairly mediocre, it is encouraging to see that he provided his tight ends with the most work ever in his career last season. And considering Lynn is working with one of the best tight-end talents in the league in T.J. Hockenson now, there's a good chance that he builds upon this usage from last season. Based on this information, T.J. Hockenson should be one of the most reliable tight end targets in fantasy drafts outside of the Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller tier.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Jared Goff, D'Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perriman, Quintez Cephus, Geronimo Allison, Amon-Ra St. Brown, T.J. Hockenson, and Darren Fells
2021 Defense
2021 Defensive Coordinator: Aaron Glenn
2021 will be Aaron Glenn's first season as a defensive coordinator at any level. As a coach, he's spent the last five seasons as the New Orleans Saints defensive backs coach and had a hand in the development of players like Vonn Bell, Marcus Lattimore, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. He also played cornerback at the NFL level for the New York Jets (1994-2001), Houston Texans (2002-2004), Dallas Cowboys (2005-2006), Jacksonville Jaguars (2007), and New Orleans Saints (2008).
| Aaron Glenn NFL Coaching Career | ||
| Year | Team | Role |
| 2014-2015 | Cleveland Browns |
Assistant Defensive Backs Coach
|
| 2016-2020 | New Orleans Saints | Defensive Backs Coach |
| Present | Detroit Lions | Defensive Coordinator |
It's more difficult to project what kind of production we will see from the Detroit Lions defense because this is Aaron Glenn's first year ever serving as a defensive coordinator. Based on his previous success working with defensive backs, it's likely that the team's passing defense improves a little bit and is closer to the league average in 2021. Overall, it's important to remember that Glenn will be working with one of the worst defenses from a year ago and it may take him a couple of years to turn it into a league-average defense. From a fantasy perspective, the Detroit Lions D/ST should not be drafted in any of your leagues.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Dave Fipp - Dave Fipp is new to the Detroit Lions coaching staff in 2021. He's been coaching since 1998 and was most recently the Philadelphia Eagles special teams coordinator (2013-2020). Fipp has also worked in the NFL as an assistant special teams coach for the San Francisco 49ers (2008-2010) and Miami Dolphins (2011-2012).
QB Coach: Mark Brunell - 2021 will be Mark Brunell's first year coaching at the NFL level after spending eight seasons coaching at the Episcopal School of Jacksonville (2013-2020). He also played quarterback in the NFL for the Green Bay Packers (1993-1994), Jacksonville Jaguars (1995-2003), Washington Redskins (2004-2007), New Orleans Saints (2008-2009), and New York Jets (2010-2011).
RB Coach: Duce Staley - Duce Staley will be the Detroit Lions running backs coach as well as assistant head coach. He previously spent time coaching for the Philadelphia Eagles as a special teams quality control coach (2011-2012), running backs coach (2013-2020), and assistant head coach (2018-2020). Staley also played in the NFL for the Philadelphia Eagles (1997-2003) and Pittsburgh Steelers (2004-2006).
WR Coach: Antwaan Randle El - Antwaan Randle El will serve as the Detroit Lions wide receivers coach in 2021 after previously spending time as an offensive assistant for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2019-2020). Randle El also played wide receiver in the NFL for the Pittsburgh Steelers (2002-2005, 2010) and Washington Redskins (2006-2009). He is also well-known for being one of the biggest 'cheat codes' in the NFL Street video game series.
TE Coach: Ben Johnson - Ben Johnson has been with the Detroit Lions since 2019 and served as the team's tight ends coach since 2020. He previously spent time coaching for the Miami Dolphins in a variety of roles from 2012-2018.
OL Coach: Hank Fraley - Hank Fraley has been with the Detroit Lions since 2018 and has served as the team's offensive line coach since 2020. He's helped coach offensive lines at the college and NFL levels since 2012, and also played center at the NFL level for the Philadelphia Eagles (2000-2005), Cleveland Browns (2006-2009), and St. Louis Rams (2010).
DL Coach: Todd Wash - Todd Wash joins the Detroit Lions in 2021 as the defensive line coach after most recently spending five seasons as the Jacksonville Jaguars defensive coordinator (2016-2020). At the NFL level, he's previously served as a defensive line coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2008-2010), Seattle Seahawks (2011-2012), and Jacksonville Jaguars (2013-2015).
ILB Coach: Mark Deleone - Mark Deleone is new to the Detroit Lions coaching staff in 2021. He's previously been an inside linebackers coach at the NFL level for the Kansas City Chiefs (2018) and Chicago Bears (2019-2020). Deleone has also worked at the NFL level as a defensive assistant for the New York Jets (2012), a defensive quality control coach for the Kansas City Chiefs (2013-2015), and an assistant linebackers coach for the Kansas City Chiefs (2016-2017).
OLB Coach: Kelvin Sheppard - 2021 will be Kelvin Sheppard's first season as a coach at any level after serving as the director of player development for LSU in 2020. Sheppard played linebacker in the NFL for the Buffalo Bills (2011-2012), Indianapolis Colts (2013), Miami Dolphins (2014-2015), and New York Giants (2016-2017).
DB Coach: Aubrey Pleasant - Aubrey Pleasant is new to the Detroit Lions coaching staff in 2021 and will serve as the defensive backs coach as well as passing game coordinator. At the NFL level, he's spent time as a coaching intern for the Cleveland Browns (2013), an offensive assistant for the Washington Redskins (2013), a defensive quality control coach for the team formerly known as the Washington Redskins (2014-2016), and as the cornerback's coach of the Los Angeles Rams (2017-2020).
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC South: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos
AFC East: New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills
NFC South: Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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