RADIO
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
The Tennessee Titans are a team that will largely keep their coaching staff intact. The Titans will bring back the same head coach (Mike Vrabel), offensive coordinator (Todd Downing), and defensive coordinator (Shane Bowen) from the 2021 season, and have minimal changes among the position coaches.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Titans players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Titans coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Titans' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
| 2021 League Average | 34.40 | 244.13 | 1.54 | 3.99 | 17.36 | 0.18 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
|
2021 League Average
|
21.66 | 92.20 | 0.69 | 4.82 | 6.22 | 36.36 | 0.19 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
|
2021 League Average
|
12.45 | 19.75 | 155.55 | 0.96 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
|
2021 League Average
|
4.77 | 6.93 | 50.44 | 0.37 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 2020 League Average | 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
| 2021 League Average | 23.0 | 228.3 | 115.2 | 63.3 | 5.4 | 1.3 |
2022 Offense
2022 Offensive Coordinator: Todd Downing
In the 2021 offseason, Todd Downing was promoted from tight ends coach to offensive coordinator after Arthur Smith left to be the Atlanta Falcons' new head coach. He did a solid job filling the void, as the Titans went 12-5 and averaged 24.6 points per game (15th best in the NFL). Let's dive into some statistics from Downing's prior experience as an offensive coordinator to get a better understanding of how the Titans may utilize their offensive players in 2022.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2017 Raiders | 16 | 34.88 | 235.06 | 1.44 | 1.56 | 5.06 | 0 |
| 2021 Titans | 17 | 31.47 | 220.29 | 1.29 | 3.59 | 15.53 | 0.41 |
| Downing's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 33 | 33.12 | 227.45 | 1.36 | 2.61 | 10.45 | 0.21 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2017 Raiders | 16 | 20 | 82.44 | 0.63 | 5.06 | 7 | 37.75 | 0.13 |
| 2021 Titans | 17 | 28.24 | 123.65 | 0.94 | 4.71 | 5.94 | 36.65 | 0.06 |
| Downing's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 33 | 24.24 | 103.67 | 0.79 | 4.88 | 6.45 | 37.18 | 0.09 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2017 Raiders | 16 | 11.81 | 20.13 | 142.5 | 1.19 |
| 2021 Titans | 17 | 11.41 | 18.29 | 143.24 | 0.76 |
| Downing's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 33 | 11.61 | 19.18 | 142.88 | 0.97 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2017 Raiders | 16 | 4.44 | 6.88 | 52.75 | 0.13 |
| 2021 Titans | 17 | 4.82 | 6.29 | 39.82 | 0.47 |
| Downing's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 33 | 4.64 | 6.57 | 46.09 | 0.30 |
Todd Downing Takeaways & Expectations
Looking at the quarterback position, Todd Downing's teams have averaged 33.12 passing attempts, 227.45 passing yards, and 1.36 passing touchdowns per game over the course of his career. All of these numbers are below the league averages we've seen the last couple of years and will limit Ryan Tannehill's fantasy upside for the 2022 season.
In addition, in the fantasy football world, it's important to pay attention to the amount of work on the ground a quarterback receives since it can be like a cheat code. In his 33-game career as an offensive coordinator, Downing's quarterback room has averaged 2.61 carries, 10.45 rushing yards, and 0.21 rushing touchdowns per game.
Ryan Tannehill did take off more last year than Derek Carr did in Downing's offense during the 2017 season, but it still wasn't significant enough to have a major impact on his fantasy value. From a fantasy perspective, Tannehill should be valued somewhere in the QB2 range based on his talent and situation.
Moving on to Todd Downing's running back room, it's a tale of two seasons. With the Raiders, Downing's running back room averaged 20 carries, 82.44 rushing yards, and 0.63 rushing touchdowns per game on the ground. Meanwhile, with the Titans last year, his running back room averaged 28.24 carries, 123.65 rushing yards, and 0.94 rushing touchdowns per game.
As long as the Titans' offense is built around Derrick Henry, the team will give their running backs an above-average number of carries. In terms of the distribution of carries, has Downing been feeding one player or conducting a running back by committee approach during his time as an offensive coordinator?
Starting with the Raiders, Downing went with a bell-cow approach giving 31-year-old Marshawn Lynch 207 of the team's 320 season running back carries (64.69%). With the Titans last year, Downing again went with the bell-cow approach and fed Derrick Henry a ton on the ground – until Henry got hurt in Week 8. After Henry's injury, the team took more of a running back by committee approach for the rest of the season. With Derrick Henry fully healthy for the 2022 season, expect Downing to go back to the bell-cow approach and feature King Henry frequently on the ground.
The final aspect we should look at concerning Todd Downing's running backs is how much he uses them in the passing game. In his one season as an offensive coordinator in Oakland, Downing's running back room averaged seven targets per game. Last year for the Titans, the team's running back room averaged 4.71 receptions on 5.94 targets for 36.65 receiving yards and 0.06 receiving touchdowns.
These numbers may seem average when comparing them directly to the league averages, but the 2021 averages were actually a major upgrade from the team's 2020 running back receiving averages under Arthur Smith. Overall, the Titans' offense is built around the running game and Derrick Henry. As long as Henry remains healthy he should be an RB1 once again in the 2022 season.
Looking at the wide receiver position, Downing provided his wide receivers with 20.13 targets per game as the Oakland Raiders' offensive coordinator in 2017 and 18.29 targets per game as the Titans' offensive coordinator last year.
These numbers are slightly below the league averages during this time. The team will have a new receiver corps in 2022 led by Robert Woods and rookie Treylon Burks after they traded star wideout A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles (as well as released Julio Jones), so the team may lean even more on the running game than usual early on in the season. Given their talent, both Woods and Burks are worth mid-to-late-round draft selections depending on your league settings, but Downing's offense will likely keep them at a more average workload.
Last but not least, we need to look at how Todd Downing has historically utilized his tight ends. Over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator, Downing's tight end room has averaged 4.64 receptions on 6.57 targets for 46.09 receiving yards and 0.30 receiving touchdowns per game.
These career numbers are slightly below the league averages over the past couple of years. Based on this information, Austin Hooper is shaping up to be more of a streamer for the 2022 season than a player you roster all season.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Ryan Tannehill, Malik Willis, Derrick Henry, Hassan Haskins, Dontrell Hilliard, Jordan Wilkins, Robert Woods, Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Dez Fitzpatrick, Austin Hooper, and Geoff Swaim
2022 Defense
2022 Head Coach: Mike Vrabel
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2020 Titans | 16 | 27.44 | 277.44 | 120.81 | 67.25 | 5.92 | 1.44 |
| 2021 Titans | 17 | 20.82 | 245.24 | 84.59 | 61.12 | 5.40 | 1.29 |
| Vrabel's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 81 | 23 | 246.40 | 106.83 | 63.52 | 5.56 | 1.25 |
Mike Vrabel signed on to become the Tennessee Titans head coach in 2018, and since then he's led the team to four consecutive winning seasons. While the team's records have been good, the defenses have been mediocre at best – which is disappointing given Vrabel's defensive background. Let's take a look at some of Vrabel's team defensive statistics during his time as the Houston Texans defensive coordinator (2017) and as the Tennessee Titans head coach (2018-Present).
2022 Defensive Coordinator: Shane Bowen
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 2021 Titans | 17 | 20.82 | 245.24 | 84.59 | 61.12 | 5.4 | 1.29 |
| Bowen's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 17 | 20.82 | 245.24 | 84.59 | 61.12 | 5.4 | 1.29 |
While Shane Bowen only has one year of officially being a defensive coordinator under his belt, it was rumored that he was the de facto defensive coordinator in the 2020 season. Since he's only been in the defensive coordinator role on Mike Vrabel's staff, his defensive statistics will be the same as Vrabel's – but we'll include them below to make sure he gets some recognition for his work.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Craig Aukerman - Craig Aukerman has been the Titans' special teams coordinator since 2018. He's also spent time in the NFL with the Denver Broncos as a defensive assistant (2010), the Jacksonville Jaguars as a defensive assistant (2011) and as an assistant special teams coach (2012), San Diego Chargers as an assistant special teams coach (2013-2015) and special teams coordinator (2016), and as the assistant special teams' coach on the Tennessee Titans (2017).
Passing Game Coordinator: Tim Kelly - The Titans brought on Tim Kelly to be the team's passing game coordinator in 2022. Kelly served as the Houston Texans' offensive coordinator from 2019 to 2021 and seems most likely to step in as the team's offensive coordinator if Todd Downing misses time.
QB Coach: Pat O'Hara - Pat O'Hara has been the Titans' quarterbacks coach since 2018. In the NFL he previously spent time with the Houston Texans as an offensive assistant (2015-2017) and as a quarterbacks coach (2017).
RB Coach: Tony Dews - Tony Dews has been coaching football since 1998. He became the Titans running backs coach in 2018 after serving as West Virginia's running backs coach in 2017. The Titans are the only NFL team that Dews has worked for.
WR Coach: Rob Moore - Rob Moore played 12 seasons in the NFL as a wide receiver, spending time with the New York Jets (1990-1994) and Arizona Cardinals (1995-2001). He has been the Tennessee Titans wide receivers coach since 2018 after previously spending time coaching NFL wide receivers for the Buffalo Bills (2014) and Oakland Raiders (2015-2017).
TE Coach: Luke Steckel - Luke Steckel has been with the Tennessee Titans since 2013 in a variety of roles, but he's only been coaching tight ends since 2021. Prior to joining the Titans, Steckel was an assistant to the head coach for the Cleveland Browns (2009-2012).
OL Coach: Keith Carter - Keith Carter has been the Tennessee Titans' offensive line coach since 2018. Some of his other roles in the NFL include being the Seattle Seahawks offensive quality control coach (2012-2013), the Atlanta Falcons assistant offensive line (2015-2016), and the Atlanta Falcons running backs coach (2017).
DL Coach: Terrell Williams - Terrell Williams has been a defensive line coach since 1998. Prior to joining the Tennessee Titans in 2018, he spent time with the Oakland Raiders (2012-2014) and Miami Dolphins (2015-2017) in the same role.
OLB Coach: Ryan Crow - Ryan Crow has been with the Tennessee Titans since 2018 but has only been coaching outside linebackers since 2021. He previously was a defensive assistant (2018-2019) and the assistant special teams (2020) coach for the team.
ILB Coach: Bobby King - Inside linebackers coach is the one position coach that will change for the Titans in 2022, going from Jim Haslett to Bobby King. King spent the last five seasons with the Houston Texans working in various roles ranging from linebackers to defensive line.
Secondary Coach: Anthony Midget - Anthony Midget has been the Titans' secondary coach since 2020. He previously spent time with the Houston Texans as the assistant secondary coach (2014-2017) and as the secondary coach (2018-2019).
Safeties Coach: Scott Booker - Scott Booker has been in the coaching world since 2003. He's been the Titans' safeties coach since the 2020 season, after previously serving as a defensive assistant on the team (2018-2019).
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC South: Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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