RADIO
New Year's Day is a college football fan's fantasy.
The playoffs this year take place on New Year's Eve, making the college football viewing experience a complete two days of action. It kicks off at noon Thursday with the Peach Bowl.
Below are my predictions with analysis on each game.
College Football Playoffs - Analysis & Predictions
Peach Bowl: Florida State -6.5 vs. Houston 12/31 12 p.m.
Florida State is not as good as their 10-2 record seems. They played the 57th hardest schedule, facing two ranked teams all year. They lost to Clemson, but demolished Florida, whose defense scored more than its offense in that game.
The Seminoles will be without starting quarterback Everet Golson, due to suspension. That leaves Sean Maguire to start. His play in the last five games has been fine but nothing spectacular. Florida State will want to run the ball– not letting Maguire lose the game– with star back Dalvin Cook. Cook ran for 1,698 yards this season along with 18 touchdowns. He averages 7.9 yards per carry, second in the nation. Houston's rush defense ranks 12th, allowing 116 yards per game. Cook may face a tough test, but should prevail.
Behind dual-threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr., the Cougars rank 21st in total offense. Ward had 2,590 passing yards to go along with 1,041 rushing yards this season. Florida State is 17th in passing efficiency defense, and 32nd against the run. It's very hard to stop a dual-threat quarterback, especially one as lethal as Ward is. Additionally, I love how Houston is third in the nation in turnover margin. Florid Stare is tied for 38th.
I like Houston in this one. I wonder if Florida State will even show up for this game. This is Houston's super bowl and the motivation factor will surely be there. Houston can take care of the ball, and can stack the box, forcing Maguire to beat them.
Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State -6.5 vs. Notre Dame 1/1: 1 p.m.
Both of these teams saw their dreams of playing in the playoff lost on last second field goals. These two teams also met in the Fiesta Bowl in 2006, Ohio State won 34-20. I see a similar story unfolding here.
I love Ohio State in this game. Urban Meyer is the best coach at preparing for games like these. The Buckeyes have, arguably, the most NFL talent on their roster. They are completely loaded. The only question is, will they want to play in this game? We know what they can do when they want to play, as seen in the Michigan blowout. Even when they don't show up though –the case for most of the year– they still win. You can throw out the stats for this game, it really only matters about if Ohio State shows up or not.
Notre Dame's last outing was a heartbreaker to Stanford. Will there be any fight in this Irish team that overachieved in a season where they lost their starting quarterback and running back? Lay the points, and put some faith in Urban Meyer. Meyer is 9-2 against the spread in bowl games, while Brian Kelly is 2-6.
Rose Bow: Standford -6 vs. Iowa 1/1 5 p.m.
I completely agree with Colin Cowherd's view on Iowa's whole season. They played a weak schedule, 59th in the nation, and didn't have to face Michigan, Ohio State, or Michigan State in the regular season (they played Michigan St. in the Big Ten Championship.) This is Iowa's first Rose Bowl appearance since 1991. Fans from Iowa are driving through a snow storm to get to the game in Pasadena. They are so excited about this.
For Iowa, this is a chance to show everyone that they are for real, and that everyone was wrong about this team. I watched a lot of Iowa's games this year, and I was surprised to see them score a lot. They are a good team. They may not have scheduled well, but they did away with their competition. Even when they got behind to Indiana early, they came back and won. Iowa's 11th ranked rush defense will have its hands full with Heisman runner-up Christian McCaffrey, but if they can slow him down a bit, Iowa will be in a good position.
Stanford is Pac-12 team, but plays a tough kind of power football. They'll run behind their powerful offensive line, continually wearing their opponent down. I just don't think Stanford really wants to be here again, as this is their third time in the past four years in the Rose Bowl. Will they be excited for this game? I don't think so. They are not happy to be here. They wanted to play for a national championship this year. The Pac-12 fell apart around Stanford, as this was their year to make the playoff and they blew it in a loss at home to Oregon. Iowa is excited about this game, and it will show. I am not sure Iowa will win, but they will definitely cover.
Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss -7.5 vs. Oklahoma State 1/1 8 p.m.
Not much to say about this game. I like Oklahoma State here. Ole Miss lost their best player, Robert Nkemdiche, for the game. I am way too scared to lay more than a touchdown to a team that lost its best defensive player, going up against an offense that ranks 19th in total offense. Ole Miss is 10th in total offense, and faces the Cowboys 94th ranked defense. Ole Miss's defense ranks 55th nationally. All signs point to a shootout. I always favor the underdog in a shootout, especially an offense as dynamic as Oklahoma State.
Semifinal Orange Bowl: Oklahoma -3.5 vs. Clemson 12/31 4 p.m.
I think Oklahoma is the most balanced team on both sides of the ball. They have incredible athletes, and dynamic playmakers on both the offense and defense. Clemson hasn't proved anything to me. They hung on against Notre Dame winning by two, came from behind to beat Florida State, and squeaked past North Carolina. Clemson also sent three players home for failing a drug test. Distractions are never a good thing especially at this time of year. Baker Mayfield quarterbacks the Oklahoma offense brilliantly. It's so fluid and when everything clicks, no one can stop Oklahoma. I think Oklahoma wins it all.
Semifinal Cotton Bowl: Alabama -9.5 vs. Michigan State 12/31 8 p.m.
9.5 is way too many points for a team that beat Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon, and Iowa. Every time Michigan State has played in a big game, they've brought their A game. They have the 'world against us' mentality and I love it. No one is giving them a chance in this one, people are simply penciling in Alabama for the national championship. I also can't bet Jake Coker as this big of favorites against a defense he will most likely struggle against. He hasn't faced a Big Ten defense all season.
Additionally, Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart– the new head coach at Georgia– will coach in what could be his final game. I don't like coaching instability, especially for a playoff game. I am not sure who wins, but this game will be really really close.
