X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Connelly Doan's Bold Predictions for 2020

Welcome to the 2020 fantasy baseball season everybody! While we will not have actual baseball for a while, we can still prep for when that time does come. One of the most satisfying things throughout the season (and in life in general) is to call a long shot. To get something right while acting as a contrarian is a great feeling and I am openly trying to do that today. This is my first time participating in the bold prediction series and I am ready to go for it!

I’ll try to make some interesting takes without being too outlandish. After all, if I am going to go on record with these takes I’d like to get at least a few of them correct! Hopefully, these will pique your interest and help you roll the dice in your leagues this season! With that said, it’s time to fire away. 

One note before we get started; I have based all my predictions on a 162-game season. Given the delay of the season, who knows how many games will actually be played in 2020. Rather than try to alter my predictions based on a guess, I am going to keep everything as is and my success or failure will be judged on the sentiment of my predictions.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including Best MLB Series, NFL Series, NBA Writer, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!

 

Dinelson Lamet will be a Top-20 SP

I’ll start with a relatively easy one here. Plenty of people in the fantasy community have pegged Lamet as a potential breakout candidate. The 27-year-old returned from Tommy John surgery in 2019 to go 3-5 with a 4.07 ERA over 73 innings pitched. This is obviously not inspiring on the surface.

However, he has an impressive 30.6% career strikeout rate thanks in part to a 96 MPH fastball and a nasty set of curveball and slider. Further, his 3.61 SIERA in 2019 suggests that he got unlucky on balls in play. He’s currently the 34th starting pitcher off the board in drafts but will return much better value. Now healthy and with an improved lineup supporting him, Lamet will pitch 180 innings and regress towards his 2019 SIERA with that high strikeout rate.

 

Hunter Harvey will lead the Orioles in saves with 25

Fantasy value can be found in all kinds of places, including bad teams. And believe me, the Orioles are going to be bad this season. The O’s are clearly in full rebuild mode and 12 different players saw save opportunities for the club last season. This season they will finally get to take advantage of a prospect they have been waiting on for some time.

Hunter Harvey has not yet been able to make an impact at the big-league level because he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. However, he posted an impressive 1.42 ERA with 11 strikeouts in the 6 ⅓ innings he pitched last season. He is now healthy and is clearly the O’s most dynamic bullpen option. With some interesting young team talent and nothing to lose, the O’s will see what Harvey can do and will give him the reigns. His 98 MPH fastball and fantastic mullet will not disappoint.

 

DJ LeMahieu will not be a Top-100 player

Dj LeMahieu broke out in pinstripes last season, posting an impressive .327/.375/.518 slash line with a career-high 26 home runs and 102 RBI. His expected stats were all in the top-12 percent of baseball, he hits in one of baseball’s best lineups in a hitter-friendly environment, and he is eligible at three different positions. As such, everyone is on the DJ hype train for 2020; his current ADP is 64.

To me, his 2019 performance simply does not seem repeatable. This is a guy who has never hit for power, despite playing most of his career in Coors Field. Until last season, he had never had more than 66 RBI or 15 HR in a season. His 2019 power numbers were all significantly higher than his career marks (slugging average: .518 vs .423, hard-hit rate: 40.4% vs 31.7%, HR/FB rate: 19.3% vs 9.6%) while his batted-ball profile was not that much better than his career marks (launch angle: 6.7 degrees vs 4.5, exit velocity: 91.7 MPH vs 90.4). This picture screams regression to me and fantasy players will be lucky to get top-100 value for him in 2020, let alone top-65.

Advertising

 

Marcus Semien will not hit 20 HR

Speaking of power, this next guy had an excellent 2019 season, posting a .285/.369/.522 slash line with a career-high 33 HR and finished third in the AL MVP voting. Marcus Semien has always been a middling fantasy option, thanks mostly to the 10 steals he’ll give you, but thanks to his performance last season, he is currently being drafted at pick 89 ahead of shortstops like Carlos Correa and Corey Seager.

Semien did improve his plate discipline last season, posting a career-high walk rate and a career-low strikeout rate. However, his hard-hit rate jumped nearly 10% from 2018 to 2019 (41.7% vs 32.5%), which is insane and seemingly flukey. Playing in one of baseball’s most pitcher-friendly parks, Semien had only ever hit more than 20 long balls once in his career. I’ll bet in favor of his career averages here.

 

Shane Bieber will not be a Top-10 SP

I could not figure this guy out last season, so I’m doubling down now. Shane Bieber was a breakout fantasy pitcher in 2019, racking up 15 wins and a crazy 30.1% strikeout rate with a tidy 3.28 ERA over 214 ⅓ IP. These numbers look fantastic and are being rewarded by fantasy players; Bieber is currently going as the seventh pitcher off the board. However, several underlying metrics lead me to believe he will not repeat this performance in 2020.

The first is the movement, or lack thereof, of Bieber’s offspeed pitches. Both his curveball and slider had only roughly league-average vertical movement and at least 51% less horizontal movement than league average. As such, I question his ability to maintain a 30%+ strikeout rate. The second is his batted-ball profile. Bieber’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rate were both in the bottom five percent of baseball with a mediocre 12.4-degree launch angle. Getting hit that hard spells trouble for me. All in all, Bieber will not return the value he is being drafted at.

 

Amed Rosario will hit 20 HR, steal 30 bases

I am quite high on this next guy and think 2020 will be the season he fully breaks out. 24-year-old Amed Rosario has shown progression in each of his Major League seasons, posting a .287/.323/.432 slash line with 15 HR, 72 RBI, and 19 stolen bases in 2019. There are some signs that suggest to me that he can do even better in 2020.

The first is his plate discipline. Rosario has never walked all that much, but he has lowered his swing rate on pitches out of the strike zone each season (38.1% O swing rate) and has increased his swing rate on pitches inside the strike zone each season (71.8% Z swing rate). Regardless of how he gets on base, the more Rosario does, the more opportunities he has to steal bases. The second is his batted-ball profile. Rosario posted a respectable 39.1% hard-hit rate in 2019 and upped his average launch angle to 8.8 degrees. If he continues trending in that direction, there is no reason to believe he can’t hit another five long balls.

 

Chris Davis will be fantasy-relevant in 2020

Ok, this one is based on a very small sample size, rather than anything we’ve seen from him the past several seasons. Chris “Crush” Davis has been one of baseball’s worst players over the past several seasons (no exaggeration). However, he has been a fantasy asset in the past and is truly Crushing it this spring training, so I’ll take the bait.

Small sample sizes are difficult to derive meaning from, but Davis has looked great this spring training, hitting .467 with a .615 on-base percentage, three HR, and nine RBI in 15 at-bats. These numbers obviously wouldn’t last throughout an entire season, as Davis is a career .234 hitter, but they show that his mind is in the right place. Baseball is as much a mental game as it is physical and if Davis can get his head in the right place, he could return to a semblance of his former self. With an average ADP of 691, Davis would be a huge value if he hit .250 with even 25 HR.

Advertising

 

Mike Yastrzemski will be at least a Top-250 player, pushing Top-200

This outfielder was a late bloomer and was a surprise fantasy asset in 2019. 29-year-old Mike Yastrzemski put up a solid rookie season, compiling a .272/.334/.518 slash line with 21 HR and 55 RBI over 411 plate appearances. That being said, he is currently being drafted as the 334th overall player. While the fantasy community doesn’t believe in Yastrzemski’s ability to replicate his success, I do.

It is true that the Giants will not be all that competitive, but Yastrzemski is slated to start for them this season. A full-time workload will give him more opportunity to rack up counting stats. Further, his underlying metrics seemed convincing. Yastrzemski put forth a 42.9% hard-hit rate in 2019, an 18.5-degree launch angle, an 18.4% HF/FB rate, and expected batting metrics al within the top third of baseball. I think Yastrzemski is underrated and will be a big fantasy asset in 2020.

 

Jorge Soler will hit a max of 25 HR and will not be a Top-30 OF

Jorge Soler was a huge fantasy surprise in 2019, crushing 48 long balls and racking up 117 RBI. The 28-year-old had never come close to those numbers in his career, but fantasy players seem to think he can do it again, as he is currently being drafted 86th overall as the 25th outfielder. This, to me, is a big overvalue.

Two things stand out to me. The first is his hard-hit rate; Soler’s mark jumped from 41.3% in 2018 to a crazy 49.9% in 2019. The second is his whopping 28.1% HR/FB rate. Simply put, these do not seem sustainable given his career marks. Soler is a career .255 hitter who had never hit more than 12 HR in a season or had more than 47 RBI. I see regression to the mean as a pretty easy call here.

 

Jesus Luzardo will be a Top-20 Pitcher

Ok, so this final prediction may not be quite as bold for some of you, but I have a hard time trusting younger players until they have proven themselves. However, this player looks like an exception. 22-year-old Jesus Luzardo looks like he could be the real deal. He has a good mix of four pitches, he throws in the high-90s, and has shown a history of striking batters out with strong command.

The fantasy community is certainly aware of Luzardo, but he is currently going as the 41st overall pitcher in drafts. While it is hard to say exactly what his numbers will look like in 2020 if he can pitch enough innings I see no reason why he can’t be 2020’s Shane Bieber. I’m going all-in on Luzardo here and think he will be a huge fantasy asset.




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

WIN MORE IN 2024

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Alexis Diaz fantasy baseball closers rankings draft sleepers waiver wire pickups

MLB Closers and Saves: Fantasy Baseball Depth Charts

Saves are an important component for many fantasy baseball leagues. Closers are one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball, and one of the highest turnover positions in MLB. Each year, closers drop like flies and many MLB teams make in-season changes due to injuries or poor performance. In addition to closers and saves, relief... Read More


Do These Prospects Matter for Fantasy Baseball?

The 2023 fantasy baseball season has been highlighted by the promotion of nearly two-dozen top prospects to the major leagues to impact fantasy rosters. This week's edition features one player who was called up as the piece was being written. Will these strong performers join the ranks of those who have moved to the majors... Read More


clayton kershaw fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

articles report test

this is a test


Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Welcome back! It's Week 24 of our fantasy baseball Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups series! There are just two precious weeks left, and every start is becoming more and more important as most of the fantasy baseball world is in playoff matchups. If you've made it this far, there's a good chance you don't really... Read More


Aaron Nola - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Starts & Sits for MLB Week 23 - All Starting Pitcher Matchups for Fantasy Baseball

Welcome back RotoBallers! Big week in fantasy leagues as we approach the end of the season and playoffs! As always, we are here with our starting pitcher starts and sits series to help you set those winning lineups for the week ahead! For those who are not familiar, RotoBaller puts out a weekly grid of... Read More


Gunnar Henderson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Points League Hitters: Waiver Wire Pickups for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Welcome to Week 24 and our fantasy baseball waiver wire hitters. We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax. Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform,... Read More


Brayan Bello - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Two-Start Pitcher Streamers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Yo, it's Jon Anderson, continuing to run the show here in terms of late-summer fantasy baseball writing. There are just two weeks left of streaming pitchers, so let's make it count! This weekly fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups column aims to identify starting pitchers expected to make two starts in the upcoming fantasy baseball week,... Read More


Fantasy Baseball Week 24 Injury News and Updates: Tyler Glasnow, Ozzie Albies, Starling Marte, Anthony Rizzo, Zack Wheeler

September is now more than half over. The baseball season is slowly coming to a close. At this point, fantasy players are pushing for their league titles or just playing for pride. Major League Baseball teams continue to do the same and injuries continue to happen, now with the dreaded term "done for the season"... Read More


Joe Musgrove - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/17/22)

Happy Saturday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More


DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/17/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups

Today's MLB slates are split up as is the norm for September baseball. Half the guys I think will play will not, so you have to be as flexible as Gumby to play MLB DFS in September, but that also means that there is a lot of money out there should you dare to dive... Read More


Max Fried - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/15/22)

Happy Friday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More


Robbie Ray - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, Draft Sleepers

DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/16/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups

Fridays are big MLB DFS days and offer a nice respite from the NFL, who command our attention on Thursdays, Sundays, and Mondays. This slate, like most Friday slates, is a big one as all MLB teams are in action today and 28 of those teams are on tonight's 14-game DFS slate. This was a... Read More


kyle farmer fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Top Hitter Streamers and Starts for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

There are only two weeks left of fantasy baseball! It's going to be very sad when the season comes to an end, but the impending end of the season means that these are the most important, and therefore most fun weeks of the year – for those of you still competing, at least. I have... Read More


TODAY’S MOST VIEWED PLAYERS

rotating JS ad test

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
derrick henry fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

test publish 5 mins in future

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The... Read More


PrizePicks NFL DFS Picks - Monday Night Football

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The... Read More


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL RBs: Updates for Aaron Rodgers

Warning: Undefined array key "amp_post_template_footer" in /var/www/rotoballer.com/wp-content/plugins/php-code-for-posts/Classes/Shortcode.php(91) : eval()'d code on line 6 Warning: foreach() argument must be of type array|object, null given in /var/www/rotoballer.com/wp-content/plugins/php-code-for-posts/Classes/Shortcode.php(91) : eval()'d code on line 6 Featured Promo: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off and win big in 2022. Exclusive access to our Premium articles, 15 lineup... Read More


derrick henry fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

PrizePicks NFL DFS Picks - Monday Night Football

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The... Read More


Justin Jefferson - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Injury News

NFL DFS Prop Picks for Monkey Knife Fight - Monday Night Football

Welcome to NFL Monday Night Football, where we have two games scheduled between the Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles and the Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills.  Monday's games mean our friends at Monkey Knife Fight are offering some fantastic props for us to play once again! The good people at Monkey Knife Fight offer some... Read More


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL RBs: Week 2 Updates for Najee Harris, J.K. Dobbins, D'Andre Swift, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram

Below you will find our fantasy football injuries report for running backs in Week 2, as of September 17. The injury statuses for various NFL running backs are up in the air for Week 2 including D'Andre Swift, Najee Harris, Alvin Kamara, J.K. Dobbins, and more. The fantasy football season may be just getting underway,... Read More


michael pittman jr. fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL WRs: Week 2 Updates for Michael Pittman Jr., Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, Allen Lazard, Julio Jones

Welcome to Week 2 of the fantasy football season and the Saturday edition of our WR injury reports! Below you will find our fantasy football injuries report for wide receivers in Week 2 as of September 16th. The injury statuses for various NFL wide receivers are up in the air for Week 2, including Michael... Read More


justin herbert fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports for QBs: Week 2 Updates for Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston, Mac Jones

Below you will find our updated fantasy football injuries report for quarterbacks in the days before Week 2 of the 2022 NFL season as of Friday, September 16. There are a few NFL QBs dealing with injuries, including Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston, and Mac Jones. Being up-to-date on NFL injury news can give... Read More


Trey Lance - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Fantasy Football Week 2

Every week, I share some of my favored choices and players to go with when dealing with challenging lineup decisions. These selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a discount and get access to my ranks in all formats, plus... Read More


Saquon Barkley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, Draft Sleepers

Week 2 NFL Pick Em Selections for No House Advantage

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is underway and that means our friends over at No House Advantage have a TON of great DFS plays we can look to take advantage of. No House Advantage is a unique DFS prop picks site where you do not have to play against the house to... Read More


Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 2: Greg Dortch, Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk

Week 1 made some things come to light as we got some clarity on some murky situations. Unfortunately, many of our WR targets for DFS last week were victims of this. Robert Woods finished the game with one reception for 13 yards, as the Titans used the rookie receivers much more than him. Brandon Aiyuk... Read More


Carson Wentz - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Thunder Dan's NFL Betting Picks for Week 2: Top NFL Player Props Bets

Football season is back! Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything! This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks... Read More


Fantasy Football IDP Injury Reports For NFL Defensive Players: Week 2 Updates for T.J. Watt, Jamal Adams, Jalen Thompson, Ed Oliver

T.J. Watt owners, you know the feeling... I had T.J. Watt in my home league last season. He was constantly checking out of games early with nagging minor injuries, but he must have led every IDP manager who started him to the playoffs. I went back to the well and drafted him early this year.... Read More