Connelly Doan's Bold Predictions for 2020

Welcome to the 2020 fantasy baseball season everybody! While we will not have actual baseball for a while, we can still prep for when that time does come. One of the most satisfying things throughout the season (and in life in general) is to call a long shot. To get something right while acting as a contrarian is a great feeling and I am openly trying to do that today. This is my first time participating in the bold prediction series and I am ready to go for it!

I’ll try to make some interesting takes without being too outlandish. After all, if I am going to go on record with these takes I’d like to get at least a few of them correct! Hopefully, these will pique your interest and help you roll the dice in your leagues this season! With that said, it’s time to fire away. 

One note before we get started; I have based all my predictions on a 162-game season. Given the delay of the season, who knows how many games will actually be played in 2020. Rather than try to alter my predictions based on a guess, I am going to keep everything as is and my success or failure will be judged on the sentiment of my predictions.

Dinelson Lamet will be a Top-20 SP

I’ll start with a relatively easy one here. Plenty of people in the fantasy community have pegged Lamet as a potential breakout candidate. The 27-year-old returned from Tommy John surgery in 2019 to go 3-5 with a 4.07 ERA over 73 innings pitched. This is obviously not inspiring on the surface.

However, he has an impressive 30.6% career strikeout rate thanks in part to a 96 MPH fastball and a nasty set of curveball and slider. Further, his 3.61 SIERA in 2019 suggests that he got unlucky on balls in play. He’s currently the 34th starting pitcher off the board in drafts but will return much better value. Now healthy and with an improved lineup supporting him, Lamet will pitch 180 innings and regress towards his 2019 SIERA with that high strikeout rate.

Hunter Harvey will lead the Orioles in saves with 25

Fantasy value can be found in all kinds of places, including bad teams. And believe me, the Orioles are going to be bad this season. The O’s are clearly in full rebuild mode and 12 different players saw save opportunities for the club last season. This season they will finally get to take advantage of a prospect they have been waiting on for some time.

Hunter Harvey has not yet been able to make an impact at the big-league level because he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. However, he posted an impressive 1.42 ERA with 11 strikeouts in the 6 ⅓ innings he pitched last season. He is now healthy and is clearly the O’s most dynamic bullpen option. With some interesting young team talent and nothing to lose, the O’s will see what Harvey can do and will give him the reigns. His 98 MPH fastball and fantastic mullet will not disappoint.

DJ LeMahieu will not be a Top-100 player

Dj LeMahieu broke out in pinstripes last season, posting an impressive .327/.375/.518 slash line with a career-high 26 home runs and 102 RBI. His expected stats were all in the top-12 percent of baseball, he hits in one of baseball’s best lineups in a hitter-friendly environment, and he is eligible at three different positions. As such, everyone is on the DJ hype train for 2020; his current ADP is 64.

To me, his 2019 performance simply does not seem repeatable. This is a guy who has never hit for power, despite playing most of his career in Coors Field. Until last season, he had never had more than 66 RBI or 15 HR in a season. His 2019 power numbers were all significantly higher than his career marks (slugging average: .518 vs .423, hard-hit rate: 40.4% vs 31.7%, HR/FB rate: 19.3% vs 9.6%) while his batted-ball profile was not that much better than his career marks (launch angle: 6.7 degrees vs 4.5, exit velocity: 91.7 MPH vs 90.4). This picture screams regression to me and fantasy players will be lucky to get top-100 value for him in 2020, let alone top-65.

Marcus Semien will not hit 20 HR

Speaking of power, this next guy had an excellent 2019 season, posting a .285/.369/.522 slash line with a career-high 33 HR and finished third in the AL MVP voting. Marcus Semien has always been a middling fantasy option, thanks mostly to the 10 steals he’ll give you, but thanks to his performance last season, he is currently being drafted at pick 89 ahead of shortstops like Carlos Correa and Corey Seager.

Semien did improve his plate discipline last season, posting a career-high walk rate and a career-low strikeout rate. However, his hard-hit rate jumped nearly 10% from 2018 to 2019 (41.7% vs 32.5%), which is insane and seemingly flukey. Playing in one of baseball’s most pitcher-friendly parks, Semien had only ever hit more than 20 long balls once in his career. I’ll bet in favor of his career averages here.

Shane Bieber will not be a Top-10 SP

I could not figure this guy out last season, so I’m doubling down now. Shane Bieber was a breakout fantasy pitcher in 2019, racking up 15 wins and a crazy 30.1% strikeout rate with a tidy 3.28 ERA over 214 ⅓ IP. These numbers look fantastic and are being rewarded by fantasy players; Bieber is currently going as the seventh pitcher off the board. However, several underlying metrics lead me to believe he will not repeat this performance in 2020.

The first is the movement, or lack thereof, of Bieber’s offspeed pitches. Both his curveball and slider had only roughly league-average vertical movement and at least 51% less horizontal movement than league average. As such, I question his ability to maintain a 30%+ strikeout rate. The second is his batted-ball profile. Bieber’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rate were both in the bottom five percent of baseball with a mediocre 12.4-degree launch angle. Getting hit that hard spells trouble for me. All in all, Bieber will not return the value he is being drafted at.

Amed Rosario will hit 20 HR, steal 30 bases

I am quite high on this next guy and think 2020 will be the season he fully breaks out. 24-year-old Amed Rosario has shown progression in each of his Major League seasons, posting a .287/.323/.432 slash line with 15 HR, 72 RBI, and 19 stolen bases in 2019. There are some signs that suggest to me that he can do even better in 2020.

The first is his plate discipline. Rosario has never walked all that much, but he has lowered his swing rate on pitches out of the strike zone each season (38.1% O swing rate) and has increased his swing rate on pitches inside the strike zone each season (71.8% Z swing rate). Regardless of how he gets on base, the more Rosario does, the more opportunities he has to steal bases. The second is his batted-ball profile. Rosario posted a respectable 39.1% hard-hit rate in 2019 and upped his average launch angle to 8.8 degrees. If he continues trending in that direction, there is no reason to believe he can’t hit another five long balls.

Chris Davis will be fantasy-relevant in 2020

Ok, this one is based on a very small sample size, rather than anything we’ve seen from him the past several seasons. Chris “Crush” Davis has been one of baseball’s worst players over the past several seasons (no exaggeration). However, he has been a fantasy asset in the past and is truly Crushing it this spring training, so I’ll take the bait.

Small sample sizes are difficult to derive meaning from, but Davis has looked great this spring training, hitting .467 with a .615 on-base percentage, three HR, and nine RBI in 15 at-bats. These numbers obviously wouldn’t last throughout an entire season, as Davis is a career .234 hitter, but they show that his mind is in the right place. Baseball is as much a mental game as it is physical and if Davis can get his head in the right place, he could return to a semblance of his former self. With an average ADP of 691, Davis would be a huge value if he hit .250 with even 25 HR.

Mike Yastrzemski will be at least a Top-250 player, pushing Top-200

This outfielder was a late bloomer and was a surprise fantasy asset in 2019. 29-year-old Mike Yastrzemski put up a solid rookie season, compiling a .272/.334/.518 slash line with 21 HR and 55 RBI over 411 plate appearances. That being said, he is currently being drafted as the 334th overall player. While the fantasy community doesn’t believe in Yastrzemski’s ability to replicate his success, I do.

It is true that the Giants will not be all that competitive, but Yastrzemski is slated to start for them this season. A full-time workload will give him more opportunity to rack up counting stats. Further, his underlying metrics seemed convincing. Yastrzemski put forth a 42.9% hard-hit rate in 2019, an 18.5-degree launch angle, an 18.4% HF/FB rate, and expected batting metrics al within the top third of baseball. I think Yastrzemski is underrated and will be a big fantasy asset in 2020.

Jorge Soler will hit a max of 25 HR and will not be a Top-30 OF

Jorge Soler was a huge fantasy surprise in 2019, crushing 48 long balls and racking up 117 RBI. The 28-year-old had never come close to those numbers in his career, but fantasy players seem to think he can do it again, as he is currently being drafted 86th overall as the 25th outfielder. This, to me, is a big overvalue.

Two things stand out to me. The first is his hard-hit rate; Soler’s mark jumped from 41.3% in 2018 to a crazy 49.9% in 2019. The second is his whopping 28.1% HR/FB rate. Simply put, these do not seem sustainable given his career marks. Soler is a career .255 hitter who had never hit more than 12 HR in a season or had more than 47 RBI. I see regression to the mean as a pretty easy call here.

Jesus Luzardo will be a Top-20 Pitcher

Ok, so this final prediction may not be quite as bold for some of you, but I have a hard time trusting younger players until they have proven themselves. However, this player looks like an exception. 22-year-old Jesus Luzardo looks like he could be the real deal. He has a good mix of four pitches, he throws in the high-90s, and has shown a history of striking batters out with strong command.

The fantasy community is certainly aware of Luzardo, but he is currently going as the 41st overall pitcher in drafts. While it is hard to say exactly what his numbers will look like in 2020 if he can pitch enough innings I see no reason why he can’t be 2020’s Shane Bieber. I’m going all-in on Luzardo here and think he will be a huge fantasy asset.