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RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in contact rate over the last seven days.
The tool can be found here. Keep in mind, any statistic being viewed in such a small sample size will never be incredibly predictive on a granular level. But if any stat can be looked at over seven days, it's contact rate which stabilizes very quickly. What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, seeing the ball better, etc. If we know who is seeing and hitting the ball better as of late, even if it’s just a seven-day period, then we at least have a start in figuring out whether you should be buying or selling on that particular player.
This particular article will focus on three contact rate risers and fallers apiece, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat them. Due to the nature of the often-refreshed contact rate tool, you may sometimes see players listed in this article who are no longer in the top % of risers/fallers (but was within the last few hours). This article will be posted on Wednesdays; if you have any questions or comments feel free to send me an email (Andrew.bua@gmail.com), tweet (@Andrew_Bua), or reach out on Reddit (/u/CitiStrikeouts)
Contact Rate Risers
Marcell Ozuna (OF, MIA): 75% Season Contact Rate, 85% L7 Contact Rate (+10%)
After absolutely mashing in the month of May to the tune of a .411/.450/.705 slash line (to go along with seven homers, 25 runs scored, and 17 RBI), Ozuna has been the complete opposite in the first few days of June. Hitting .067 this month, Ozuna could use a boost. Fortunately for him, he finds himself among the top risers in contact % over the last week.
One thing that stands out here is that during the past week, Ozuna has been hitting the ball harder (40% hard hit ball rate) than his insane May (39.1%). Further, while his his swinging strike rate was 12.1% during his hot streak, he’s even better now (7.6%) during his contact uprise. While you should never buy Ozuna expecting a return to May-form, he’s a candidate to buy as someone who should start producing again very soon.
Prince Fielder (1B, TEX): 77% Season Contact Rate, 84% L7 Contact Rate (+7%)
Prince Fielder has had an awful first two months this season, not hitting for power or average. Part of that has to do with his 77% contract rate on the year, which would be his lowest since 2009. As the contract rate tool indicates, Prince has made some strides in that department over the last week, however. Does it mean he’s rounding (pun intended) into form? Absolutely not.
Due to the emergence of Jurickson Profar, Fielder has only played in four games over the last seven days and is 2-for-17 during that span. Additionally, his hard hit ball rate is only 27.3% for the season (which would be his career-low), and over the past week that figure is even worse at a dreadful 15.4%. Bottom line here is, Prince Fielder isn’t even getting consistent playing time, and when he is, he’s not hitting. Good luck trying to sell him at this point, though.
Russell Martin (C, TOR): 71% Season Contact Rate, 79% L7 Contact Rate (+8%)
Russell Martin is another player who has been underwhelming this year, but shows up as someone making more contact than usual the last week. What’s been surprising about Martin’s season is that his hard hit ball rate would be a career high (34.9%), but the rate at which he’s pulling the ball (also 34.9%) would be his lowest since 2010 (33.6%). However, the contract increase over the past week has led to increases in both his hard hit ball rate (38.5%) and pull percentage (46.2%).
As we all know, fantasy baseball catchers this season have been…bad. With Martin also hitting for a bit more power recently (.438 SLG the last week vs. .287 for the year), it won’t take much for him to be worth starting. He’s not going to reach his .290 batting average of 2014, or his 23 homers of 2015, but he’s worth buying low if the opportunity is there.
Contact Rate Fallers
Ben Zobrist (2B/OF, CHC): 88% Season Contact Rate, 79% L7 Contact Rate (-9%)
Ben Zobrist has been on an absolute tear in his first season as a Chicago Cub. His counting stats are well ahead of 2015’s pace, and his averages similarly look to shatter last year’s numbers. The past seven days have not been kind to Zobrist, however, with his 9% decrease in contact rate leading to a 0-for-18 drought during that span. Reason for concern here? Probably not.
Zobrist’s contact rate was bound to fall a bit – his current 88% rate trails only last year’s 88.6%. His full season career-low? 82% in 2009. So long as his contact rate doesn’t continue to plummet, there’s no reason to sell on Zobrist (especially hitting in the potent Cubs lineup).
Nick Castellanos (3B, DET): 74% Season Contact Rate, 64% L7 Contact Rate (-10%)
Nick Castellanos has enjoyed a breakout 2016 thus far. His 10 homers, 27 runs scored, and 33 RBI are on pace to easily surpass his career-highs, and his .317/.347/.550 slash line is well above anything he’s ever produced at the Major League level. His 74% contact rate would be a full-season career-best, but now he finds himself on our list with a 10% dip in the past week.
It could be a reason for concern depending on what you’re looking for Castellanos to contribute to your team. His slash line is already boosted by his .383 BABIP, thus it’s likely to come down some as it is. Combine that with a contact rate that is slipping towards his previous figures and Castellanos’ averages could look more pedestrian. If you’re looking for counting stats, Castellanos is a safe hold; if you’re expecting him to contribute a high batting average all year, you should consider selling.
Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF, BOS): 76% Season Contact Rate, 61% L7 Contact Rate (-15%)
Jackie Bradley Jr. joins our list as another player who had an incredible May, but has seen his contact rate slip over the first week of June. Bradley’s season contact rate hasn’t been that high above his career mark of 74.1%, and is only 1% greater than his career best 74.9%. What is concerning here is simply how bad Bradley has been at pitches outside the zone recently. While his Z-Contact rate is 12.6% lower during this cold streak (bad enough on its own), his O-Contact Rate is a horrendous 37.5%. That’s 26.1% lower than his number for the season.
It looks as though pitchers have adjusted to Bradley, and it’s up to him to start hitting pitches outside the zone to make them afraid again. Given Bradley’s penchant for streakiness in the past, this could be the sign of worse things to come. He’s too talented to sell, but his contact decrease is definitely that shouldn’t be easily dismissed yet.
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