RADIO
RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in contact rate over the last seven days.
The tool can be found here. Keep in mind, any statistic being viewed in such a small sample size will never be incredibly predictive on a granular level. But if any stat can be looked at over seven days, it's contact rate which stabilizes very quickly. What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, seeing the ball better, etc. If we know who is seeing and hitting the ball better as of late, even if it’s just a seven-day period, then we at least have a start in figuring out whether you should be buying or selling on that particular player.
This particular article will focus on three contact rate risers and fallers apiece, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat them. Due to the nature of the often-refreshed contact rate tool, you may sometimes see players listed in this article who are no longer in the top % of risers/fallers (but was within the last few hours). This article will be posted on Wednesdays; if you have any questions or comments feel free to send me an email (Andrew.bua@gmail.com), tweet (@Andrew_Bua), or reach out on Reddit (/u/CitiStrikeouts)
Contact Rate Risers
Yasiel Puig (OF, LAD): 74% Season Contact Rate, 87% L7 Contact Rate (+13%)
Fantasy owners have been waiting for Yasiel Puig to turn things around all season long (and for the better part of the last two years for that matter). Over the last seven days it would seem as if things are starting to click, where Puig’s increased contact rate has brought him a .368/.368/.526 slash line over that span. Is the last week a flash in the pan, or a sign that Puig is here to stay?
Puig's current 74% rate is already higher than his 72.4% career rate, so his struggles weren’t for lack of contact. Additionally, his 34% hard hit ball rate is only .6% less than his career mark, so its not as if that’s been suffering either. You might want to wait and see, but he’s definitely not worth buying simply because of the increased contact rate.
Logan Forsythe (2B, TB): 78% Season Contact Rate, 90% L7 Contact Rate (+12%)
After a big-time breakout in 2015, Logan Forsythe has proven he’s no fluke by repeating his success in 2016 as well. He missed some time due to injury, but he’s picked up right where he left off. An interesting note about his season so far has been his lack of contact compared to his career figure. His 78% contact rate would be a career low; he’s never finished below 80.4% in over four Major League seasons. Thus, Forsythe’s contact rate was bound for a jump.
Regardless of the above, Forsythe’s BABIP is something to monitor: his .359 mark on the season is 36 points higher than 2015’s and 47 points higher than his career average. So, while we can expect Forsythe’s contact rate to jump higher, we should also probably expect his BABIP to fall a bit. Still, at 29 years old Forsythe is hitting the ball harder than ever (34.6%) and should be in his prime. If you’re in need of a second basemen, you should be buying here.
Joc Pederson (OF, LAD): 76% Season Contact Rate, 88% L7 Contact Rate (+12%)
Continuing the trend of Dodgers on the contact risers list is outfielder Joc Pederson. Pederson’s 76% season contact rate would already be a career-high, and his .272 BABIP would also be a career-best. These stats have helped him achieve a .236 batting average so far this season, which like the others, would also be his best. Whether you should buying or selling on Pederson probably depends on what you expect out of him.
Is Pederson's increased contact suddenly going to result in a significantly higher batting average moving forward? Probably not, but at 24 years of age it’s certainly possible his increased contact is a result of growth and development. You aren’t buying in because Pederson is becoming a totally different player, but you might be buying in because he’s a power-hitting youngster whose plate discipline could be showing signs of maturity.
Contact Rate Fallers
Billy Hamilton (OF, CIN): 83% Season Contact Rate, 67% L7 Contact Rate (-16%)
Outside of stealing bases, Billy Hamilton has never been a guy to light up fantasy leagues. A .255/.291/.375 slash line certainly isn’t winning fantasy owners much, but it’s still been better than what he’s done in his career previously. Hamilton’s 83% season contact rate matches his career mark, but his .318 BABIP is 14 points higher than his previous best. Thus, even if he continued to make contact at this rate, his BABIP and batting average were likely to come down. If he’s making less contact, then obviously those figures will come down further.
However, given that his contact rate is in line with his career numbers we probably shouldn’t expect it to continue falling. Plus, if you’ve been starting Hamilton, that probably means you’re able to live through his weak overall offensive numbers while you take advantage of his stolen bases. If that’s the case, you don’t have much to worry about. However, if you’ve been holding onto Hamilton because you thought he was turning into a new player, you should probably look to sell.
Jake Lamb (3B, ARI): 73% Contact Rate, 58% L7 Contact Rate (-15%)
In his third Major League season (but likely his first full season), Jake Lamb has been everything that fantasy owners could hope for at the hot corner. At only 25 years old with 15 homers and a .285/.364/.570 slash line, it would seem Lamb is only scratching the surface with how good he can be. Over the past week though, a 15% decrease in contact rate could have some owners worried. Fortunately, it doesn’t seem like this is a big reason for concern.
Lamb has already been succeeding with what would be a career-low 73% contact rate (with an admittedly small sample size) and a BABIP that currently sits nine points lower than 2015’s. Lamb continues to hit the ball harder than 2015 as well (41.2% compared to 36.3%), and he’s pulling the ball more as well (50.5% compared to 43.8% career rate). He’s a player that’s only getting better – you shouldn’t look to sell based on his recent contact rate woes.
Christian Yelich (OF, MIA): 80% Contact Rate, 69% L7 Contact Rate (-11%)
In his fourth Major League season, Christian Yelich has come into his own and is on pace to put up career-bests across the board. His .311 batting average would be the highest of his career, and is at least partly a result of his .375 BABIP. For an extremely high ground ball hitter like Yelich though, a high BABIP is nothing to be scared off by (.354 for his career). Furthermore, Yelich’s 80% season contact rate is right in line with his 80.2% career figure.
Even if his contact rate drops near his career-worst 76.2% rate, Yelich has proven he can maintain a high BABIP regardless, and as such should also maintain a good batting average. Nothing suggests that Yelich is going to produce significantly less than he is now, and so you shouldn’t look at his decreased contact rate over the past week as a reason to sell.
Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)
Fantasy Baseball Chat Room
[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]
Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!
