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RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in contact rate over the last seven days. The tool can be found here. Keep in mind, any statistic being viewed in such a small sample size will never be incredibly predictive on a granular level. But if any stat can be looked at over seven days, it's contact rate which stabilizes very quickly. What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, seeing the ball better, etc. If we know who is seeing and hitting the ball better as of late, even if it’s just a seven-day period, then we at least have a start in figuring out whether you should be buying or selling on that particular player.
This particular article will focus on three contact rate risers and fallers apiece, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat them. Due to the nature of the often-refreshed contact rate tool, you may sometimes see players listed in this article who are no longer in the top % of risers/fallers (but was within the last few hours). This article will be posted on Wednesdays; if you have any questions or comments feel free to send me an email (Andrew.bua@gmail.com), tweet (@Andrew_Bua), or reach out on Reddit (/u/CitiStrikeouts)
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Contact Rate Risers
Joey Votto (1B, CIN): 80% Season Contact Rate, 97% L7 Contact Rate (+17)
Joey Votto is a player who has been underperforming in 2016. The counting stats have been there, but his .265/.395/.463 slash line is well below his .307/.421/.529 career marks. Does his recent uptick in contact rate indicate his stats are on the rise?
It certainly seems that way. Votto’s .325 BABIP is 30 points below his career rate; that figure should increase towards his norm as he makes more contact. Furthermore, Votto has always picked things up in the second half. He owns a career .316/.433/.555 line for the second half, in comparison to .302/.413/.512 for the first half. A player like Votto should generally get the benefit of the doubt, and there is plenty working in his favor. Buy in on a hot streak coming up for the slugging first basemen.
Mike Napoli (1B/DH, CLE): 72% Season Contact Rate, 88% L7 Contact Rate (+16%)
Mike Napoli has already been having a better season than most expected, making it even more encouraging to see him on this list. However, he’s already a high strikeout guy and his 31.9 strikeout rate would be the second-worst of his career. Does the increase in contact mean even better things are ahead, or will Napoli revert back to his high strikeout ways?
During this recent streak, Napoli has been making contact on pitches inside the strike zone at an insane rate of 96.3%. That figure is unsustainable and will undoubtedly fall as pitchers start to throw outside the zone more. Additionally, Napoli owns a swinging strike rate of 4.2% during this contact rise. This would be a career-best by 5.7%. Napoli simply isn’t a player who has shown he can go long periods without swinging and missing quite often. Chances are, Napoli is unlikely to keep making contact at this rate and so an extended hot streak is probably not in order. There's no reason to buy in on the basis of a contact rate increase here.
Leonys Martin (OF, TEX): 73% Season Contact Rate, 86% L7 Contact Rate (+13%)
Leonys Martin used to be a fantasy player who derived solid value from his high stolen base totals. As those totals have fallen the past few seasons, so has his fantasy value. This season, he’s rehabilitated his use to fantasy owners a bit as he already has a career-best 11 home runs in his first season as a Mariner. With an increase contact rate over the last seven days, is Martin set to build upon what should be his best season in the Major Leagues?
Unless you are absolutely desperate for a decent combination of speed/power, which isn’t even great with Martin’s 11 homer/10 steal combination, he probably isn’t worth buying in on. He’s never going to be a strong contributor in batting AVG OBP, or SLG, and that’s already with a contact rate and BABIP close to his career figures. Chances are if you own Martin, you’re in a deeper league where his decent counting stats across the board are useful. If you’re in such a league, Martin is worth looking into. Otherwise, he likely won’t be a major producer anytime soon in smaller and standard leagues.
Contact Rate Fallers
DJ LeMahieu (2B, COL): 90% Season Contact Rate, 71% L7 Contact Rate (-19%)
Coming off his best season, DJ LeMahieu has done a great job continuing to take steps forward in 2016. In particular, he’s slugging the ball significantly better than ever before with a .487 rate and 22 doubles, already a career-high. As such, does his declining contact rate indicate his season has been too good to be true?
LeMahieu has always been a high contact rate player (86.1%), but thus far in 2016 he’s been outpacing anything he’s done previously in that regard. His 4.3% swinging strike rate would also be a career-best. A lot of things are working in his favor, but his contact rate is bound to slip at least a little bit from the crazy 90% rate he currently has. The question is, is that a reason to sell? Absolutely not. It’s clear LeMahieu is a legitimate fantasy player, and he certainly doesn’t need to maintain a 90% contact rate to stay that way. The contact rate may slip, but that’s no reason to sell on LeMahieu. Infact, if his owner in your league is concerned about the contact decrease, it could be the perfect time to buy.
Rougned Odor (2B, TEX): 78% Season Contact Rate, 63% L7 Contact Rate (-15%)
After a breakout 2015, Rougned Odor was a popular choice as someone to have a big year at second base. He’s largely lived up to that, but at the same time his already-low walk rate has dropped to a miniscule 2.2%. Furthermore, his strikeout rate has increased to 20.3%. Making even less contact recently, should owners be concerned?
Odor’s contact rate is currently sitting 5% lower than his previous career-worst; his 11.9% swinging strike rate would also be his poorest figure. The bottom line here is, Odor has had a productive year despite walking a lot less, striking out a lot more, and putting up a career-high (but still low) .298 BABIP. We’ve seen Odor suffer prolonged slumps previously, so it’s not out of the question the dynamic youngster could be in for another one. He’s not a player you absolutely must sell, but you should definitely give it some consideration with his season-long contact woes.
Kris Bryant (3B/OF, CHC): 71% Season Contact Rate, 59% L7 Contact Rate (-12%)
To put it mildly, Kris Bryant has been everything fantasy owners could have hoped for and more. As expected, he’s contributing massively across the board. Bryant has also cut back on his strikeout rate (23.4%) after punching out 30.6% of the time in his rookie season. Does his recent contact rate slip mean that strikeout rate is going to jump again?
It’s possible his strikeouts jump a bit, but its unlikely his overall production does the opposite. What you know is that Bryant has been mashing all season long. What you might not know, however, is that Bryant has been crushing it despite a BABIP (.317) that would be a career-worst (minor leagues included) by a healthy margin. Thus, even if Bryant’s contact rate dips and his strikeouts increase, by no means is there any indicator he’s headed for a slump. There’s no reason to sell here.
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