RADIO
![By Keith Allison on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as "Justin Upton") [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons](https://cdn.rotoballer.com/2016/08/justin-upton.jpg)
RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in contact rate over the last seven days. The tool can be found here. Keep in mind, any statistic being viewed in such a small sample size will never be incredibly predictive on a granular level. But if any stat can be looked at over seven days, it's contact rate which stabilizes very quickly. What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, seeing the ball better, etc. If we know who is seeing and hitting the ball better as of late, even if it’s just a seven-day period, then we at least have a start in figuring out whether you should be buying or selling on that particular player.
This particular article will focus on three contact rate risers and fallers apiece, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat them. Due to the nature of the often-refreshed contact rate tool, you may sometimes see players listed in this article who are no longer in the top % of risers/fallers (but was within the last few hours). This article will be posted on Wednesdays; if you have any questions or comments feel free to send me an email (Andrew.bua@gmail.com), tweet (@Andrew_Bua), or reach out on Reddit (/u/CitiStrikeouts)
Editor's Note: RotoBaller has the best Premium MLB Subscription for only $1.99 per week. We have all the tools to help win your seasonal and daily leagues: Hitter & Pitcher Streamers, Matchup Ratings for every player, Sleeper Surgers for AVG, HR, Ks, PLUS Daily DFS Cheat Sheets, Lineup Picks, Expert Lineups, Stacks and Avoids.
Contact Rate Risers
Byron Buxton (OF, MIN): 69% Season Contact Rate, 88% L7 Contact Rate (+19)
Seeing Byron Buxton on this list is music to the ears of the fantasy community, who have been waiting for a breakout since his first call to the Majors in 2015. Does Buxton’s recent increase in contact rate indicate the former top prospect is finally ready to be a star?
Unfortunately, making more contact isn’t the complete solve to Buxton’s issues. Even if he is seeing the ball better lately, the results aren’t there to the levels we’d like them to be. His slash line during the contact rate surge is a meek .167/.286/.222, which is actually worse than his pre-increase levels. It’s also important to keep in mind that Buxton’s struggles have come even with an above-average .319 BABIP; thus the issues aren’t for lack of luck. A player of Buxton’s talent is always worth watching, but in this particular case, more contact isn’t a reason to buy in.
J.T. Realmuto (C, MIA): 84% Season Contact Rate, 97% L7 Contact Rate (+13%)
For the better part of the last two seasons, J.T. Realmuto has produced at a higher rate than your average catcher (especially on the basepaths). Recently, he’s been even better in making more contact at the plate – does this mean an extended hot streak is in play?
Interestingly enough, he’s not hitting the ball as hard lately, but still seeing results. This is in part due to a .409 BABIP that is .42 points higher than his figure for the season, but what’s clear is that with a 7.5% line drive increase, Realmuto’s additional production isn’t from a ton more ground balls that are lucky enough to find holes. Even if he isn't about to go on a tear, you know with Realmuto you have a catcher that's better than the norm - the extra production from more contact is simply a bonus. If like most people the catcher position has been a sore spot for you all season long, buying in on Realmuto at least means you’re bound to get above-average statistics from that spot the rest of the year.
Justin Upton (OF, DET): 72% Season Contact Rate, 85% L7 Contact Rate (+13%)
If seeing Byron Buxton on this list was a big deal, then fantasy owners really have to be doing backflips to see Justin Upon here too. Is Detroit’s prized offseason acquisition finally coming around?
One big difference for Upton lately is the type of contact he’s making. In 2016, Upton has been all or nothing: he’s setting career-highs in soft and hard contact, while simultaneously seeing his medium contact rate diminish to a career-low. During this surge, his hard contact rate is up to an unsustainable 64.7%, but his 17.7% soft contact rate would also match his career mark. If the inevitable decrease in hard contact translates into more medium contact rather than soft contact, we could see a big turnaround. Further, his .333 BABIP is only .05 points higher than his career figure, so luck doesn’t have much to do with it. Given his likely low asking price, now would be the time to buy in on Upton.
Contact Rate Fallers
Yasmani Grandal (C, LAD): 76% Season Contact Rate, 59% L7 Contact Rate (-17%)
Much like J.T. Realmuto above, Yasmani Grandal has always been a reasonably productive catcher when he’s on the field. 2016 will likely go down as his best season to date, but is a slide on the way with his recent slip in contact rate?
Probably not, at least not to the point you should look to sell. Grandal has always been a high strikeout player; 2016 has been no different with a 24.6 K%. While he’s always been a high walk player too, contact rate has never been his forte. In three full seasons at the Major League level, Grandal has never eclipsed a 79% contact rate, and has never swung and missed less than 8.2%. So long as he keeps hitting for pop, that’s all fantasy owners really care about at a position that doesn’t produce much anyway. Even with a slump, he’s likely better than most options that are reasonably attainable.
Miguel Sano (3B/OF/DH, MIN): 66% Season Contact Rate, 51% L7 Contact Rate (-15%)
While Miguel Sano hasn’t put up the same averages as he did in his rookie season, he’s still been a solid producer from a counting stats perspective. A slumping contact rate, however, doesn’t work in his favor moving forward this year.
Given Sano’s abysmal contact rate normally, his success already depends on a smaller sample size of hits than most players. Even in the minor leagues, his best strikeout rate was only 25.1%. At the Major League level, that rate has jumped to 35.2%. He is simply a player who will always swing and miss a ton. If he’s going to whiff more, thereby decreasing his already incredibly low contact rate, simple logic dictates there will be an even lower cap on his production. He’s certainly a hold in keeper and dynasty leagues, but in redraft leagues you should keep him on your bench while he fights to make contact more.
Michael Saunders (OF, TOR): 75% Season Contact Rate, 63% L7 Contact Rate (-12%)
Michael Saunders has been a pleasant surprise this season; he looks likely to set career-highs across the board. Should owners be worried that his recent contact decrease indicates he’s regressing to the Saunders of old?
While Saunders has been producing despite a near career-low contact rate, there was always at least some regression expected. For awhile,, he was sporting a BABIP of over .400. Even as that number has fallen, however, the production has continued. Part of the reason could very well be the fact he plays in a lineup with two of the best hitters in the game (three if Jose Bautista gets going), and so he’ll always be in a position to score runs and drive men home. While a contact rate slip isn’t ideal, it likely won’t result in a prolonged slump given the lineup protection. Saunders was always a player that was a nice sell high candidate, but a contact rate dip by no means indicates any more of a reason to sell than before.
Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)
Fantasy Baseball Chat Room
[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]
