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RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in contact rate over the last seven days. The tool can be found here. Keep in mind, any statistic being viewed in such a small sample size will never be incredibly predictive on a granular level. But if any stat can be looked at over seven days, it's contact rate which stabilizes very quickly. What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, seeing the ball better, etc. If we know who is seeing and hitting the ball better as of late, even if it’s just a seven-day period, then we at least have a start in figuring out whether you should be buying or selling on that particular player.
This particular article will focus on three contact rate risers and fallers apiece, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat them. Due to the nature of the often-refreshed contact rate tool, you may sometimes see players listed in this article who are no longer in the top % of risers/fallers (but was within the last few hours). This article will be posted on Wednesdays; if you have any questions or comments feel free to send me an email (Andrew.bua@gmail.com), tweet (@Andrew_Bua), or reach out on Reddit (/u/CitiStrikeouts)
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Contact Rate Risers
David Freese (1B/3B, PIT): 76% Season Contact Rate, 96% L7 Contact Rate (+20%)
David Freese is in the midst of his best season since 2012, when he hit .293/.372/.467 with 20 homers. He’s made the biggest increase in contact rate this week, so should you be buying in?
Freese seems like a player whose contact rate was bound to jump at least a little bit. He’s been remarkably consistent in that department throughout his career with a 77.2% contact rate; his current figure for the season would be his second-worst. Given that Freese is having a resurgent season with a low contact rate, it makes sense to buy in when that contact rate is positively regressing. He’s not going to reach his 2012 totals, but he doesn’t need to in order to be useful. If you’re in a league deep enough where it was worth owning him before, he’ll likely add more value moving forward.
Matt Wieters (C, BAL): 78% Season Contact Rate, 90% L7 Contact Rate (+12%)
At a position that is barren to begin with, Matt Wieters has been a big disappointment for owners who invested in him this past spring. He’s finally been making more contact lately, does that mean a resurgence is in order?
Wieters may be making more contact, but he isn’t doing much with it. He’s only hitting .217 during his contact surge. Furthermore, he’s not hitting the ball hard recently (27.3% hard hit ball rate) or connecting on line drives (18.2% line drive rate). Finally, one of the standout statistics for Wieters’ struggles this year has been his inability to pull the ball; his 31.1% rate would be a career-worst. Despite making more contact, his line drive rate has fallen to an even worse 22.7%. He may be making more contact, but there’s no indication he’s seeing the ball any better. Don’t buy in on Wieters.
Carlos Correa (SS, HOU): 78% Season Contact Rate, 89% L7 Contact Rate (+11%)
Carlos Correa has had a very good season, but it hasn’t quite been the monstrous outbreak many were hoping for after his stellar rookie campaign. With his uptick in contact rate over the last week, are we about to see Correa go wild?
Correa may be making more contact as of late, but the results haven’t been great; he’s only mustered a .259 batting average over that span, which is .08 points lower than his season average. He’s not hitting the ball incredibly hard recently either; his 26.1% hard hit ball rate is over 10% lower than his mark for the year. Finally, his ground balls are up 13% over the last week, thereby contributing to his subpar results. Correa may be an incredibly attractive candidate in keeper/dynasty leagues, but it doesn’t look like a hot streak is coming. His contact rate increase isn’t a reason to buy in redraft leagues.
Contact Rate Fallers
Hunter Pence (OF, HOU): 71% Season Contact Rate, 52% L7 Contact Rate (-19%)
Hunter Pence has put up a solid .286/.360/.447 slash line in 2016, but due to injuries his counting stats have simply not been there. Even though he’s back on the field, does a reduction in contact rate mean owners shouldn’t be hoping for a late-season surge?
Despite averages above his career slash line, Pence has been making the least amount of contact of his career. Thus, a drop in contact rate isn’t necessarily reason by itself to panic, but the amount by which it dropped (19%) might be. Additionally, Pence hasn’t been able to continue his success with the recent decrease, as evidenced by his .207 batting average. If Pence already wasn’t making as much contact, and is now making even less contact with subpar results, it’s tough to see him bouncing back completely. Combining the above with the multiple injuries he’s had this season, selling Pence isn’t a bad idea.
Melvin Upton (OF, TOR): 66% Season Contact Rate, 54% L7 Contact Rate (-12%)
Fantasy owners who have been reaping the benefits of Melvin Upton’s resurgence this year cannot be happy to see his name here. But does it truly mean bad things are in store for one of the best power-speed threats?
Not necessarily. Even in Upton’s best years, he was never a high contact guy. This year has been especially bad with a career-worst contact rate. Although the analysis could be similar to Pence’s, Upton has a bit more going for him. His decrease in contact rate could have something to do with some inconsistent playing time. However, with Kevin Pillar hitting the disabled list Upton is likely to be in the lineup everyday. Consistent playing time in Toronto’s lineup is a benefit for any hitter, especially one as streaky as Upton. If his uptick in playing time gets his bat right again, he will pay dividends. Don’t sell here just yet – hold for now.
Adam Lind (1B/DH, SEA): 78% Season Contact Rate, 67% L7 contact Rate (-11%)
After a resurgent first season in Milwaukee last year, Adam Lind’s slash line (.233/.270/.441) has fallen off a cliff this year. A decrease in contact rate can only mean bad things, right?
Not quite, but that doesn’t mean you should have faith. Lind has actually hit much better as of late despite making much less contact; he’s put up a .333/.412/.533 slash line with one homer, four runs scored and two RBI over that span. However, his BABIP is an astronomical .500 – meaning he’s been getting incredibly lucky while whiffing more often. That won’t last long, and neither will Lind’s relevance. If he keeps swinging and missing, it’s only going to get worse. If you do have shares of Lind, you should be selling while he’s hot.
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