RADIO
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RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in contact rate over the last seven days. The tool can be found here. Keep in mind, any statistic being viewed in such a small sample size will never be incredibly predictive on a granular level. But if any stat can be looked at over seven days, it's contact rate which stabilizes very quickly. What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, seeing the ball better, etc. If we know who is seeing and hitting the ball better as of late, even if it’s just a seven-day period, then we at least have a start in figuring out whether you should be buying or selling on that particular player.
This particular article will focus on three contact rate risers and fallers apiece, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat them. Due to the nature of the often-refreshed contact rate tool, you may sometimes see players listed in this article who are no longer in the top % of risers/fallers (but was within the last few hours). This article will be posted on Wednesdays; if you have any questions or comments feel free to send me an email (Andrew.bua@gmail.com), tweet (@Andrew_Bua), or reach out on Reddit (/u/CitiStrikeouts)
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Contact Rate Risers
Freddie Freeman (1B, ATL): 72% Season Contact Rate, 86% L7 Contact Rate (+14%)
After a slow start to the season, Freddie Freeman finally got on track and has been producing at a higher rate than last year. With an increasing contact rate the last week, Freeman is a safe bet to keep tearing it up.
Freeman’s contact rate for the year would end up being his career-worst (he’s never finished below 75.8%). Additionally, his strikeout and swinging strike rate (25.5% and 14.9%, respectively), would also be new lows. The story here is Freeman has simply been swinging and missing more all season long, and now he’s not. He has enough of a track record to suggest he would positively regress in those areas at some point, and now seems to be the time. Freeman was already having a better season than 2015 despite making less contact, and now he’s hitting .364/.545/.1.045 over the last week. The increased contact should only mean Freeman continues to rake as we head towards the fantasy playoffs.
Troy Tulowitzki (SS, COL): 80% Season Contact Rate, 93% L7 Contact Rate (+13%)
2016 hasn’t been an awful season for Troy Tulowitzki, but it’s certainly been frustrating. His hot streaks have been few and far between; does his recent contact rate surge indicate another is on the way?
As evidenced by a career-worst .254 BABIP, Tulo hasn’t been the beneficiary of good luck this season. His line drive rate has sunk (16.5%) while his fly ball rate has skyrocketed (43.5%). He’s just not hitting the ball the way he used to. During his recent contact rate surge, his line drives are way up (35.3%) but his ground ball rate has fallen (29.4%) and he’s hitting the ball hard only 17.7% of the time. Plus, his BABIP during this span (.188) and slash line (.211/.348/.368) are worse than his pre-increase levels. He may be making more contact, but Tulo still isn’t producing results and so you shouldn’t buy in here.
Adam Duvall (OF, CIN): 75% Season Contact Rate, 87% L7 Contact Rate (12%)
Adam Duvall has had a breakout season in his first full campaign at the Major League level. In the minors, Duvall always displayed massive power potential while sporting batting averages that ranged from .252 - .298. With an increase in contact rate this week, is Duvall’s .248 average on the rise?
Duvall’s BABIP over the last seven days is .429, significantly higher than his .279 BABIP for the season. While he was never a high BABIP player in the minors, it was lower than .279 only once (2012: .274). Without much of a Major League track record to consider, it’s reasonable to think that figure could inch towards .300. We’re witnessing that now, as well as a batting average of .333 during his contact rate increase. While Duvall isn’t likely to become a .300 hitter, he should hit better than .247 and continue hitting a ton of longballs. He’s a good player to buy in on down the fantasy stretch.
Contact Rate Fallers
Christian Yelich (OF, MIA): 79% Season Contact Rate, 63% L7 Contract Rate (-16%)
Christian Yelich may not be the most exciting player in the world, but in some areas he is as consistent as it gets. With Yelich, you know you’re getting a ground ball rate around 60% and a .285 - .300 batting average. Given his consistency in those areas, a contact slump is nothing to panic over.
Even while making significantly less contact, when Yelich does hit the ball it’s usually on the ground. His 61.1% ground ball rate during the last week is actually higher than his figure for the season. Those ground balls have led to an even normally higher BABIP than usual lately (.471 vs. .390 for the year). As such, he’s put up a .321/.321/.571 slash line despite whiffing a lot more recently. If you’re a Yelich-owner, don’t panic: he’s fine.
Kolten Wong (2B, STL): 83% Season Contact Rate; 69% L7 Contact Rate (-14%)
It’s been a disappointing season for Kolten Wong, who just hasn’t been able to get going. His .238/.331/.326 slash line would be a full-season career-worst, and it doesn’t seem like it’s going to get any better.
Wong has had his fair share of issues in 2016, but contact rate has not been one of them. In fact, for the season he’s been making more contact than ever before. He doesn’t hit the ball hard (23% hard hit ball rate), doesn’t mash a ton of line drives (19.4%), and only has a .278 BABIP despite a high 49.5% ground ball rate. Wong is actually putting up a higher BABIP despite making less contact (.333), but has still been worse for wear with a .182 batting average. If he wasn’t hitting as it was and is now going to swing and miss more, you shouldn’t be counting on late-season heroics here. Let someone else deal with Wong.
Brian Dozier (2B, MIN): 81% Season Contact Rate, 69% L7 Contact Rate (-12%)
While never an outrageously high contact rate player, Brian Dozier has maintained an above average 82.5% figure for his career. He sits at 81% for the year but has seen that rate dip over the past week. Should owners be worried that Dozier will falter down the stretch?
Not likely. Despite the contact rate decrease, Dozier is hitting .321/.387/.786 the last week – better than his slash line for the year. Furthermore, he’s hitting line drives at a higher rate than he has all season long (22.7% vs. 16.7% in 2016). Thus, while Dozier may be making less contact recently, it’s clear he’s not necessarily seeing the ball much worse than usual. Given his usual contact rate consistency over the course of his career, it’s safe to say he won’t be whiffing at this rate for much longer. A contact rate decrease is no reason to sell on Dozier.
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