Corey Kluber (SP, TEX) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~80

CURRENT ADP: ~95 overall

ANALYSIS:

Kluber came into 2019 as the ace of the Indians, having finished third in the AL Cy Young voting in 2018. He was coming off of his fifth consecutive season having thrown over 200 innings and striking out over 200 batters. Despite this consistent streak of dominance, a 2-3 record, 5.80 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and 38 strikeouts in just 35.2 innings pitched in 2019 has some owners believing he’s nearing the end of his useful life as a fantasy asset. This is not the case. Kluber is a notoriously slow starter. Before he was able to get going in 2019, one freak injury combined with an oblique strain ended his season. Despite a small sample size before the injuries, Kluber showed the same fastball velocity, with only slight declines in velocity on his sinker, cutter, and curve (less than 1 MPH), in 2019 when compared to 2018. Additionally, Kluber yielded a lower overall exit velocity in 2019 versus 2018 and his SwStk rate of 12.3% was in line with his 2018 figure of 12.0%.

Turning 34 in April, we should not expect Kluber to throw another 200 IP season in 2020, especially having been sidelined since last May. That said, it is not out of the question to expect Kluber to rebound with a 160-to-180 IP campaign. Additionally, Kluber has strong career stats against the four AL West teams that he will be facing with more frequency now that he is with the Rangers. While the new Globe Life Field presents some uncertainty with regard to how it will play for pitchers, it has, roughly, similar dimensions to Progressive Field in Cleveland. As such, Kluber's new home stadium may not have much of an impact on his performance.

Owners looking to add Kluber to their rotation as a potential SP2 at a discounted round eight price tag (in 12-team league drafts) should do so. With nothing from his brief 2019 campaign suggesting an immediate drop-off in skill set, Kluber should bounce-back with numbers more closely aligned to his 2018 totals, albeit pro-rated to account for roughly 20-40 fewer IP, and deserves to be going closer to Jose Berrios at ADP 79 than where he currently is, outside the top 100.