Corey Kluber to the Rays - Fantasy Impact

The starting pitching market has been on fire early in the off-season. The veteran starting pitchers have been no exception.

Former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber signed a one-year, eight million dollar contract on November 27th with the Tampa Bay Rays. The veteran moves south but stays in the AL East after spending 2021 with the New York Yankees where he had some bright moments which included a no-hitter. Unfortunately, he suffered an injury and that, combined with his advanced age, kept his price down this off-season.

Let's look under the hood to see what Kluber has to offer in fantasy baseball now that he moves to Tampa.

A Deeper Look At Corey Kluber

Corey Kluber was one of the most interesting pitchers on the free-agent market this off-season. Kluber managed to finish 2021 with a 3.83 ERA, 3.85 FIP, and 4.38 xFIP which was good for a 1.5 WAR. However, he was limited to just 80 innings pitched as he dealt with various injuries. Yet, when Kluber was on the mound he pitched extremely well.

As you can see from the table below, Kluber finished 50th percentile or higher in nearly every relevant statistic outside of max exit velocity and BB %. Obviously, the age (35) and injury history is a concern but when healthy, Kluber still represents an above-average starter.

Prior to the 2021 season, Kluber had failed to top 35.2 IP in both 2019 and 2020 due to various injury issues. However, prior to 2019, Kluber completed five straight seasons with a 4.9 WAR or better. Considering Kluber's advanced age and laundry list injury history it would be extremely unfair to expect him to replicate what he did prior to 2019. That said, what we saw from Kluber in 2021 is more than repeatable and there are reasons to believe he could have an even better year in Tampa Bay.

Corey Kluber's Impact in Tampa Bay

An important reminder when discussing Kluber's impact in Tampa Bay should be that he isn't changing divisions. Kluber was able to put up very solid numbers last season in this same division. That said, the Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, and even the Orioles represent a murder's row of talented offenses and hitter-friendly ballparks. However, he moves his home park from Yankee Stadium, which grades out as the 17th most hitter-friendly ballpark, to Tampa Bay which ranks 26th (see below). Kluber will now get his home games in a ballpark that is set up for him to thrive. Especially considering his average strikeout rate.

Another aspect of Corey Kluber's arrival in Tampa that can not go overlooked is the quality of the Tampa Bay player development. The Rays have been the gold standard for player development as they continue to churn out winning teams with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball. Kluber will now be working with top-notch pitching coaches and player development personnel that will know how to get the best possible performance from the former Cy Young award winner.

One of the few negatives for Corey Kluber is how Tampa Bay typically uses their pitchers. The Rays are famous for their use of bullpen games and bulk innings pitchers. While Corey Kluber represents one of the best starters they have had, his age and injury history represent reasons to limit his workload as they typically do.

Corey Kluber's 2022 Fantasy Outlook

Corey Kluber's fantasy outlook is a tricky one. Steamer on Fangraphs currently projects Kluber for 148 IP with a 4.32 ERA, nine wins, 26 starts, and 140 strikeouts (see below). There are serious concerns he will hit anything near that amount of workload. Kluber hasn't topped 80 IP since 2018 and now he is heading to a place that limits pitcher workloads.

It seems that Kluber's best-case scenario is 150-155 IP. That said, the 4.32 ERA projection is much higher than expected after a 3.83 ERA in 2021 and a park upgrade for 2022. Kluber currently holds an NFC ADP of 435.38 which is absurdly low considering his past production, recent production, and new situation. There is a risk associated with Kluber but not at his current ADP. He is an SP 4/5 that is being drafted as the 171st pitcher off the board.

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