RADIO
Jim Herman captured his first PGA Tour victory holding off Henrik Stenson by one stroke to win the Shell Houston Open. I have picked Herman many times in this column in the past and I am glad the 38-year-old finally broke through. Stenson's second place finish is another tournament where he fell short. The Swede has not won on the PGA Tour since winning the Tour Championship in 2013.
Dustin Johnson finished two strokes behind Herman, 13-under, continuing his nice little run of late. In his last four tournaments, including the match play, Johnson finished fourth, T14, T5, and third. We'll see if it translates to The Masters this coming Thursday.
Last year's Masters was a blowout. Jordan Spieth ran away with it and the usual intense Sunday afternoon was a rather boring Sunday. Spieth was fantastic and no one could catch him. This year I expect the Masters to be a really tight tournament all the way till the 18th on Sunday. I also wonder how many times Jim Nantz will say "A tradition unlike any other, The Masters on CBS." I would say at least 10 times during the Saturday and Sunday broadcasts. Maybe more.
PGA Stats To Look At for Daily Fantasy Golf (DFS)
Through the last five tournaments, these three stats are most closely correlated to player's finishing positions (thanks to this blog for the great research). Players good in these stats will play well in the Masters. A good short game is also crucial for Masters success.
Bogey Avoidance
Birdie or Better Percentage
Greens in Regulation
Strokes Gained: Putting
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
Jason Day ($11,600)
Bogey Avoidance: T40
Birdie or Better Percentage: 8
Greens in Regulation: T65
Strokes Gained: Putting: 3
How is the world number one the fourth highest priced player on Draftkings? Day has been on a tear of late, winning his last two tournaments, the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Dell Match Play. He won the Match Play tournament with a bad back, which says a lot. Day won his first major last season, dominating the PGA Championship. With that elusive major finally under his belt, and the pressure off, I wonder how many more majors he can win. He was on the David Feherty show last Monday and seemed so confident for this upcoming year. His game is perfect for this course, as his results at Augusta have showed. He finished runner-up here in 2011, third in 2013, T20 in 2014, and T28 last season. He's my pick to win.
If you're not all in on Day, Bubba Watson ($11,400) is a perfectly suitable alternate, and comes $200 cheaper.
Another note, Phil Mickelson ($10,500) has looked great recently, but him missing short putts and a little bit of short game struggles, have me worried.
Justin Rose ($9,900)
Bogey Avoidance: 31
Birdie or Better Percentage: 16
Greens in Regulation: 31
Strokes Gained: Putting: 87
Since being cut at the Farmers Insurance, Rose has finished in the top-20 in four consecutive tournaments (excluding the match play). He finished T6 at Pebble Beach, T16 at the Northern Trust Open, T17 at the WGC- Cadillac, and T9 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Rose has finished in the top-25 in four consecutive Masters, including runner-up last year.
Louis Oosthuizen ($8,800)
Bogey Avoidance: 164
Birdie or Better Percentage: 94
Greens in Regulation: 40
Strokes Gained: Putting: 124
Louis was cut at the Houston Open this past week, which should make him a low owned player this week. Prior to the Houston Open, he finished 2nd at the Match Play Championship. At the end of February he won the Perth International. He also finished T14 at the Cadillac Championship and T7 at the Valspar Championship. He finished runner-up at the Masters in 2012, 25th in 2014, and T19th last year.
Patrick Reed ($8,300)
Bogey Avoidance: 2
Birdie or Better Percentage: T48
Greens in Regulation: 77
Strokes Gained: Putting: T151
Reed had a nice showing at the Houston Open, finishing T10, 9-under. Last year at the Masters Reed finished T-22. I think he will build off a good showing at the Houston Open and battle for a top-1o finish.
Danny Willett ($8,000)
Willett plays mostly on the European Tour, which is why his stats don't show up on the PGA's website. Willett's GIR on the European Tour would place him 8th on the PGA Tour. In his last two tournaments, besides for Mathc Play, he finished T3 at the Cadillac Championship, and T22 at the Valspar Championship. Last year was his first Masters and he finished T38. I think he may be a popular pick this week.
Jamie Donaldson ($7,000)
Bogey Avoidance: 170
Birdie or Better Percentage: 183
Greens in Regulation: 183
Strokes Gained: Putting: 2
Donaldson has been playing solid golf as of late, finishing T19 at the Houston Open this past week. In his last two Masters he's finished T14, and T33. If his putting is as good as the stat shows, he will finish in the top-20.
Ryan Moore ($6,800)
Bogey Avoidance: 46
Birdie or Better Percentage: 75
Greens in Regulation: 72
Strokes Gained: Putting: T30
In his last tournament Moore did not fare too well, finishing T74 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His stats are very solid for this price. He finished T12 at last year's Masters and I expect him to play well again.
Angel Cabrera ($6,500)
Bogey Avoidance: 205
Birdie or Better Percentage: 156
Greens in Regulation: 192
Strokes Gained: Putting: T116
I love watching him play. He is such a fast golfer and doesn't take many practice swings. He reminds me of myself on a golf course. Cabrera has won three tournaments on the PGA Tour, and two of those were majors, Masters and U.S. Open. The biggest stages bring the best out of him. He won a green jacket in 2009, finished T18 in 2010, 7th in 2011, runner-up in 2013, and T22 last year. Cabrera will either flame out and miss the cut, or finish in the top-20.
Smylie Kaufman ($6,000)
Bogey Avoidance: 47
Birdie or Better Percentage: 17
Greens in Regulation: 44
Strokes Gained: Putting: 89
Kaufman is the sleeper of the tournament. His stats are too good for his price range. He finished T8 at the Cadillac Championship and T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This will be his first Masters appearance, so hopefully the stage doesn't affect him.
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