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Ezekiel Elliott wasn’t the only Dallas Cowboy who dominated during his rookie season. Dak Prescott stunned the fantasy football world last year by throwing 23 touchdown passes while only getting intercepted four times and effectively supplanting Tony Romo at QB. Only New England’s Tom Brady had a better touchdown-to-interception ratio. Aaron Rodgers came close. So did Matt Ryan. Yet Prescott was second-best in the NFL when it came to keeping the ball out of the hands of defenders while putting the ball into the hands of his teammates in the end zone.
Prescott was taken by the Cowboys in the fourth round of the 2016 NFL Draft, the eighth quarterback that came off the board. But while highly-touted, high-round rookies like Los Angeles’ Jared Goff, Denver’s Paxton Lynch and New York’s Christian Hackenberg gave fantasy owners either ulcers or nothing at all, Prescott was the best baller of the bunch. He threw for 3,667 yards and added another 282 yards and six scores running the ball. Prescott was projected to be a game manager and ended up being the man who sent Tony Romo to the broadcast booth.
So what will Prescott do for an encore? Can fantasy owners honestly expect Prescott to duplicate when he did in 2016 in 2017? Can Prescott even get better and become a younger, more valuable version of Cam Newton? Or was Prescott a one-year wonder that the league will catch up to this year after watching film all offseason?
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Dak Prescott's Value
Dallas did not upgrade Prescott’s weapons on the outside, but his top four targets (Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley) are all back in the fold thanks to the Cowboys re-signing Williams. Elliott will continue to be Prescott’s workhorse back, so the only possible downgrade is at offensive line where the Cowboys lost two starters this offseason. Dallas’ line had nowhere to be go but down after being the best unit the past couple seasons, so Prescott might have a little less time to throw in the pocket if the revamped line does not gel well. They still rank in the top 10 under ProFootballFocus' latest offensive line rankings, so don't expect his sack rate to skyrocket.
Opposing defenses are going to be more attuned to what Prescott and the Cowboys are doing with their passing game, and the Cowboys should face tougher opposition since they will be stuck with a first-place schedule after winning the NFC East. These things should be evened out by Prescott having a year of experience under his belt, however, and he will not have the shadow of Romo hanging over him. Prescott now knows he is the main man. I do not believe he will replicate his ungodly TD-to-INT ratio from his rookie campaign, but Prescott should throw more in his second season. I would expect 3,800 passing yards, 26 touchdown tosses, 12 interceptions and another 300 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.
Now that we have Prescott’s projections set, will those numbers be enough to make him more valuable fantasy-wise then the rookie crop of quarterbacks that just entered the league? Three quarterbacks were drafted within the first dozen selections, so there are plenty of possible franchise QBs who could outshine Prescott in fantasy leagues in 2017 and surpass him in fantasy value in the future. Here is a look at the top three contenders:
2017 Rookie QB Class Values
Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
It appeared that Chicago had a game plan when the Bears signed Mike Glennon to a $45 million contract in the offseason. Glennon, a solid signal caller with a 30-to-15 career TD-to-INT ratio when he had chances to play before Jameis Winston unceremoniously sent him to the bench, was handed a hefty contract and the keys to Chicago’s rebuilding offense. Then on draft night, Chicago orchestrated a trade to move up and draft Trubisky, and suddenly nobody knew what Chicago’s plan or Glennon’s role actually was.
Trubisky might be the highest pick among rookie quarterbacks and the best first-year passer to draft in dynasty leagues, but he will probably have a hard time making a dent in fantasy leagues in 2017. He has to either wait for Glennon to get injured or be bad enough that Trubisky will be given an opportunity, and even if Trubisky gets the shot to start at some point he has to contend with an underwhelming receiving corps that on paper looks to be one of the NFL’s worst. It is hard to see Trubisky outperforming Prescott in year one, but down the road he could potentially end up being better if the Bears surround him with similar talent to what Prescott has around him. Jordan Howard and Cameron Meredith puts them at a good starting point, but they'll need Kevin White to prove he can stay healthy and be a playmaker.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
The son of former Major League Baseball pitcher Pat Mahomes should have no trouble topping his father in the fantasy value department since the elder Mahomes had a lifetime ERA of 5.47. Mahomes is a mobile quarterback who can throw on the run and is always looking to make the big play. That last part is something that Kansas City’s incumbent quarterback, Alex Smith, rarely does, so it makes sense why the Chiefs traded up to draft Mahomes.
Smith will be the starter heading into the upcoming season, however, and it would be a humongous surprise if Mahomes somehow beat him out for the job during the preseason. Mahomes could use as much seasoning as a plain chicken breast could. So between that and the fact the Chiefs have failed again to add any difference makers for their passing attack (and released Jeremy Maclin), Mahomes should not challenge Prescott in the fantasy department until possibly 2019.
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
Watson may have been selected after Trubisky and Mahomes in the first round, but he is not shorter on talent and has a much easier path to a starting signal caller spot than the other two. After dismantling Alabama’s top-rated defense in the BCS Championship game and capping his illustrious college career in style, Watson was drafted by Houston with the 12th pick overall.
While Trubisky and Mahomes are going to have to overtake highly-paid proven players to become generals of their offenses, all Watson has to do is outplay Tom Savage during training camp. Savage has zero touchdown passes in 92 career pass attempts and has a propensity for getting injured whenever he is gifted the opportunity to play. Watson is even money to be the starter when training camp breaks, and as long as he does not pull a Brock Osweiler and can consistently get the ball to top target DeAndre Hopkins, Watson could put together a season that rivals what Prescott does.
Are there any late-rounders that could be the Dak Prescott of 2017? Cleveland’s DeShone Kizer is a second-round pick who has to emerge victorious over Cody Kessler and the aforementioned Osweiler in Cleveland’s three-headed quarterback competition. If that happens and Kizer gets to throw to Corey Coleman, Kenny Britt and first-round pick David Njoku, he could definitely have some fantasy worth. San Francisco drafted C.J. Beathard in the third round, and the 49ers could be quick to shove aside mediocre veterans Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley early in the season to make way for their rookie if things go south quicker than a flock of birds migrating for the winter.
Will any rookie quarterback be more valuable in fantasy football than Prescott in 2017? Watson is the only in my mind who has a realistic chance. Are any of these rookies going to be a better get in dynasty leagues, though? It would not amaze me if Watson or Trubisky becomes more valuable long-term than Dallas’ deep thrower. Remember, they were drafted in the first round, while Prescott was drafted in the fourth, and while Prescott is a solid quarterback who can make plays with his feet and arm, he is the quarterback in a run-first offense. Watson is a dynamic dual threat with more game-breaking ability who has proven he can play at an all-star level in the biggest games, and Trubisky has a cannon arm and can make throws anywhere on the field. The bottom line is that Prescott might best the rookies in 2017, but I would not count on him being more valuable than them by the time 2018 and 2019 roll around.
