RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~50 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~75
ANALYSIS: Damien Harris is going into his third season and has solidified his role as the primary running back for the Patriots. Typically, the Patriots have been a nightmare backfield for fantasy. Just when we think we have the backfield figured out, head coach Bill Belichick throws a wrench into everything. However, I think this year will be different since their roles are locked in after Sony Michel was traded to the Los Angeles Rams.
Harris is the clear-cut RB1 who will dominate early downs and goal-line work, James White is the third-down/passing downs back, and preseason breakout rookie Rhamondre Stevenson has earned his place as the handcuff for Harris. Speaking of Harris, fantasy managers should draft him with confidence. He averaged 5.0 yards per carry last year while facing a league-leading 7.4 defenders in the box on average. That efficiency is equal to Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, and Jonathan Taylor, and better than Chris Carson and Ezekiel Elliott. His efficiency is even more impressive when you take into account that he saw 99% of his touches on first and second down, and exactly 0 touches on third down.
This year should be even better for Harris now that the Patriots upgraded their offensive line and signed tight-ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry in free agency. Two tight-end sets will mean a lot of action for the running backs, and the Patriots were already 3rd in rush attempts last year. The major problem with Harris was that his upside was capped with Cam Newton under center because Newton handled the majority of goal-line carries. However, now that rookie quarterback Mac Jones has secured the starting role, and Newton is out of the picture, Harris gets a significant bump in fantasy projections because he will be the featured running back at the goal-line.
Remember when LeGarrette Blount had 18 rushing touchdowns, most of which came from inside the 10-yard line? I love targeting Harris as my RB3 or RB4 because the path to an RB2 finish is wide open, and his ADP still sits firmly in the seventh round at RB32. He will probably be closer to RB25 by the time the season starts, because ADP has not had enough time to adjust yet since the Michel trade and Newton getting released, but that is still excellent value for a running back who should see a floor of 225 carries on an offense that is no stranger to the red zone.
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