Dan Haren (SP, MIA) - Waiver Wire Analysis

BALLER MOVE: Add in Very Deep Leagues / Matchup Streamer

OWNED IN: 31% of Fleaflicker Leagues

ANALYSIS: So you are still chugging along with an offense that can easily win you your league, but you need one more SP to really seal it. You looked into J.A. Happ, but then you remembered you want someone good. The next name you come across is Dan Haren, a pitcher that once earned the title of fantasy ace. He is 4-1 with a strong 2.68 ERA this season. Owned in just a paltry 62% of CBS leagues, could he be the answer?

Probably not, as his once elite stuff has deteriorated to the point that he is averaging just 5.84 K/9. That just does not move the needle in any format that acknowledges the existence of the K. In 2014, only two of his pitches graded out as above average: a 2 seamer worth 0.13 runs above average per 100 thrown and a knucklecurve worth 0.84 by the same metric. His fastball has lost velocity three years running, now averaging between 86 and 87 mph most of the time. As recently as 2013, Haren posted an above average K rate, but it does not seem to be coming back.

His current success is not supported by skill (FIP of 4.62) but by luck, as evidenced by a shockingly low .194 BABIP against so far this season. This is partially attributable to a new fly ball tendency: While Haren has historically been a ground ball guy (42.4% career ground ball rate), he is actually allowing more balls in the air this season (46.3%). This might help his BABIP, but will hurt him in ERA when the homers that arise from his increased flies and steady 12% HR/FB rate begin to come with men on base. Thus far, he has managed to strand 89.8% of base runners. No way that number holds for an entire campaign, especially with such a low strikeout rate.

Finally, Haren has been fortunate in the quality of opposition he has faced: PHI twice, SF, WAS, ATL, and TB. Only the Nationals in that group have a decent attack on their best day, and they chased him after 5 IP. Even the Phillies managed to hit him hard on their second try, and they have been terrible. Maybe Haren can be streamed in his first start of the year against weaker teams, but even they fare better in a second attempt. Overall, it is tough to recommend Haren for anything more than emergency duty.