Is D'Andre Swift Worth a Top-20 Draft Pick?

Detroit Lions running back D'Andre Swift is gearing up for his third NFL season. The 23-year-old running back out of Georgia entered the league as a  darling with plenty of hype but he has yet to truly break out as a fantasy asset.

Swift has flashed plenty of potential over the first two years of his career but he has also failed to claim a role as the team's bell cow back while struggling with injuries including a concussion in 2020 and an A/C joint sprain in 2021.

With fantasy drafts just around the corner, fantasy managers will need to spend at least a second-round pick to procure Swift's services for the upcoming season. So let's take a look into whether Swift is a good fantasy pick this year.

D'Andre Swift Overview

Swift was selected with the third pick in the second round of the 2020 NFL draft out of the University of Georgia. The talented running back has appeared in 26 of a possible 33 games for Detroit thus far due to the aforementioned injuries. Over those two seasons, Swift has rushed 265 times for 1,138 yards and 13 touchdowns while tacking on 108 catches for 809 yards and another four scores.

Overall, Swift is averaging 15.4 PPR fantasy points per game over his career while splitting carries relatively evenly with teammates such as Jamaal Williams (2021) and Adrian Peterson (2020).

That being said, Swift has far outproduced his fellow backfield mates in the passing attack, accounting for 62 of the 106 running back receptions last season and 46 of 83 two years ago in his rookie campaign.

Can D'Andre Swift Carve Out A Larger Role?

As mentioned previously, the Lions have been hesitant to install Swift as their workhorse back, with the explosive runner splitting work with teammates such as Jamaal Williams, Adrian Peterson, Craig Reynolds, and Godwin Igwebuike. That could partially be because Swift has struggled with injury over his career, missing four games as a rookie and another three in 2021.

Are the Lions simply following suit with the rest of the league and deploying a multi-player backfield or is Swift not cut out for a full-time role in the NFL? The third-year back is clearly the most explosive and talented back on the Detroit roster.

The team decision-makers certainly must be hoping that he can stay on the field and force the Lions coaches to entrust him with more touches on the field in 2022. Earlier in the offseason, running backs coach Duce Staley challenged Swift to play through pain more in the upcoming season.

Running back is one of the most injury-prone positions in all of football so it is hard to say whether Swift is injury-prone or if he has just had bad luck thus far in his NFL career. That being said, he was a durable player in college at Georgia and there are also reports that Swift bulked up in the offseason to be able to withstand the punishment that a typical NFL running back takes every week.

Should I Draft D'Andre Swift Early In Fantasy?

When Swift is on the field, he is an electric ball carrier who can score from anywhere on the field. The 23-year-old has shown that he can lead a fantasy backfield as he has logged eight RB1 weeks across his 26 NFL contests, with five of those coming last season.

Add in the fact that Detroit has an excellent offensive line, anchored by potential top-five linemen in Penei Sewell and Frank Ragnow, and Swift could smash in 2022.

While it is not ideal that he doesn't see a larger portion of the carries, it is worth noting that Swift should continue to see the majority of the work in the passing attack.

Studies over the years, including one here at RotoBaller by Michael Florio, have shown that running back targets are worth at minimum twice as many PPR fantasy points as carries.

If anything, Detroit allowing Jamaal Williams to soak up low-value carries between the 20s should theoretically allow Swift to stay healthier and on the field, while at the same time keeping him available to soak up those high-value targets in a Detroit offense that had 106 total running back receptions in 2021, fourth-most in the NFL.

Fantasy managers should be targeting Swift in the second round of drafts this season, especially if they take a wide receiver with their first pick. Swift has the potential to finish as a top-three running back in 2022 if he is finally able to put it all together, making the risk worth the reward for this undervalued potential fantasy stud.

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