Dansby Swanson (SS, ATL) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~210

CURRENT ADP: ~246 overall

ANALYSIS:

Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson was in the midst of a breakout season in 2019 before he suffered a heel injury in July which cost him five weeks. In the first half of 2019, Swanson posted a .270 average with 17 home runs, 58 RBI, and seven steals. Due to his injury, his final 2019 totals would not amount to much more. With just 142 additional at-bats after the All-Star break, Swanson finished 2019 with a .251 average, 17 homers, 65 RBI and 10 steals. As a result of his total 2019 numbers and poor second half, his ADP of 246 far undervalues Swanson’s potential for 2020.

When analyzing Swanson, owners should take into consideration the impact his heel injury had on his overall totals and primarily reference his first-half output. In 2019, despite his post-All-Star break figures, Swanson still set a career-high in home runs and RBI to go with a career-best barrel rate of 10.1%. In addition, Swanson posted an average exit velocity of 89.8 mph which was greater than that of Fernando Tatis Jr., a player who is being taken about 200 picks earlier in most mixed-league drafts. Moreover, Swanson posted an exit velocity on FB/LD of 93.1 mph which was greater than Nolan Arenado and equal to Justin Turner. So, he’s clearly in good company.

Swanson has had an extended offseason to recover from his heel injury. Considering his 2019 metrics, first-half numbers, and elite sprint speed in the 88th percentile of MLB, Swanson certainly has the potential for a 20-20 season in 2020. There is no question that Swanson is a potential sleeper in a potent Braves lineup who could return top-100 value this year.