RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~53 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~60
ANALYSIS: The Chicago Bears are likely to be among the NFL's worst teams in 2022. Only the Seahawks, Falcons, Texans, and Jets have a lower win total over/under at DraftKings Sportsbook. If this holds, Chicago would be in a lot of situations where passing is a necessity to stage a comeback.
This begs the question: which receivers would Bears QB Justin Fields be throwing to? Byron Pringle, who has just 67 receptions through three seasons in the league? Equanimeous St. Brown, who has just 37 in the same timeframe? N'Keal Harry, who was traded from New England after failing to catch on after three years? Velus Jones Jr., who didn't break out in college until the age of 24? None of these options inspire confidence.
No, when Fields needs a downfield threat, he will be targeting Darnell Mooney. Tight end Cole Kmet will siphon some targets, but the real prize is Mooney. The athletic wideout already saw a lofty 26.7 percent target share in 2021; now that Allen Robinson has left Chicago for the Rams, this number should only increase. When he can make plays like the one below, it's easy to see why.
Fields should improve as a passer in his second year in the league, which would greatly benefit Mooney. Mooney had the 17th-most receiving yards last season but the ninth-most unrealized air yards, suggesting there was room to increase production even at the existing target rate. He also displayed a great ability to find separation from defenders; his 1.96 yards of average separation ranked seventh among wideouts.
Mooney will be peppered with targets to an extent unmatched by other receivers near his ADP. Jerry Jeudy and JuJu Smith-Schuster, for example, do not have as clear of a path to massive volume. Mooney is going as the WR27 in drafts, a position he should easily outperform barring injuries.
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