David Dahl (OF, COL) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~120

CURRENT ADP: ~147 overall

ANALYSIS: Dahl hit the ball harder in 2019, with a 1% increase in Brl% and .023 improvement in xwOBAcon. Dahl was also able to find his sweet spot more often, with a 6% increase.  If Dahl could maintain these improvements, it bodes well for his chances of continuing to hit at a 20-HR pace in this upcoming shortened season. Dahl also has above-average speed, so there’s definitely some untapped stolen base potential here, as his career-high is only five stolen bases. He finished with a .302 BA/.353 OBP/.524 SLG slash line with 15 HR and four steals in only 413 PA. His season was cut short by a leg injury in early August. The shortened season would obviously increase Dahl’s chances of staying on the field, making him a more appealing option at OF.

Entering his age-26 season, Dahl has his best baseball ahead of him. The only issue with him as a player is his injuries. Simply put, when Dahl has been on the field, he has delivered strong production. Hitting in Coors Field is obviously a massive bonus to his fantasy value. This is a player who has legitimate .300 BA/25 HR/15 SB upside, with strong potential in run production due to his team context. Dahl is now healthy with a chip on his shoulder to prove the doubters wrong.

A projected pace of .295 BA, 72 R, 23 HR, 77 RBI, and 4 SB would give Dahl an Expected Draft Value of 116.2, which is 50 picks higher than his 146.7 NFBC ADP. This is a conservative projection, as Dahl should have no problems exceeding those R and RBI totals. Dahl should provide terrific value in 2020.