RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~220 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~250
Even though getting 10+ points per game from your defense is beneficial, we still don't want to reach and draft a D/ST early in our fantasy drafts. While some defenses like the Ravens, Steelers, and Bears have proven to be season-long holds in years past, you're far more likely to stream defenses each week. With that in mind, I'm going to focus on my D/ST's on teams with strong defensive talent as well as their early-season schedules.
I've created a D/ST Rankings metric that weighs together all of the stats I've come to believe are most important for determining if a defense will be a strong fantasy unit: pressure rate, sacks, quarterback hurries, drives ending in a turnover, drives ending in an offensive score, and yards allowed per play.
ANALYSIS:
The Broncos have always been a formidable unit, but they struggled a little bit towards the end of last year, which is understandable when you get zero games from Von Miller, seven games from A.J. Bouye, six games from Mike Purcell, and three games from Jurrell Casey. Obviously, the biggest difference-maker there is Miller, who is one of the premier defenders in the NFL and should be fully healthy entering the 2021 season. That alone is a massive upgrade for a defense that still finished ninth in sacks with 42 on the season.
The Broncos will no longer have Bouye, but they brought in Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby to a secondary that includes Kareem Jackson and ball-hawk Justin Simmons. That should make the secondary slightly above average at worst, which is more than enough when you are pairing Von Miller with Bradley Chubb and Dre'Mont Jones and also blocking up the interior with Mike Purcell.
If the Broncos can finish just outside the top-10 last year while missing the level of talent that they were, I fully expect them to return to being an impact defense week in and week out if they remain fully healthy in 2021. Plus, look at those first three weeks. Woo boy.
EARLY SCHEDULE: @ Giants, @ Jaguars, vs Jets, vs Ravens
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