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Is Denver Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders Doomed to Regress in 2015?

Last season Emmanuel Sanders had his best season of his career but don't come expecting a repeat this year. Currently Sanders draft ADP has him placed at 34th overall and 15th out of all wideouts in standard formats. With that current spot he's ranked higher than the likes of Jordan Matthews, Andre Johnson, Russell Wilson just to name of a few.

If the experts are expecting a repeat of last season his ADP makes sense but the possibility of that happening this year are unlikely. In fact, Sanders has said, "My goal is really to try to get a 1,000 yards to just help this team win ball games." The key word he mentioned in this quote...TRY.  He will be trying to get 1,000 yards and that goal alone is 400 yards shorter than last seasons numbers.

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This season the Denver Broncos offense will be a led by Gary Kubiak who's ran his offenses mainly through the ground game. Last season, as the OC for the Ravens, Kubiak had numerous top 10 rushing statistics (yards/g, avg/carry, total yards, rushing tds) and was just outside of the top 10 with carries/game. He has stated during this offseason that he will stick with a no-huddle approach that the Bronco's had last season but I expect him eventually implement the huddle as he had with his previous teams. With the introduction of the huddle plus the increase number of running plays from last season almost always means fewer total plays which means less opportunities for Sanders.

My second reason has to do with Manning and he's starting to get a lot of tread on the tires, so to speak. Towards the end of the 2014 regular season we started seeing that father time may be catching up with Peyton which could lead the Broncos to utilize the run more often. Many fantasy writers have cautioned that Manning could be a 'bust' this season. If Manning has a down season it will impact all of his receivers and the one that I expect will get the bigger hit will be Sanders over featured wideout Demaryius Thomas.

The loss of Julius Thomas does not necessarily mean more targets or opportunities for Sanders, in fact it could mean the opposite. Thomas is gifted more with a receiver's body (6'5" 250lbs) and put pressure on defenses up the seams which provided plenty of running room for Sanders out of the flank routes. Without Thomas on the team expect defenses to spend more time focusing on eliminating Sanders.

Another reason for concern is that there has been rumors of Sanders being placed in the slot role in the 2015 season which would be a change from the outside spot he played last season. With him moving, his average depth of targets and 'home run' plays will likely be less than last season. This could be a benefit for him in PPR leagues but will almost definitely not benefit him in standard leagues. Lastly, I will conclude that Sanders is currently dealing with a hamstring issue and has been out for almost over 2 weeks. It is likely that he should be ready for the start of the season but soft-tissue injuries can linger and impact him if not treated properly. While this is a slight risk it is something to be watching this preseason as its important that he gets practice and reps with the new offense this preseason. All in all, Sanders is a great player but don't expect him to repeat his results from last season and at his current draft price I'd rather find other WR options with higher upside.

 

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