Derek Carr (QB, LV) - 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~170 Overall / Waiver Wire

Current ADP: ~200 (Undrafted in 12-team leagues)

The quarterback position is the most predictable in terms of roles and who's who in the pecking order of the different NFL franchises. That is why no quarterback has seen a super-drop or super-rise in ADP during the past few weeks leading up to the climax of the fantasy draft-season. No news has dropped about the supposedly ongoing quarterback battle between Carr and Marcus Mariota, so it makes sense to find Carr has the biggest faller of late... with just a 4.5 ADP drop in the past few weeks.

As I see it (and it is the same in the case of Trubisky/Foles, for example), Carr will hold onto the starting role at least for a few weeks (three? four?) before Vegas decides to move on if he puts on a streak of duds to start the season. But there is no chance Carr is not your Raiders' starter in Week 1. It makes sense. Carr finished 2019 with 4,054 passing yards on 361 completions, and 21 TDs against just 8 INTs. Not mindblowing numbers, but enough to have him ranked as the QB17 of the year. Compared to Mariota (1,203 yds, 7 TDs, 2 INTs) those numbers were legendary at the very least.

Carr projects to just 258 PPR points in 2020 per PFF, which would make him the 19th-best QB in the league. Fantasy GMs have mostly stopped drafting Carr as a late-rounder and are in fact leaving him on draft boards. With his long-term future in the air and his back against the ropes (Mariota is waiting in the wings, remember), you lose nothing getting Carr late if you plan on streaming QBs for the year and don't want to spend any high draft pick on any bonafide player at the position. You know Carr will be starting at least for a few weeks, and if/when he flops you could just move on to other option.