One of the faces of the first Chicago Cubs team to win a World Series in over 100 years will be wearing Cardinal red next season. After weighing his options, Dexter Fowler chose to leave the Windy City to play for hated division rival St. Louis.
While Cubs fans are no doubt disappointed, what will Fowler's move mean for his fantasy value and that of his new teammates?
Fowler is one of those players whose value extends beyond statistics. You can tell as much because he has been at the forefront of post-Series celebrations and media appearances despite spending only two years as a Cub.
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2017 Fantasy Baseball Outlooks
Much like the man he essentially switched places with, Jason Heyward, Fowler is primarily valued for his defense and leadership. At age 30, he is still improving his fielding to become an asset rather than a liability. His Rtot (Total Fielding Runs Above Average) jumped from 7 up to 16 in his two years with Chicago. Remarkably, he had posted a negative value every year before joining the Cubs in 2015, including a -17 in 2014 with the Astros. Four years ago, he actually led the league in errors among all NL center fielders, so the turnaround is noteworthy.
Defense alone doesn't get you five years and $82.5 million, though. It doesn't win fantasy championships either. Fowler earned his first All-Star nod based on the merit of his strong first half with the bat. He slashed .290/.398/.483 with 29 extra-base hits and six steals. He slowed down a bit in the second half, hitting .261 with 16 extra-base hits in just 20 fewer at-bats. His overall stats aren't overwhelming from a rotisserie league standpoint - .276 AVG, 13 HR, 48 RBI and 13 SB. Fowler won't be anywhere near the top 20 outfielders for fantasy purposes, but he profiles nicely as a third or fourth OF who can fill multiple categories. In leagues with expanded categories, he presents slightly more value thanks to a strong on-base percent.
Fowler will hit leadoff for the redbirds after posting a .393 OBP last season. While the Cardinals' current lineup isn't infused with the same young slugging talent as the Cubs, a combination of Matt Carpenter/Stephen Piscotty/Aledmys Diaz hitting in some order behind him shouldn't hurt his run-scoring value too much. Carpenter is the one whose outlook may shift the most. He hit at the top of the lineup for 511 of his 566 plate appearances last season, hitting .276 with 20 HR and 65 RBI in that spot. Nearly three-fourths of his career at-bats have come from the lead-off spot, where he has a .295/.387/.485 slash line. In the No. 2 spot, that line drops to .257/.350/.395. A drop to the second, third or even fourth spot in the lineup should mean a sacrifice of average and runs for RBI production. His overall value won't suffer, but existing Carpenter owners should prepare for a shift in value.
The main beneficiary of Fowler's presence could be Stephen Piscotty. Entering his third big league season, Piscotty drove in 85 runs last season. He did so often with the likes of Jedd Gyorko, Kolten Wong, or Greg Garcia ahead of him in the lineup. Piscotty hit .305 with men on base and .363 with runners in scoring position in 2016. A 100-RBI season is well within reach if Fowler sustains his excellent OBP.
As far as the Cubs are concerned, they could slide Heyward over to center and quite possibly to the leadoff spot too. That may seem like a horrible idea, but he does have a respectable .346 career OBP and he strikes out far less than Fowler. In his two seasons with Chicago, Fowler stuck out a whopping 278 times compared to 183 for Heyward. It's hard to imagine he won't be much better this year, but it's also hard to place much faith in him as anything but a late-round flier. Ben Zobrist and his .361 OBP are also a possibility. Either way, the middle of the Cubs order will be just fine. They may just have find someone else to bring out for the parade if they make it two championships in a row.