RADIO
The conference championships are set with the New England Patriots set to host the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC and the Philadelphia Eagles welcoming the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC. The Pats are big 9.5-point favorites at home, while the Vikes are 3.5-point road chalk. The Eagles covered and won straight-up against Atlanta last weekend, but that storyline has faded into the background thanks to Minnesota’s historic walk-off win over New Orleans. The Vikings now look like a team fated for glory, and are just one win away from clinching a spot in Super Bowl 52 in their home stadium, which would be an NFL first. Whether you’re betting on the AFC/NFC title games or sticking to fantasy, it’s integral to figure out who’s primed and betting against the spread for such a big NFL week.
Jaguars vs Patriots: Sunday, Jan. 21, 3:05 PM ET
Tom Brady is coming off a vintage performance, racking up over 330 passing yards and three touchdowns, as is his new workhorse running back, Dion Lewis (15 carries, 62 yards; 9 receptions, 79 yards). But now the Pats have to go against a Jacksonville defense that ranked first in defensive DVOA and the New England backfield may be healthier, meaning fewer carries/targets for Lewis. Should you bank on more big days from Brady and Lewis or fade them in the AFC title game?
While Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers were able to gash the Jacksonville secondary for nearly 470 yards and five touchdowns, do not expect similar numbers from Brady on Sunday. The game-script, which saw the Jags jump out to a huge early lead, forced Pittsburgh to throw early and often. (Big Ben finished the day with 58 pass attempts.) The Patriots aren’t likely to fall in a similar hole. Their much-maligned defense has suddenly become one of the stingiest in the league, and the offense rarely turns the ball over. The AFC Championship is going to be a low-scoring affair in which both teams try to control the clock. Brady and Lewis will both come with massive price-tags and should be approached cautiously.
Does that mean you should fade Jacksonville RB Leonard Fournette, as well? After posting 119 total yards and three touchdowns versus Pittsburgh, he will be a hot commodity in DFS this weekend. If he’s 100% healthy, he’s worth the hype; the Jags will want to go run-heavy, as usual, to keep Blake Bortles from losing them the game. But the risk that Fournette is slowed by his re-aggravated ankle injury is too large. He had to leave last weekend’s game in the first half and was noticeably less explosive in the second (13 carries for 27 yards), as TJ Yeldon ate into his workload. There will be better options available at lower prices. Keep your eye on his injury status over the course of the week, and potentially jump on Yeldon if Fournette looks like he’ll be limited.
Vikings vs Eagles: Sunday, Jan. 21, 6:40 PM ET
Despite Minnesota coming off a thrilling and high-scoring 29-24 win, there aren’t many players entering the NFC Championship on a high, fantasy-wise, other than Stefon Diggs. The last-second TD pass from Case Keenum to Diggs was Keenum’s only touchdown on the day, and before that miracle grab, Diggs had just five catches for 76 yards. While both running backs (Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon) found the end zone, neither did much else. Murray had 67 total yards, while McKinnon had 40.
On the Eagles side, Nick Foles failed to crack 250 yards and didn’t throw a TD. Lead back Jay Ajayi had a respectable 98 total yards, but again had no scores and also coughed the ball up. The only player to put it in the paint, LeGarrette Blount, had 19 total yards. It was basically a disaster if you started any Eagles.
But hope springs for the NFC title game, at least on the Minnesota side. The Vikings wanted to keep Drew Brees off the field last weekend and were not as aggressive as they could have been. They won’t have the same fears facing Foles on Sunday. Plus, the strength of the Philly defense is its front-four. Fletcher Cox and Timmy Jernigan are sublime run-stuffers, but the secondary can get got, especially on double-moves. The two Viking wideouts, Diggs and Adam Thielen, should be worthwhile DFS plays, especially riding the high of the Minnesota Miracle. Keenum will likely be the best value at QB, since Brady will cost an arm and a leg, Nick Foles is Nick Foles, and Blake Bortles is more mercurial than a malfunctioning thermometer in a heat wave.
