RADIO
In the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs, there were several disappointing performances from quarterbacks which contributed to low production from some wide receivers. D.K. Metcalf ended the week as the No. 1 receiver and was a bright spot, but on the low side, Mohamed Sanu was absolutely dreadful, hauling in just one of his five targets for just 11 yards. Here is a complete statistical recap of the Wildcard Round recommendations:
- John Brown - 4 catches, 50 yards, 16 passing yards, 1 TD
- Cole Beasley - 4 catches, 44 yards
- Michael Thomas - 7 catches, 70 yards
- Mohamed Sanu - 1 catch, 11 yards
- D.K. Metcalf - 7 catches, 160 yards, 1 TD
This week, I am staying away from A.J. Brown for the second week in a row. Brown is good against man coverage and that's what the Ravens play for the most part, but the Ravens also have solid man-to-man cornerbacks who are capable of keeping Brown in check. When targeted in the passing game, all of the Ravens cornerbacks surrender about 10 yards-per-catch while in coverage, and Marcus Peters is the only cornerback that's surrendered more than three touchdowns (five) on the season. That being said, Peters is an aggressive defensive back and Brown may be able to get by him if Peters makes an aggressive play on the ball, but I don't know if I want to take a chance on that happening. On another note, although the Ravens rush defense gave up a stingy 93.4 yards-per-game on the ground this year, they did give up 4.4 yards-per-carry which tied them with the Cardinals for 12th-worst in the league. If the Titans commit to the running game again this week, Derrick Henry may come through for a second week in a row. I am going to fade the Vikings receivers this week as well. Although the 49ers Defense was vulnerable at times down the stretch, they were banged up. They are now rested and healthy and will likely return to the form which led them to surrender a league-best 5.9 yards-per-pass. On top of that, Stefon Diggs has been sick this week and Adam Thielen suffered an ankle injury in practice which makes things a little dicey.
I am also fading both Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf this week. The Packers Defense has given up just 19 passing touchdowns this season and just 232.6 yards-per-game through the air while giving up a healthy 4.7 yards-per-carry which is seventh-worst in the league. This leads me to believe Seattle will lean on the running game this week and pound the rock with Marshawn Lynch early and often. Although the Buffalo Bills lost against the Houston Texans last week, they put up the most total offense out of all the teams competing in the Wildcard Round. The Bills were able to run the ball for 172 yards and pass for 253 yards against that Texans Defense, both marks were second-best on the week. That being said, I am going to lean on Kansas City Chiefs players this weekend for the Divisional Round. As you will read below, many of the best wide receiver plays on the week are higher-end guys who are on the expensive side. That being said, Mark Ingram is the forth-most expensive running back on the board even though he is nursing a calf injury and Dalvin Cook, who is the third-most-expensive running back on the board has a difficult matchup against the 49ers Defense. If you roll with just one of the higher-end running backs and go with a guy like Duke Johnson as your RB2, you will be able to fit two of these stud, higher-priced receivers into your DFS lineups this weekend.
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Divisional Round WR/CB Matchups to Exploit
Davante Adams ($8,400 FanDuel / $7,800 DraftKings) vs Tre Flowers
The Seahawks Defense has been vulnerable against the pass all season and Davante Adams is the main threat in the Packers passing game. The other Packers receivers are simply too hard to trust, and over his last three games, Adams has at least 13 targets in each, and has gained at least 93 yards and scored in two of those three games. The Seahawks defense struggles against the run, giving up 4.9 yards-per-carry, but this is the playoffs, and the Packers aren't going to hold anything back. They're going to feed their studs to win this game with Adams being one of them. While the Seahawks give up 263.9 passing yards-per-game, they have only surrendered 19 touchdowns through the air which ties them with the Packers for fifth-best in the league. While Adams isn't a good bet to score this week, he is likely to get targeted north of 10 times and rack up over 100 yards. If Seattle makes this game a shootout, Adams will go off.
Marquise Brown ($5,300 FanDuel / $4,400 DraftKings) vs Tramaine Brock
The Titans Defense has given up 55 plays of 20+ receiving yards on the season and Tramaine Brock has given up the second-most receiving yards while in coverage out of all the Titans cornerbacks even though he hasn't played in all of their games. Brock surrenders a catch rate of just under 70% and opposing quarterbacks have a rating of 110.7 while throwing in his direction. Out of the 472 yards that Brock has given up in coverage this year, 222 of them have come after the catch, which means there's a really good chance that Marquise Brown catches one and takes it a long way to the house this weekend. The Titans are very good against the run, giving up just 4.0 yards-per-carry, which means Lamar Jackson may have to win this game with his arm, especially with Mark Ingram still feeling the effects of his calf injury.
Tyreek Hill ($7,900 FanDuel / $7,600 DraftKings) vs Gareon Conley
Nobody in the NFL can run with Tyreek Hill, and the Chiefs will likely take a few shots to him early in an effort to put some points on the board quickly against the shaky Texans secondary. The Texans Defense gave up 58 plays of 20+ passing yards during the regular season which was eighth-worst in the league which indicates they are susceptible to the big play. These two teams faced off earlier this year in Hill's first game back from injury, and he was able to haul in five of his 10 targets for 80 yards and two touchdowns.
Deebo Samuel ($6,100 FanDuel / $5,200 DraftKings) vs Xavier Rhodes
Xavier Rhodes played very well last week against the New Orleans Saints, but he was banged up in the game, suffering what appeared to be a shoulder injury. Deebo Samuel is extremely difficult to bring down after the catch and if Rhodes is still suffering the effects of his injury, he may have trouble containing Samuel. Even without the injury, Rhodes has given up more yards after the catch than any other Vikings cornerback this season which sets up well for Samuel.
DeAndre Hopkins ($8,100 FanDuel / $7,400 DraftKings) vs Bashaud Breeland
The Chiefs Defense has been playing very well over the last few weeks and I understand that. However, the Chiefs are going to put a lot of points on the board against the vulnerable Texans defense which will force Deshaun Watson to put the ball in the air often. The Chiefs are almost double-digit favorites in this game, and if the Texans go down, they will go down swinging, throwing the ball to their No. 1 receiver, DeAndre Hopkins. Bashaud Breeland and the rest of the Chiefs secondary is playing very well, but Hopkins will get his. I would, however, rank Hopkins behind both Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill this week.
